Atlantic Storms 2nd half of Winter

[Zenarcher]

Some stormy weather is forecast on Monday afternoon through to early Tuesday morning for Northern Ireland, Western and Northern Scotland.

 

The Met Office have a Yellow warning issued for 9am Monday to 9am Tuesday:

 

Strong winds will affect Scotland and Northern Ireland from Monday morning through to Tuesday morning. 60-70 mph gusts are possible in the south of the highlighted area with the potential for 80 mph gusts around exposed parts of western and northern Scotland, particularly later on Monday.

The public should be aware of the potential for disruption from these strong winds.

 

The Chief Forecaster's assessment:

A developing area of low pressure will track northeastwards just to the north of Scotland on Monday, running away into northern Scandinavia on Tuesday. This will bring strengthening winds to the north of the UK as well as a period of heavy rain and snow over higher ground. The strongest winds are expected as the winds veer southwesterly through Monday afternoon and evening.

There remains a little uncertainty in the track and timing of the low pressure and so this alert is likely to be updated in the coming days.

 

The 06z GFS shows things looking rather serious for Western and Northern Scotland with mean speeds reaching 60mph in places,

 

  

 

And gusts to be over 85mph,

 

  

 

There's still a chance that this could upgrade and downgrade still but something to keep a watch on.

[Cookie]

Keeping a very close eye on this

[Zenarcher]

Slight upgrade on the 12z GFS run.

 

Mean speeds for the bottom half of the Western Isles 60 to 72mph and mean speeds of 50 to 60mph for Northern Scotland,

 

 

 

Gusts of 80mph and even just over 90mph,

 

 

[Cookie]

Wow

[Zenarcher]

Looking at the other 12z runs there still is some uncertainty. The ECM and JMA are similar to the GFS but slightly more North West but mostly agree on the same speed of the wind. Some other models point to it being not as strong and shows that it could still downgrade. The Met Office forecast maps are still going for gusts around 60 to 70mph.

[Zenarcher]

Tonight's just your ordinary windy night in some parts of the country with Loch Glascarnoch in Northern Scotland recording a gust of 77mph at 7pm. Makes you wonder what Monday will bring.

[knocker]

The GFS for Monday evening.

Chart weatherbell

 

[Snowyowl9]

Looks nasty this little storm up north.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

Gusts upto 85mph

Edited March 8, 2015 by Snowyowl9

[Zenarcher]

The Met Office have just updated the yellow warning and now are saying wind gusts could reach up to 80mph.

 

Severe gales will affect parts of western Scotland and northern coastal areas of Northern Ireland on Monday, transferring north and east across Scotland on Monday night before clearing northeast Scotland during Tuesday morning. Gusts of 70 to 80 mph are likely in exposed parts of western and northern Scotland. Elsewhere in the warning area, gusts of 60 to 70 mph are possible at times. Large waves will develop around coasts, especially in the west and north. Accompanying the strong winds, there will also be some periods of heavy rain, along with potential for several cm of snow on some high level routes mainly above 300 m during Monday daytime.

The public should be aware of the potential for disruption, particularly to transport and power supplies. 

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment.

 

A developing area of low pressure will track northeastwards just to the north of Scotland on Monday, running away into northern Scandinavia on Tuesday. This will bring strengthening winds to the north of the UK as well as a period of heavy rain and hill snow. There is still some uncertainty over the precise track of this system, so this warning is likely to be updated again on Monday. This latest update removes parts of southern Scotland from the area of risk.

 

The 06z GFS is showing widespread mean wind speeds of 60mph and slightly more in some places.

 

  

 

Gusts over 80mph

 

  

[Cookie]

Think we may see an amber warning

[Liam J]

I think an amber warning will be issued for parts of Scotland with many locations likely to experience some exceptionally strong winds.

Edited March 8, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Cookie]

can see them waiting till tomorrow morning before issuing. 

[YiRda]

showing up nicely on the sat

 

Edited March 8, 2015 by YiRda

[Zenarcher]

This storm is looking really nasty now there's a good chance over 90mph could happen.

