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To me it's not cold enough for lying snow - that's why there's no warnings out because even if it snows, as soon as it stops at +4c (when temperature rises in the morning) it will melt away pretty quickly.

Might be a dusting tonight for the northern counties in the region but nothing of note, IMO.

Edited by Weathizard
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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

Posted Images

How come?

 

You would think going by the text forecast on meto and the apps that show snow by rush hour ....traffic with snow falling would warrant a warning?

Why? Because showers are dying out before they reach the region any that do make it this far do not amount to much

Unfortunately some in here like to hype things up a bit rather than being sensible about it

I hope things change though

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To me it's not cold enough for lying snow - that's why there's no warnings out because even if it snows, as soon as it stops at +4c (when temperature rises in the morning) it will melt away pretty quickly.

Might be a dusting tonight for the northern counties in the region but nothing of note, IMO.

When are you execting snow then for the temp to still be +4*c?

 

Unless I'm mistaken we are talking about very late afternoon/early evening

Why? Because showers are dying out before they reach the region any that do make it this far do not amount to much

Unfortunately some in here like to hype things up a bit rather than being sensible about it

I hope things change though

Do you not look at any forecasts and take them as a guide? We are not due precipitation of any kind till this afternoon anyway for most the region, so no point looking at the radar at present and getting all worried about them dying out.

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Not a single shower has reached the London area of yet we shall see what happens later

I've typed Harrow into meto office just to see what you was forecast, as you seem worried about lack of showers as does the usual mr doom&gloom above...

 

...why you worried at this stage?

w1bl3c.jpg

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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There will not be any significant snow in this region tonight. Simple as that, maybe a dusting over the northern counties of the region, that's it.

The MetO will not issue warning about snow if it's not disruptive snowfall, which it simply will not be and there is no evidence suggesting anything significant

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Temperature has shot up to 4.3°C, looking likely that this afternoons PPN will turn from rain, to sleet and then finally into snow as the sun goes down - more than likely see a good 1-2 hours of snow from 4pm onwards.

 

Tomorrow morning's rush hour looks interesting too.

Edited by Yellow Army
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Stav on BBC weather just now. He sounded pretty adamant that it will just be rain or  possibly sleet in the south east today and this evening. So not looking good one little bit. Rather it just stayed sunny tbh


5c as well, so hardly conducive of snow anyway

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I've typed Harrow into meto office just to see what you was forecast, as you seem worried about lack of showers as does the usual mr doom&gloom above...

 

...why you worried at this stage?

w1bl3c.jpg

It's not doom and gloom, it's called being sensible, rational, factual, prudent etc

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The cold spell we are in now is nothing like the last one

Really don't know why some posters are throwing in the towel already.

It was never going to be great for us until at least the weekend.

Tonight already looks better than forecast two days ago.

We only need slight upgrades from the weekend onwards.

The 6z is already looking better for our region as chiono has pointed out.

(Know it's the 6z though :()

Patience is key here,

Some in our region will get surprises this set up is so unstable.

I for one love the fact no one, not even the meto can predict what lies ahead.

Edited by snowbob
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Indeed a yellow warning out with a couple of centimetres of snow possible anywhere later this afternoon and possibly over southern England during the night as a more organised area of rain, sleet and snow moves through.

 

 

 

Showers during Thursday afternoon and evening are expected to fall increasingly as sleet, snow and hail. This may settle in places, especially from late afternoon and more especially on high ground. In addition, a more persistent spell of rain, sleet and and snow may affect the west and south of the yellow area during the early hours of Friday morning. Most areas are unlikely to see large amounts of snow but icy stretches are likely to form on untreated surfaces.

The public should be aware of the risk of some travel disruption and difficult driving conditions.

 

 

The unstable westerly airflow will veer northwesterly during Thursday bringing cold air further south across the UK. Showers will therefore become wintry to lower levels. 1 to 2 cm may settle almost anywhere, especially from late afternoon and into Thursday evening.

During the early hours of Friday morning a more persistent spell of rain, sleet and snow may affect parts of Wales, the Midlands and southern England. Again, 1 to 2 cm of snow is possible at low levels whilst locally up to 5 cm could settle on high ground above about 150 m. However, this is rather uncertain and many places will see little, if any, lying snow, and ice is more likely to be a hazard.
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Some people in here would have thought we are not going to see a single flake.

 

GFS LOVES to over do PPN.. BUT... Shows we are now within the time frame for some snow.. 

 

prectypeuktopo.png

 

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prectypeuktopo.png

 

prectypeuktopo.png

 

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Edited by Paul
Removed un-needed snippyness (is that a new word?)
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Some people in here would have thought we are not going to see a single flake.

 

GFS LOVES to over do PPN.. BUT... Shows we are now within the time frame for some snow.. 

 

prectypeuktopo.png

 

prectypeuktopo.png

 

prectypeuktopo.png

 

prectypeuktopo.png

 

prectypeuktopo.png

First charts we have seen that actually show decent totals in our region in the reliable timeframe. GFS can be unreliable but that's better than nothing. 

 

Thanks for posting! 

Edited by Paul
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Temp is currently 5.3 degrees here, which is several degrees higher than forecast(believe it was 3 degrees). Dew point is currently 1.6 degrees. So unless we get a sudden drop in both, I would suggest that anything falling out of the sky is likely to be A sleet/rain mix. The showers seem to be dying out before they reach inland as well.....Looks like we will have to be patient in this area, for these expected showers in the afternoon. Hopefully the temp/dew point would have dropped by then!

Edited by dain_bramaged
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