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Paul

Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

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It's great to see the ECM adding a bit more amplification to the pattern at T168hrs. A bit more would be welcome! Its very close to the UKMO solution at T144hrs and I think now this shortwave is looking like the crucial development in terms of track.

 

Where it goes will determine the chances of extending the cold.

 

and what would be the preferred direction?

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Take note everyone the GFS was yet again much colder than the GEFS mean but the control follows this.

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150126/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png

 

Along with the UKMO/ECM every indication that this cold spell could be more prolonged and turn even colder into next week.

Yes TEITS cold cold cold

post-23289-0-76403200-1422298182_thumb.p

post-23289-0-74991400-1422298188_thumb.p

post-23289-0-00042900-1422298196_thumb.p

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....but wouldn't you show the later change of temps on the chart, rather than leave them up and say 'not too bad for the south' ?  lol

 

Not sure what you're talking about exactly but the Temperature drops in your location and mine and for another one third to one half of the UK population as the day (Wednesday) wears on.

 

Only trying to help, PM me if we are at crossed wires and if so I apologise.

 

Back to MOD please folks from here on in.  :good:

 

For the record, the ECM is also delivering cold 850s akin to the GFS during the D7 to D10 timeframe, something which I had previously mentioned in my regional post up thread.

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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and what would be the preferred direction?

What the ECM does is fine, the shortwave must head south/se. The direction of the shortwave tells us whether the upstream pattern is favourable to develop ridging ne.

 

If the shortwave heads east then this would also mean the chunk of low heights over Canada will come with it because it signifies less favourable movement of the PV.

 

We could still do with a bit more amplification upstream as this will carve a ridge further north, then as the PV starts to move into the Atlantic this could topple more favourably pulling in even colder air on its southern flank.

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Brilliant ecm this evening! ! At the moment it looks we are in for a proper wintry spell! ! Hopefully the extension of the cold weather continues tomorrow! !

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JMA flattens out by day 8. I'm sure Exeter have taken note!

Can't remember if it was right or wrong last time

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It's great to see the ECM adding a bit more amplification to the pattern at T168hrs. A bit more would be welcome! Its very close to the UKMO solution at T144hrs and I think now this shortwave is looking like the crucial development in terms of track.

 

Where it goes will determine the chances of extending the cold.

 

That was nice to see ECM model things very similar to UKMO so we could get an idea of what the UKMO would of gone on to produce and I'm pleased it fitted well with my analysis and although ECM is better than this mornings run UKMO still trumps it at 144 IMO and if that verified I think we would see the ridge reaching further into Greenland and the pattern a little further West.

The main theme though is that all three main models are keen on re-amplifying the pattern 144h and as you point out this  is a key time-frame where any major upgrades tot he longevity of the cold could develop.

The odds are still overwhelmingly on the ridge toppling if we go off output alone but if things keep trending as they have this evening we could see some real eye candy tomorrow evening. 

The big IF.

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Its times like this that it would be great if Ian could give us a professional point of view regarding latest runs!

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so the 00z's deamplified and the 12z's amplified. is that the envelope for next week or will we see the 00z's stretch it further??

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I think IF tweeted much earlier today METO by mid next week did expect a westerly element to the weather to return and no evidence of prolonged Northerly.

Using 4th Feb as that mid point will be interesting to see if any extension to cold past that. Certainly looks interesting between now and then.

JMA flattens out by day 8. I'm sure Exeter have taken note!

Can't remember if it was right or wrong last time

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That was nice to see ECM model things very similar to UKMO so we could get an idea of what the UKMO would of gone on to produce and I'm pleased it fitted well with my analysis and although ECM is better than this mornings run UKMO still trumps it at 144 IMO and if that verified I think we would see the ridge reaching further into Greenland and the pattern a little further West.

The main theme though is that all three main models are keen on re-amplifying the pattern 144h and as you point out this  is a key time-frame where any major upgrades tot he longevity of the cold could develop.

The odds are still overwhelmingly on the ridge toppling if we go off output alone but if things keep trending as they have this evening we could see some real eye candy tomorrow evening. 

