Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

[Snowman.]

And look what it brings a mild sector!

 

[Mucka]

And look what it brings a mild sector!

 

 

Well a less cold sector might be more accurate. Given its origin anything to the East of it would be all snow and maybe to the West of it too.

[frosty ground]

And look what it brings a mild sector!

 

So it's not a Polar low......

[Bobd29]

Is this a second low coming in from Iceland on this run?

 

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2793/gfs-0-102_rud2.png

 

Mucka beat me to it!

Looks like it so if the first doesn't get you......With both lows in the airstream it shows how unstable it is and surely there will be imbedded troughs to follow, interesting time early next week

[Mucka]

So it's not a Polar low......

 

Why not? it originates over Iceland. The less cold air is being dragged in around from the West off the Atlantic as it moves South. 

[frosty ground]

Why not? it originates over Iceland. The less cold air is being dragged in around from the West off the Atlantic as it moves South. 

Polar Low's do not have warm sectors...... O that's my understanding....... Surley it's just a regular feature..... 

[Mucka]

Polar Low's do not have warm sectors...... O that's my understanding....... Surley it's just a regular feature..... 

 

Personally I don't mind how it is defined but it forms in cold polar air and could be a decent snow event depending on the track. Of course it may not be there on the next run and be a moot discussion anyway. 

 

Meanwhile the big picture.

 

 

The cold spell was over at this point on the models just a couple of days ago. 

Edited January 29, 2015 by Mucka

[Met4Cast]

I think there's some misunderstanding - The low showing up on the GFS for early next week isn't a polar low, it's just a weak shortwave/low pressure system. The low currently to the North-West of Scotland moving SSE could probably be classified as a Polar Low, though perhaps not in the true classic sense, it certainly isn't far away from one.

 

Out to T150hrs on the 12z GFS and high pressure looks a little better orientated towards Scandi compared with the 06z. Either way, remaining cold to at least the middle of next week.

[The Enforcer]

Just thought I'd illustrate the development of the Fax charts for Midday today from T+120 through to T+0:

 

[warmintim]

Polar Low's do not have warm sectors...... O that's my understanding....... Surley it's just a regular feature..... 

Much as I dislike quoting IF - he is calling it a polar low, and if an official forecaster and an FRMetS is, then I will too! This is exactly the kind of meso scale event that are not picked up by the models.

[Buzz]

For those wishing to discuss the Polar Low, there's a new thread for it here:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82413-tracking-the-potential-polar-low-thursday-into-friday/?hl=%20polar

 

[Mucka]

So, the UKMO, where?

[frosty ground]

So, the UKMO, where?

[Mucka]

 

 

 

Thanks. So a little flatter than GFS but not terrible. 

Maybe ECM will bring some fireworks.

Edited January 29, 2015 by Mucka

[weather eater]

A long way to go for the mid-term solution to come into focus although I still don't see it being this morning's GEM solution, unfortunately. Much will depend on the modelling of the low and lobe of vortex north of Newfoundland early next week.

[bluearmy]

This mornings gem is consigned to the bin in the short term.

It was never a starter with no other op support at such a short timeframe.

I will get shot down for this but I haven't seen any polar lows on any models. That will generally be because they tend to form at short notice and are not picked up by the nwp at more than a day or so out. A low that forms over the polar field can clearly be called a polar low but it's not in the classical definition .

[Froze were the Days]

Where are all the comments on the GFS 12z - hardly none! must say it all then?!?

[ukpaul]

Where are all the comments on the GFS 12z - hardly none! must say it all then?!?

 

It says that it's snowing in many places and people are in the regional threads. Guildford just got hit by a heavy hail to heavy snow event that covered us over white in less than five minutes. That is what you mean when you refer to 'says it all' I presume?

 

The models themselves are as they were; cold spell extended, we await detail of potential further snow events in the coming days.

[Jason M]

This mornings gem is consigned to the bin in the short term.

It was never a starter with no other op support at such a short timeframe.

I will get shot down for this but I haven't seen any polar lows on any models. That will generally be because they tend to form at short notice and are not picked up by the nwp at more than a day or so out. A low that forms over the polar field can clearly be called a polar low but it's not in the classical definition .

 

 

Looking through the GEFS at 150 hours I wonder if that comment may come back to haunt you!

 

Edit: Not saying it 'will' happen, but its a very brave man indeed that disregards a big easterly at this point.

Edited January 29, 2015 by Jason M

[Snowman.]

Where are all the comments on the GFS 12z - hardly none! must say it all then?!?

Because everyone is the regionals discussing them.

 

Many have also chosen the option to just ignore them until next week at least as there is plenty of interest between there and now.

[weather eater]

This mornings gem is consigned to the bin in the short term.

It was never a starter with no other op support at such a short timeframe.

I will get shot down for this but I haven't seen any polar lows on any models. That will generally be because they tend to form at short notice and are not picked up by the nwp at more than a day or so out. A low that forms over the polar field can clearly be called a polar low but it's not in the classical definition .

Yes the GEMs cunning plan appears to have gone the way of the pear. As for the polar low there is some debate whether this was modelled or is just a feature that has appeared on satellite imagery, from what I gather the MO think it is a PL.

[SE Blizzards]

GEFS out to DAY 7 and quite a few decent Easterlies now starting to appear 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=162

Edited January 29, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Snowman.]

Anom at T168

 

[ukpaul]

Looking through the GEFS at 150 hours I wonder if that comment may come back to haunt you!

 

Edit: Not saying it 'will' happen, but its a very brave man indeed that disregards a big easterly at this point.

 

About 25% with a 'proper' easterly. same sort of percentage for a more northerly or north easterly direction. Others with a slack flow or, god forbid, one isolated member with a north westerly.

[Froze were the Days]

It says that it's snowing in many places and people are in the regional threads. Guildford just got hit by a heavy hail to heavy snow event that covered us over white in less than five minutes. That is what you mean when you refer to 'says it all' I presume?

 

The models themselves are as they were; cold spell extended, we await detail of potential further snow events in the coming days.

 

Sorry wasn't being sarcastic just seemed very strange with so few comments - and GFS 12z isn't that fantastic after the mid-term with Atlantic making slow inroads later next week, but doesn't surprise me generally the most progressive of the models.

UKMO looking better for somewhat of a continental feed say after 4/5th.