 

Mean speeds still around 60mph for Western and Northern Scotland.

 

    

 

Gusts mainly between 70 to 80mph with a chance of 90mph or more at times.

 

    

 

The Met Office weather map shows mainly 60 to 70mph for the SW of Scotland with over 80mph for the South of the Western Isles,

 

 

And the same range of wind speeds for the North West of Scotland,

 

Edited March 8, 2015 by weathermaster

[Cookie]

Seems to have deepend on the latest model runs

[Jo Farrow]

Discussion will be going on now at the Met Office for the public warnings update around 11am The impacts for the central Belt will be one part and the potential storm force winds in the far NW. Remember these warnings include likelihood and impacts now https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82567-met-office-weather-warnings-yellow-amber-red/

snow above 300m for northern Scotland as this moves in too

[Zenarcher]

Winds are starting to pick up now gusts between 50 to 60mph mainly being reported across Ireland and Scotland with 68mph being the highest so far.

 

Monday 3pm mean wind speeds of around 50 to 60mph to the SW of Scotland,

 

 

Gusts ranging from 70 to 85mph in the SW of Scotland,

 

 

Monday 7pm Across Western Scotland mean speeds are around 50 to 60mph,

 

 

Widespread gusts of 50 to 60mph across Northern Ireland and Northern England while most of Scotland see's 60 to 70mph gusts and the Western Isles 80 to 90mph,

 

 

Monday 10pm The strong winds start moving North now and still staying the same mean speeds of 50 to 60mph,

 

 

Gusts of 60 to 70mph are still widespread across Scotland with 80 to 90mph over the North,

 

Edited March 9, 2015 by weathermaster

[Nick F]

My latest blog looks at the storm hitting northern parts tonight:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6504;sess= â€¦

[knocker]

Showing very well

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-3.65,57.29,2223

[Jo Farrow]

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/21055-mar9wv/

 

Getting wild here already and that's only SE Scotland, have to ride my bike mid afternoon 

[Zenarcher]

Met Office have issued a second yellow warning for Western and Northern Scotland,

 

A spell of severe gales and storm force winds is expected to affect the northwest of Scotland later this afternoon and into the evening, when the strongest winds will also affect Orkney. Gusts of 70-75 mph are expected inland and as high as 85 mph along exposed coasts.

 

The public should be aware of the potential for disruption, particularly to transport and power supplies. 

 

This warning should be viewed alongside the wider Yellow Warning for minor impacts.

 

The yellow warning that covers the rest of Scotland,

 

Severe gales will affect parts of western  Scotland and northern coastal areas of Northern Ireland on Monday, transferring north and east across Scotland on Monday night before clearing northeast Scotland early on Tuesday morning. Gusts of 70 to 80 mph are likely in exposed parts of western and northern Scotland. Elsewhere in the warning area, gusts of 60 to 70 mph are possible at times. Large waves will develop around coasts, especially in the west and north. Accompanying the strong winds, there will also be some periods of heavy rain, along with potential for several cm of snow on some high level routes mainly above 300 m during Monday daytime.  

 

The public should be aware of the potential for disruption, particularly to transport and power supplies. 

 

The warning has been update to delay the start time and to curtail the end time of the warning.

Edited March 9, 2015 by weathermaster

[Mokidugway]

No real wind here but getting some persistently heavy rain from its southern flanks ...

[Zenarcher]

Gusts of 50 to 70mph have been reported across Ireland and Scotland so far. Over the next few hours its going to get worse for the NW of Scotland especially.

[Zenarcher]

Strong winds across Ireland are still being reported some places up to 71mph. Parts of Wales and Northern England have picked up in wind speeds with 50 to 60mph gusts. The South West of Scotland right now is taking a real battering the Isle of Barra airport recorded a 90mph gust and South Uist weather station stands at 77mph.

[Liam J]

South Uist now at 89mph http://www.xcweather.co.uk/