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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat


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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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Other than losing intensity my other concern is the track, its far more westerly than some un-named rampers would have you believe,it may increase its track to a SE trajectory but right now its not on that path

Fair comment Steve, I am of that view atm. :rofl:

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Didn't have much snow here in Central London today, but did have some sleet/hail which was better than nothing to see falling from the sky.

Happy for all those who recievved a good covering of snow today (At least some people got thee white stuff). Hope you all had fun with it. :)

Hoping this little "Polar Low" will deliever the goods for us in the SouthEast - God knows we deserve it, after last years sorry exscuse of a Winter!

 

I think some will wake up with a little surprise in their back gardens!

I'm waking up at 6am for work so praying I will see the snow has settled, or btter yet, still falling! :D:cold:

 

Heres to a good proper cold spell! :clap:

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Steve ( in sussex ) the convergence zone is EXACTLY where the NMM5 model put it for tonight which will extend down in the next 5 - 6 hours into SE England...

 

 

Also the GFS has produced its BEST set of ENS in 2 years.

 

some in the mix

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012918/gensnh-19-1-228.png

 

S

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I think it is just a case of waiting and seeing what happens. The models still disagree on the track and this is only at 6 or so hours out.

I can't be bothered to stay up, especially with a cold developing :p

FAX charts for Monday/Tuesday

attachicon.gif29-96h.gifattachicon.gif29-120h.gif

Right this is a little complicated

First off, there is a low which will bring snow to Canada on Saturday, this low is currently modelled to run over the Atlantic ridge and drop south west of the UK. Now we also see a wave develop on the western flank of the Euro trough, this looks set to run southwards through the UK Monday night into Tuesday. There is the potential for a spell of significant snow, highest risk appears to be the western side of the region at the moment. The east will continue to see snow showers coming in off the north sea.

Temperatures - both days probably 1-3C, maybe a 4C on the south coast or London.

 

Just a heads up, this cold northerly could very well just be the beginning.

ECM day 7 mean

EDM1-168.GIF?29-0

GFS day 7 mean

gens-21-1-168.png

A growing trend to sink low heights into central/southern Europe with an east to north east flow developing. If this did happen then we could see temperatures fall even further during the second half of next week. One to watch.

The Captain mentions the E word. Far off but are things about to get a whole lot more interesting winterwise ?? 

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Latest radar scan takes the Centre between Dublin Bay and Anglessy, so a slight SE Movement has occured in the last half an hour, but it is still a lot further west than I would have liked on that latitude for it to affect more of us in the SE, Still looking ok for Western Parts of our region, my estimate would take the centre departing the Uk Coast near the IOW Area unless we see much more of an easterly track the next few hours

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I think some will wake up with a little surprise in their back gardens!

I'm waking up at 6am for work so praying I will see the snow has settled, or btter yet, still falling! :D:cold:

 

Heres to a good proper cold spell! :clap:

Not more foxes poo??  :clap:

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Loving the Scandi Trough sinking down towards Italy on a lot of the models as well, with some increase in Heights to our North East this will open the door to the cold pool advecting in later next week, can almost touch an easterly, but as we know T72 And under to be sure of those synoptics!

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Latest radar scan takes the Centre between Dublin Bay and Anglessy, so a slight SE Movement has occured in the last half an hour, but it is still a lot further west than I would have liked on that latitude for it to affect more of us in the SE, Still looking ok for Western Parts of our region, my estimate would take the centre departing the Uk Coast near the IOW Area unless we see much more of an easterly track the next few hours

 

Paul, sneak peek of the 2300 UK analysis:

 

post-1052-0-49357200-1422574910_thumb.jp

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Interesting line of showers which are pushing south east from the north west. This line is actually east of the main low and seems to be the precipitation being picked up on the Euro for for the early hours here.

15013006_2918.gif

Main area of precipitation hits the South west (it gets as far east as Hampshire). Still interest for those those away from Norfolk and Suffolk (these locations will be dry and clear with a widespread air frost).

Still it will probably be different in a few hours.

Time for sleep I think. Goodnight.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Paul- I rewound the snow shower that hit here an hour ago to see where it came from ( track wise ) & it was south of Derby down the M1, the current strung out snow streamer on the eastern edge of the polar low is aligned to Essex ATM -

 

S

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The band to my NW is expanding all the time. This is the area that will push towards the SE overnight eventually arriving in London. I just hope it gets far enough E before sinking SE!

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