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RE: Tonight's potential, it might be worth me re-posting this:

 

 

This bears many similar hallmarks to that event (and I'm not talking exact track here), so I would not take any forecast track just yet as any sort of gospel finalised track.

 

SK

 

I remember a similar scenario that was forecasted to move down the spine of the country but miss the South-East, remember the forecast on BBC South-East today forecasting this.

 

Overnight winds backed more NW and pushed it across the SE. The forecast the next day was Kaddy-Lee Preston apologising for getting the forecast so wrong. Not a clue what year it was though.

 

Back edge sleet on the band as it pushed through here, the kind that has little bits of ice embedded in the raindrops. Heaviest stuff passed just to my North East, could see it falling heavily over the hills in the distance

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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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Had a heavy rain shower, with some sleetiness mixed in on the back edge and the temperature has dropped from 7.4ºc at 14:12 to 4.3ºc now... But the dew point has risen from 2.3ºc to 2.6ºc! 

Going in the right direction though!!

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It's as expected people, some passing showers giving a dusting I places. Ivan only reiterate that unfortunately some members like to over hype things.

Enjoy the cold wintry conditions.

I don't honestly think members are over hyping it Steve.......The entire region is under a met office warning for snow and ice with accs in some places......and interestingly enough, some of the members who have been hinting at some snowfall, indeed the potential for something a bit more substantial,  are amungst the most learned on this forum

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I remember a similar scenario that was forecasted to move down the spine of the country but miss the South-East, remember the forecast on BBC South-East today forecasting this.

 

Overnight winds backed more NW and pushed it across the SE. The forecast the next day was Kaddy-Lee Preston apologising for getting the forecast so wrong. Not a clue what year it was though.

 

Back edge sleet on the band as it pushed through here, the kind that has little bits of ice embedded in the raindrops. Heaviest stuff passed just to my North East, could see it falling heavily over the hills in the distance

 

Absolutely, many examples I'm sure down the years of such developments proving a little tricky to forecast. The natural progression of such a system is South with exponentially increasing Easterly curve the further South it heads. However, how rapidly this Easterly progression occurs is near impossible to call because it is such a dynamic system.

 

Interesting graphic from WSI:

 

B8h1Yb0IIAA1Rlt.pngB8h1Xm5IUAEWT2G.png

 

That brings the track a lot further North than any recent high-res modelling I have seen, just highlighting the range of outcomes modeled presently

 

SK

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