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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat


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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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Always be wary of SE Moving Systems in a Polar Flow, expect the unexpected as sometimes things go better than planned.

 

This little system on the 4th March 1970 was supposed to deliver a dusting to London and the SE, What actually happened was 30cm of Snow!

 

Link Below

 

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/63325-the-march-1970-snowstorm/

 

That's what I like to see........ a bit of optimism  :acute:

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Whats your gut feeling for us in Essex (South) Tom?

I'm thinking perhaps a light covering between 3-5am?

 

Agree on the timing, but feel the low could drift further South taking any snowfall risk to Kent and Sussex. As Paul has just said in regards to intensity, this could be another disappointment or a major event locally. Huge model variation remains in the T+9 to T+15 timeframe and will have to keep an eye on surface observations and radar overnight.

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Netweather Pro's v METO who will win?

NW pro's going for it to slide out through Kent and the METO pro's going for a Sussex exit.

Only about 50-70 miles in it, but it will make a huge difference!

Personally Im going with the NW mob. Heaviest of any snow to the North of our region. Cambs/Beds/Herts/Suffolk/Essex/Kent

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As Paul alluded too, these features can be very interesting.

 

I think some lucky spot is going see >15cms early tomorrow.

Hi sorry to ask not long been in from work so I have been catching up on the thread , do we have any idea as to where the sweet spot might be? And also can you explain to me what a polar low is please ? Sorry I'm not clued up on these things lol .Thanks in advance
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Unusual to see high res models so at odds at such short tame with the forecasts, which basically leave east anglia out of any shower activity overnight tonight. My bet is with the people not the computers so a bit disappointed but hoping to be proved wrong. Let's see what happens down the line...

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Always be wary of SE Moving Systems in a Polar Flow, expect the unexpected as sometimes things go better than planned.

 

This little system on the 4th March 1970 was supposed to deliver a dusting to London and the SE, What actually happened was 30cm of Snow!

 

Link Below

 

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/63325-the-march-1970-snowstorm/

Very interesting. Noticed it was 1c the following day according to the weather forecast at the bottom of the page. And it was March, not January, so the air was a lot colder, and later in the year.

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Agree on the timing, but feel the low could drift further South taking any snowfall risk to Kent and Sussex. As Paul has just said in regards to intensity, this could be another disappointment or a major event locally. Huge model variation remains in the T+9 to T+15 timeframe and will have to keep an eye on surface observations and radar overnight.

 

Wouldnt be disappointing for kent and sussex then given they are in the SE too

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I see a lot of METO and BBC bashing in the previous pages!

 

It's very easy to be a keyboard warrior and dislike any information given to you free of charge. Don't forget, the METO do this for YOU for FREE, and if you can do better on your PC or iphone than a supercomputer then you might have a reason to complain!

 

Personally for me the weather will do what it will do, no point in getting all frustrated over a forecast made on such a dynamic and rapidly evolving subject.

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Still looking fairly good on the radar, the showers in the Midlands started to fade, but now look to be holding together a bit more, while the polar low looks to be heading in towards the Irish Sea. Very much a case on nowcasting and radar watching...

 

(EDIT: You can see the line of showers still building there in the latest run, while the polar low seems to be building in the Irish Sea!
 Looking rather good as it stands)

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post-2587-0-86972200-1422562404_thumb.pn

Edited by Sno' problem
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