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Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards


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Wow - UKMO 144-!!!!!!!

 

Where did the EPO- ridge appear from !!!!!! Surprised no one has noticed-

 

UKMO !

attachicon.gifUKMO144JAN.gif

 

GFS

attachicon.gifGfs144Jan.jpg

 

The UKMO would certainly slow the eastward progression down due to the 2 wave pattern being progged.- the UKMO is the best run thus far-

 

S

What is the EPO and what implications does this have?

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Short answer   The short answer to your question is yes, the presence of low pressure (at higher altitudes, being coincident with very cold upper air), makes the air more unstable, as the gradient i

Welcome to "Celebrity Model Discussion". Let's go out to our reporter, who has managed to corner the miracle man himself, Jesus Christ, for his thoughts: Reporter : Thanks for joining us Jesus, first

If people will insist on analysing the 850mb temperatures every single run here's something to bear in mind when viewing the output for the upcoming period - -6c is a baseline figure to put snow/rain

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I assume those factors would work in our favor aslong the winds stay off shore because any winds coming in off the sea will sure affect whether snow will fall or not no matter what those figures say?

 

I still rather sacrifice any longer outbreak of PPN for a nice clean Northerly flow which will bring the proper cold air and ensures any PPN does fall should be of snow. 

 

 

Because the troughs are a link in the flow as a opposed to a closed system we will probably get minimal onshore flow from the east - so minimal mixing- although extreme NE coastline may be effected.

 

144 chart - very good but not quite as good as UKMO

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012712/ECH1-144.GIF?27-0

 

S

-EPO ridge is just a teleconnective pattern that has high pressure over Alaska into the pole. ( a bit like say the -NAO)

The more blocking into the pole the weaker the westerlies become..

Edited by Steve Murr
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A band of snow moving down the east on day 4-5 on the ECM with the very cold uppers penetrating south behind it

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012712/ECU0-120.GIF?27-0

 

-9c in the north chasing the -6c line that's exiting the south.

Dewpoints subzero everywhere-

516 DAM thickness touching Shetland

520 DAM in the NE

524 DAM in the South.

 

all parameters condusive to snow.

 

S

 

 

114-574.GIF?27-12

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Ecm 168 hours chart very interesting looks like another block in the atlantic setting up!! Whatever happens after that will happen but my word what a set of runs this evening! ! Some places could see plenty if snow over the next 7 days!!

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Note that the ECM op has decent precip moving northwest to southeast T54/78 but where the precip is decent Dp's show as positive. Looks marginal and i dare say that things could change in favour of snowfall but I note the latest fax carries thicknesses above 528 dam with the occlusion on Thurs/fri. After T78, the run is pretty dry to day 6 for England. some light stuff in EA and SW

exposed to the flow. Snow accs look relevant on hills from the chart I've seen (away from n England and Scotland)

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ECH1-168.GIF?27-0

 

 

This is very different to anything that has been modelled previously, caution advised.

 

Edit.

Okay it is a similar synoptic to 00z which was different itself but it is so much further West and nothing like GFS - more runs needed.  :D

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Should be a sliding reloading toppler then after T+168. I think I will stick with the longest toppler ever. Would like that style of -ve EPO on the UKMO over our side, now that would be fun. ECM not as strong EPO wise.

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ECM @ 192 looks good - although a sharper inflection point on that Icelandic low would have been better-

 

High pressure looking to set up camp I suspect at 216- will we get enough latitude to see the continental flow underneath....

 

S

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EC 192 shows a totally fractured Polar Jet on the Hemi view, not so much buckling but just cut to ribbons. Models will really struggle with such a set up And we are seeing significant movement of 1040 highs by 1000 miles on each run.

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Dont need the 528 dam for snow all the time do we!! As long as obviously all the other parameters are good!! I think some places are gona be in for a real surprise snowwise come friday and Saturday! ! For those 2 days its gona come down to nowcasting Cos although some of the models aint showing favourable parameters its one of those tricky situations! !

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A band of snow moving down the east on day 4-5 on the ECM with the very cold uppers penetrating south behind it

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012712/ECU0-120.GIF?27-0

 

-9c in the north chasing the -6c line that's exiting the south.

Dewpoints subzero everywhere-

516 DAM thickness touching Shetland

520 DAM in the NE

524 DAM in the South.

 

all parameters condusive to snow.

 

S

What does the WBFL say? It's already out to spoil Thursday.

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