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got to agree with above comments,its worse than the mod thread at times,stop bickering and digging at each other,the weather will do what it wants,enjoy it,and above anything else CHILL OUT

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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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It's gonna snow in the SE later today.. The reason why is because I'm gonna do some Reverse psychology.

It's a clear sunny morning and whenever it's like this and the weather forecast say "chance of a shower but your be unlucky to get one" then what I do is put my washing out on the line and I go out for the day. Guarantee once I'm far away from my house it starts to rain and hard.. So that's the plan... What can go wrong?! O yer, it could rain and not snow knowing my luck. â„⛄

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Have to admit it felt quite pleasant out of the wind while on my way to work this morning. Did notice some patches of frost in sheltered areas though. 

Hopefully some snow to come for us southerners.

From a IMBY perspective DPs look favourable after 15z. Just gotta get some PPN down here. 

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Euro 4 out

This afternoon/evening

15012918_2906.gif

plenty of showers over the region. snow looks possible anywhere

 

Overnight

15013006_2906.gif

That wave appears to still hit southern counties (Hampshire through to Kent)

Corresponding surface pressure chart

15013003_2906.gif

 

Friday looks drier, wintry showers still look like trying to spread eastwards from the west, also some rain showers could affect north norfolk later as the wind backs northerly. These should begin to turn wintry as we move into the weekend.

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Must admit these Regionals usually dont need moderating like the Model Discussion but you never know! Haha

 

Am seeing lots of people saying it was a damp squib etc, unless we have been transported to Saturday in a magical time machine I fail to see how people are moaning about this forecast or that BBC Transmission etc, just wait and see what happens over the next 36 hours.

 

GFS = Most of SE

 

ECM = Further West

 

UKMO = Further West

 

And it seems pretty clear from the warnings that the MO Are expecting highest totals in the Western Parts of our region from the updated warning or over Higher Ground as you would expect.

 

Like Teits says early to middle next week is the only thing grabbing my attention atm, a much better chance for our region than what looks like the early naughties winters of 1cm and Melt by 11am scenario over the next few days. If you get lucky then brilliant but the main show looks likely to be when the wind actually shifts to the east of north as it always is for our little part of the world

 

Regards

 

Paul S

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So the Euro4 suggests shower activity will become much more widespread this afternoon. I actually wouldn't rule out the chance of hail, thunder as these appear to be heavy.

 

Tonight the area of precip moving SE appears to miss E Anglia but could hit the SE i.e London/Kent/Sussex.

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I have to despair at the moaning from some.

 

We have a chance of some snow today/tonight. Briefly less cold tomorrow before becoming colder again with a risk of more snow. Thereafter hints we may even see a colder E,ly.

You can understand it though TEITS. I blame it on too much information. Some which is extremely positive and then some which is very negative. So people on the forum don't know whether they are coming or going sometimes....but I think on the whole it is positive news we are seeing now.At least it's interesting weather whatever the outcome

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I may or may not see any snow later on but today's MO Yellow Warning is a classic example of why looking 4/5 days ahead and trying to work out whether it will snow in your back garden is a largely futile exercise.

 

Been said I know many times but worth repeating, especially when looking ahead to what might  be a better event next week.

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You can understand it though TEITS. I blame it on too much information. Some which is extremely positive and then some which is very negative. So people on the forum don't know whether they are coming or going sometimes....but I think on the whole it is positive news we are seeing now.At least it's interesting weather whatever the outcome

The problem stems from some having too high expectations. For example I tried to urge caution in the model thread but was largely ignored. The period we are currently in was never going to bring widespread heavy snowfalls because this region never does well from a NW,ly. However its the period early next week that especially interests me as Paul S also said.

 

I will finally add that knowlege of your local weather is sometimes more reliable than the actual model output. For example I know in my location the difference in disruption of snow showers from a N/NNE/NE/ENE/E,ly. I bet Steve M and Paul S will say the same in their locations.

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The problem stems from some having too high expectations. For example I tried to urge caution in the model thread but was largely ignored. The period we are currently in was never going to bring widespread heavy snowfalls because this region never does well from a NW,ly. However its the period early next week that especially interests me as Paul S also said.

 

I will finally add that knowlege of your local weather is sometimes more reliable than the actual model output. For example I know in my location the difference in disruption of snow showers from a N/NNE/NE/ENE/E,ly. I bet Steve M and Paul S will say the same in their locations.

Yes I know that tonight there is a good chance that precip will be wintry but that this will be less so by tomorrow morning. So that there is a chance in some areas in the region will see some snow and that this may even stick after dark, but don't expect to be able to build a snowman out of it in the morning!

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The problem stems from some having too high expectations. For example I tried to urge caution in the model thread but was largely ignored. The period we are currently in was never going to bring widespread heavy snowfalls because this region never does well from a NW,ly. However its the period early next week that especially interests me as Paul S also said.

 

I will finally add that knowlege of your local weather is sometimes more reliable than the actual model output. For example I know in my location the difference in disruption of snow showers from a N/NNE/NE/ENE/E,ly. I bet Steve M and Paul S will say the same in their locations.

 

Carinthians latest post is quite telling in the Model Thread re your first paragraph, some of the mets in Europe going with a Cold Pool setting up over Europe and if the Scandi Trough sinks towards Italy this could then affect the eastern half of the country.

 

And defo about the wind direction, Northerly affects Kent, NNE Affects Kent and Coastal Suffolk, NE Brings Essex and London into the equations, ENE Is fun times for most of the South East if the gradients are strong enough with streamers, Easterlies tend to be hit and miss depending on the synoptic sey-up re dry easterlies or convective. You also know the perfect conditions for the Wash to dish out the goodies!

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Makes it very hard reading this thread with some of the moaning. If it's that important going by the messages of utter despair on here then perhaps a drive up north to get your snow fix might be in order. Anyway possibly some snow for this area later today. Some very dark clouds appearing overhead in March, Cambs at the moment.

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Ensembles are locking in the cold now for at least a week so it's anyones guess where will see snow at this juncture. Normally a surprise will pop up 24hrs beforehand, as long as we aren't plumb under a ridge.

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Euro 4 out

This afternoon/evening

15012918_2906.gif

plenty of showers over the region. snow looks possible anywhere

 

Overnight

15013006_2906.gif

That wave appears to still hit southern counties (Hampshire through to Kent)

 

Friday looks drier, wintry showers still look like trying to spread eastwards from the west, also some rain showers could affect north norfolk later as the wind backs northerly. These should begin to turn wintry as we move into the weekend.

Liking those Captain, Cloud has increased the last here, wind still bitter, Am out in the open from 4pm til 7ish so I will be freezing my icicles off hoping for flakes. The Euro4 should be quite accurate at that range ?? Almost nowcasting.

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Be thankful you don't live in Bedford, my freezer is seeing more action than the weather outside.

 

Those people moaning about people moaning are becoming just as bad as those who are moaning, TBH. It's a discussion thread so surely we aren't all going to agree?

just a thought, don't shoot me. 

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