The Midlands - Weather Chat

[Lukey]

Oh no, 12z euro4 not looking good     I know it's only one run but at this stage It looks like yet another West Midlands let-down!  

[weirpig]

In these situations though, shower distribution can change rapidly. The radar will be the best thing to follow now.

I remember in 2010 when Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire got hammered from that Easterly, what the NMM high-res model was forecasting was about 50-100 miles wrong.

I wouldn't take the EURO4 as gospel.

When it was showing  quite a bit of snow  i thought the model was spot on.  now i realise it is totally unreliable  ghastly model

[Will Padz]

Woohoo â„ï¸â„ï¸â„ï¸

[shaky]

12z euro4 is no downgrade still got a similar theme going for tomorrow!! I think too many of you are paying a little too much detail to these precipitation charts!! It all gona come down to radar watching! ! It still has a streamer coming in from the cheshire gap tomorrow! !

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Oh no, 12z euro4 not looking good     I know it's only one run but at this stage It looks like yet another West Midlands let-down!

 

Was never going to be any now at low levels, mild anyway/thaw friday, Fun and games should begin say this time on Saturday when the proper cold air hits us

[Guest]

NMM 12z also going to break a few hearts with a more northerly track of the ppn now expected.

Nowcast, nowcast, nowcast.

[Dancerwithwings]

NMM 12z also going to break a few hearts with a more northerly track of the ppn now expected.

Which NMM you looking at ? I'm still waiting for the 12z http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=330

[PolarWarsaw]

Euro4 showing accumulation now non-existant for the Midlands

 

Now? Only a couple did and they were mostly over the peaks. It's never been a big trend, ever. 

[Mair Snaw]

Woohoo â„ï¸â„ï¸â„ï¸

Im moving to Glossop... decision made... the wife wont mind I shall tell her its lovely and warm in the summer but wont say anything about winter..lol

[PolarWarsaw]

Oh no, 12z euro4 not looking good     I know it's only one run but at this stage It looks like yet another West Midlands let-down!

 

Sorry what downgrades? We have a radar watch for the evening and the chance of a few showers. Computer models are now useless and in these kinds of scenarios it's just a case of radar watching. Always has been and always will be. This event was never widespread, nor expected to cause any distruption - a bit of ice and hopefully a few flakes for people to see. Derbyshire, hills etc may do well. 

 

I honestly don't understand what many are expecting tonight? A sugar coating, a few showers and some radar watching IS/WAS and always has been the order of this evening? Anyone expecting inches of snow were either stupid, or can't read charts correctly, lol.

[Strider]

Now? Only a couple did and they were mostly over the peaks. It's never been a big trend, ever. 

 

I haven't been frame watching every run, just thought it's right to mention that so people don't get their hopes up. Hope it's wrong though

[Mair Snaw]

Blizzard!!!!!!!

[Lukey]

Was never going to be any now at low levels, mild anyway/thaw friday, Fun and games should begin say this time on Saturday when the proper cold air hits us

 

Hopefully - Ill be in Cardiff then so Ill definitely miss any snow (and probably the cold too)!  I really don't like these 'blink and you'll miss it'/ 'will it, won't it' showery type set-ups, so annoying.  Why can't we just get a decent frontal snow setup - we'd all be happy then!

[weirpig]

Sorry what downgrades? We have a radar watch for the evening and the chance of a few showers. Computer models are now useless and in these kinds of scenarios it's just a case of radar watching. Always has been and always will be. This event was never widespread, nor expected to cause any distruption - a bit of ice and hopefully a few flakes for people to see. Derbyshire, hills etc may do well. 

 

I honestly don't understand what many are expecting tonight? A sugar coating, a few showers and some radar watching IS/WAS and always has been the order of this evening? Anyone expecting inches of snow were either stupid, or can't read charts correctly, lol.

I dont think anybody was expecting much snow  tonight. and when you compare the euro 4  fron the 06z and the 12 z  there is a downgrade on precipitation  so he is just staing what it shows.  Also is there any need to be so bloody rude  and then put lol after it 

[Will Padz]

Im moving to Glossop... decision made... the wife wont mind I shall tell her its lovely and warm in the summer but wont say anything about winter..lol

I think netweather forecast going a bit mental! â„ï¸â„ï¸

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hopefully - Ill be in Cardiff then so Ill definitely miss any snow (and probably the cold too)!  I really don't like these 'blink and you'll miss it'/ 'will it, won't it' showery type set-ups, so annoying.  Why can't we just get a decent frontal snow setup - we'd all be happy then!

 

hopefully to come next week

[Dancerwithwings]

Was never going to be any now at low levels, mild anyway/thaw friday, Fun and games should begin say this time on Saturday when the proper cold air hits us

What is your thoughts regarding low levels.... 1m asl... Loads of reports of snow today across the MIDLANDS

[Essan]

Whilst following the forum avidly, I rarely post.

 

However I was just wondering if I was correct in thinking, when it comes to showers, models precip charts are even more unreliable and that theyre more to pick up trends/areas more likely to receive shower activity. 

 

Surely its better to look at the radar more so than rely on the models at this time frame?

Spot on!

Overnight and through tomorrow its a matter of radar watching.  Most showers likely to be snow, whatever the models or the MetO/BBC algorithmic not-a-forecast says     Though of course, some people will miss the showers and in a few cases it may be more sleet than snow, though hopefull not.

[PolarWarsaw]

I dont think anybody was expecting much snow  tonight. and when you compare the euro 4  fron the 06z and the 12 z  there is a downgrade on precipitation  so he is just staing what it shows.  Also is there any need to be so bloody rude  and then put lol after it 

 

I'm not being rude towards anybody, yes a computer generated model (virtually useless now) shows a lesser 'pink splodge' of PPN and it's southern extent this evening, but taking that seriously and applying it to your posting is farcical. Sure, it may be a downgrade, but it was never going to be that widespread anyway. I'm trying to help people understand not to get their hopes up, if that's rude - then apologies. I'd sooner forewarn people of the nights potential events than come on here in the morning and see a wave of 'THERE ISN'T 8 INCHES HERE, THIS IS A DISGRACEFUL FORECAST AGAIN' - it's mindless drivel and yes, people would/will 100% post that. 

 

I hope I wake up with a nice covering tommorrow, but it will be a surprise if i do. 

 

Good luck to everyone.

Edited January 28, 2015 by PolarWarsaw

[I remember Atlantic 252]

What is your thoughts regarding low levels.... 1m asl... Loads of reports of snow today across the MIDLANDS

 

less than 150m, ECM seems to bring an interesting setup with monday's low? has it seemingly in a snowy position, where as GFS has it miles too far west

[Wadey]

Has anybody got a chart of the 12z instead of just going downgradeeeeeee

[echobase]

Personally I wouldn`t even fully trust the radar, I`m under a pink blob as I type and nowt is falling!

[cyclonic happiness]

Showers popping up all over the place now, maybe it's gonna be one of those types of snowfalls?

[Gord]

Snowing here right now. Proof that little bits and pieces are going to appear out of nowhere. Putting the tiniest of dustings down!

[weather_it_will]