The big IF.

It does look like they've picked up on this amplification signal however tonights JMA illustrates just how crucial that shortwave direction is.

 

I'd urge people to not get too excited yet because the shortwave track is still too far out. And really not to be too overly dramatic but everything rests on that and the pattern over the ne USA at the crucial timeframe.

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JMA flattens out by day 8. I'm sure Exeter have taken note!

Can't remember if it was right or wrong last time

So does that mean cold spell over by day8 ?

And wouldn't the jma be the odd model out surely?

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It's great to see the ECM adding a bit more amplification to the pattern at T168hrs. A bit more would be welcome! Its very close to the UKMO solution at T144hrs and I think now this shortwave is looking like the crucial development in terms of track.

 

Where it goes will determine the chances of extending the cold.

I still think there could be possible upgrades around 168-192, slightly better heights towards se greenland, and that low might cut the azores in half , leaving weak high presure between greenie and iceland, with the uk in a north easterly with a series of lows going underneath.

Edited by pages

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Dp's from Euro4 from Wed 6AM to Wed noon showing just how active the cold front will be.

 

15012806_2612.gif15012812_2612.gif

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JMA can't be the only data hinting at that scenario at day 8 per IF's tweets albeit many hours ago.

So does that mean cold spell over by day8 ?

And wouldn't the jma be the odd model out surely?

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Dp's from Euro4 from Wed 6AM to Wed noon showing just how active the cold front will be.

 

15012806_2612.gif15012812_2612.gif

 

Some great charts for cold lovers this evening, particularly after ECM 12Hz run.

 

Are there any sources of EURO4 which has higher resolution dewpoints.

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I still think there could be possible massive around 168-192, slighty better heights towards se greenland, and that low might cut the azores in half , leaving weak high presure between greenie and iceland, with the uk in a north easterly with a series of lows going underneath.

 

 

navgemnh-0-102.png?26-17

If the low exiting the eastern USA at T144hrs is more amplified and held further back then yes you'd probably get the ridge further north so your start point in terms of topple would be more favourable.

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JMA flattens out by day 8. I'm sure Exeter have taken note!

Can't remember if it was right or wrong last time

Lol :) I like it :D

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It does look like they've picked up on this amplification signal however tonights JMA illustrates just how crucial that shortwave direction is.

 

I'd urge people to not get too excited yet because the shortwave track is still too far out. And really not to be too overly dramatic but everything rests on that and the pattern over the ne USA at the crucial timeframe.

 

I think the shortwave can definitely aid or hinder the ridge behind but is it not the forcing of the upstream pattern that is more important?

If we compare ECM, UKMO and JMA at 144 the shortwave is in a very similar position but the forcing pattern upstream is different.

That shortwave will move S/SE unless it phases with lower heights to the east like this mornings ECM IMO and the more S rather than E the better for sure but the track isn't that different on JMA from 120 to the Euros but the forcing pattern upstream is and by 120h we can already see how much more progressive JMA is than the Euros.

 

JN120-21.GIF?26-12ECH1-120.GIFJN120-21.GIF?26-12

 

My thought is that the shortwave is forced further East on JMA because of the progressive nature of the upstream pattern and if upstream were more similar to the Euros we would see it further East without the phasing.

Hopefully JMA is much too fast and flat upstream and will correct tomorrow along with even better output from the other models  :gathering:

 

Edit.

 

Thanks for the laugh LHTM! :D

Edited by Mucka

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Lol :) I like it :D

I don't think BA was mocking the output as the MetO hold the JMA with high regard.

ZoomButt.gif
 
Edited by Hocus Pocus

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Some great charts for cold lovers this evening, particularly after ECM 12Hz run.

 

Are there any sources of EURO4 which has higher resolution dewpoints.

That's incredible for a 12 hour period!

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That's incredible for a 12 hour period!

 

It's actually 6 hours, 6AM to 12PM  :good:

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JMA is cannon fodder, don't see too much mention of it when its showing cold but the three big aren't, not sure why its even being brought up, it usually isn't.

Edited by Eugene

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