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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Just to show how 6 hours in model watching can change a wintry spell:

     

    06z: attachicon.gif96-779UK.gif 12z: attachicon.gif90-779UK.gif

    We all know that precipitation charts are fickle some way out - so why did you pick out those two in particular ido?

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    I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

    yeah she just text me the same-

    Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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    Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire

    If this is the extent of our winter then roll on spring.

    The only thing this winter has brought me, is an eternally dirty car, and a front door mat that forever needs cleaning.

    Really looking forward to the lighter nights and warmer days. I useful like the winter months, but these snowless winters are becoming monotonous.

    I'm getting like Victor Meldrew.

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    Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

    We all know that precipitation charts are fickle some way out - so why did you pick out those two in particular ido?

     

     

    Indeed.  Even inexperienced model watchers know that precipitation charts out more than 48 hours are unreliable and serve to prove very little.  I wonder why those two were chosen as well chio.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    We all know that precipitation charts are fickle some way out - so why did you pick out those two in particular ido?

     

    If you go back in the thread I suggested that there would be little in the way of snow from the cold front moving south Wed/Thurs and Daniel posted that chart. I was just sort of picking up on my earlier point. Nothing spurious I promise you. All could change tomorrow but just advising to be wary of snow charts like the 06z!

     

    I also mentioned the trend for the warming out of the uppers and the 12z continued with that theme:

     

    post-14819-0-72429400-1422204705_thumb.g

     

    IT is as we get nearer to T0 the better the models are at picking up these mesoscale features that can muddy the water.

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    I really want to be excited like some of the people in our region but, I just cannot as it all seems so marginal and snow settling with accumulations does not look likely.

     

    To repeat what someone else has just said, if this is how its going to be (yes that may change in FI) then roll on spring and bring me some tasty hail showers or a few storms.

     

    Good luck to all for seeing some snow. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Mickey reserve your judgement ECM 00z & UKMO 12z was much more cleaner & much better.

    Good potential Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning - GFS has in fact upgraded the 850s. :)

    It will be the first proper chance of snow down southern counties including SE since 2013.

    No marginality all we need is PPN and we're kicking...which appears high chance:)

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rart&HH=78&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Anyone fancy jumping on a flight to Boston with me tomorrow?!

    What's happening in Boston? Marginal snow event?

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Anyone fancy jumping on a flight to Boston with me tomorrow?!

    You would never get back :p

    I hear there is a chance of 30-50 inches for SE Mass...that is a lot lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Sort of, how many inches can you handle?

    Probably not the right person to be asking that question to! :cc_confused:  :shok:  :laugh:  I never knew parts of America were in for another snow bonanza. I've stopped taking any notice of the weather over there, because it makes me envious. :ninja:

    Edited by lassie23
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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

    All this talk of marginal snow amazes me, we are still 100 hours + away from the main event so why anyone is talking about snow at this range is a bit if a mystery to me. Wednesday and Thursday is not the main event, it's beyond that we need to look at.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    Essex Weather centre has just posted this on Twitter:

     

    "Temperatures on the mild side early next week, up to 10C before turning colder on Thursday. Snow likely to return early February."

     

    https://twitter.com/EssexWeather/status/559425516697305089

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    Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

    Anyone fancy jumping on a flight to Boston with me tomorrow?!

    My brother lives just west in a place called Worcester.They've been told to expect up to twenty four inches tomorrow and Tuesday.

    One tenth of that would be more than acceptable IMBY from this forthcoming cold spell!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey

    Gaahhhh!!!! I'm so confused??!! MOD is going crazy for this cold/snowy spell and yet my Met and BBC weather apps say 9c for Wed and 4-5c thereafter?! Is this a case of everyone going crazy cos most people are from m4 up? Do we have any chance down here?! If anyone could explain I'd be most grateful!!xx

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    Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl

    Gaahhhh!!!! I'm so confused??!! MOD is going crazy for this cold/snowy spell and yet my Met and BBC weather apps say 9c for Wed and 4-5c thereafter?! Is this a case of everyone going crazy cos most people are from m4 up? Do we have any chance down here?! If anyone could explain I'd be most grateful!!xx

    I am the same as you, totally confused. I think the problem is as you say, most posts are imby biased possibly

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

    The Only advice I would give at the moment would be to wait for Ian F to post , hopefully later tonight , and take what you need from that. I wouldn't pay to much attention to weather apps at this range.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Tomorrow

    post-17424-0-41185200-1422216423_thumb.p

    Moderate north westerly wind

    Early rain will clear to sunny spells.

    Temperatures

    nmmuk-0-24-0.png?25-18

    8-11C

     

    Tuesday

    post-17424-0-44923200-1422216424_thumb.p

    Light to moderate westerly wind

    Ground frost to start, it will be bright for most of the day before cloud increases later as fronts push over the high. Staying dry though.

    Temperatures

    nmmuk-0-51-0.png?25-18

    7-8C

     

    Wednesday

    post-17424-0-72526000-1422216425_thumb.p

    Strong west/north west winds

    Weather wise, a mess. A lot of fronts moving through. Rain or showers likely. Temperatures will plummet later in the afternoon as the cold air digs in.

    Temperatures could reach 10C again before falling away during the afternoon.

    Turning much colder from Wednesday night onwards. But more on that later.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

    Milder to start week, cooling after mid-week, colder by next weekend with snow risk increasing. Further details likely as we head through week. Don't expext bucket loads of snow and you'll probably enjoy it.

    Gaahhhh!!!! I'm so confused??!! MOD is going crazy for this cold/snowy spell and yet my Met and BBC weather apps say 9c for Wed and 4-5c thereafter?! Is this a case of everyone going crazy cos most people are from m4 up? Do we have any chance down here?! If anyone could explain I'd be most grateful!!xx

    Edited by Hammer
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    If this cold spell doesn't deliver, then I will be awaiting the convective season to kick off. 

    Over the last 2 years, its clear to see there has been much more night storm activity and decent plumes. Lets hope it can carry on!

     

    Heres a good example :D

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Gaahhhh!!!! I'm so confused??!! MOD is going crazy for this cold/snowy spell and yet my Met and BBC weather apps say 9c for Wed and 4-5c thereafter?! Is this a case of everyone going crazy cos most people are from m4 up? Do we have any chance down here?! If anyone could explain I'd be most grateful!!xx

    It's still a bit early to say -yes it will be colder but we are at the end of the line for a northerly so not as raw as up north. Those temps are about right based on the GFS possibly slightly colder if using the UKMO and ECM.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

    Chino why is it in Easterly the end of line (West) can often be colder than places in East. Yet in Northernly end of line (South) don't fare as well. North Sea?

    It's still a bit early to say -yes it will be colder but we are at the end of the line for a northerly so not as raw as up north. Those temps are about right based on the GFS possibly slightly colder if using the UKMO and ECM.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey

    Thanx everyone, appreciated!! So for now the potential is there but I shall sit tight and wait and watch as the week goes on! Like I did with last week....although this spell does seem to have a lot more going for it :)

    Fingers crossed for everyone :) xx

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