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Tonight is tricky because as you see on the links below the Euro4 & GFS disagree.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs272.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/29/basis00/ukuk/pslv/15013003_2900.gif

 

As you can see the GFS tracks this system further E.

 

At the moment I would say mainly W parts of this region are at risk but this could change.

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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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Tonight is tricky because as you see on the links below the Euro4 & GFS disagree.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs272.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/29/basis00/ukuk/pslv/15013003_2900.gif

 

As you can see the GFS tracks this system further E.

 

At the moment I would say mainly W parts of this region are at risk but this could change.

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

 

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

 

This idea too... 

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@Essexweather: Interesting midnight run of the high-res @metoffice model. Many parts of the region could awake to snow on Friday morning.

@KnowMeSee Enough to settle and cause a few issues, not major at this stage. Next Tuesday could be a more significant event.

Perhaps something more widespread in terms of snowfall overnight into Friday.

He is a professional metrologist I believe although has no links to MO, he has access to MOGREPS.

Not sure who looks after the Twitter feed but Tom posts on here occasionally, essex weather centre have some sort of met office affiliation so they have access to MOGREPS as well as UKV - I assume it is UKV he is referring to.

As TEITS says above a lot of uncertainty regarding the track of tonight's system - I recall once seeing a similar such system forecast to track down in to the Midlands and across to the SE a few years ago now, forecast models and met office forecasts all day had it tracking that way. We sat and watched on the radar as....it remained across the West and gave parts of Gloucestershire etc a rush hour dumping.

Even at this short range there are no certainties it will track our way - the last couple of 'events' over the past month or so should stand testament to that.

Hopefully we will know more by this evening and we can all wake up to a nice covering in the morning :)

SK

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Hmmm

 

Here is tonight's potential "event" for snow.. 

 

 post-12648-0-08206000-1422522307_thumb.j

 

3 Different tracks showing with the EURO4 not even agreeing it makes it.. ALL give diffrent areas of PPN..

 

Thing is... Im looking at this.. 

 

post-12648-0-43103700-1422522366_thumb.j

 

Notice the spital of winds.. Indicating where this model wants to put the feature.. Notice all the convergence zone I feel personally this is the best way to indicate where it wants to go.. 

 

post-12648-0-83032300-1422522408_thumb.j

 

Slight agreement but GFS here wants it more East.. 

 

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Meto have rain at 14:00hrs turning to snow at 17:00hrs.... fingers crossed.

 

Indded early afternoon looks semi marginal but after that sun begins to go down then we are game.. We just need to watch where this little system goes.

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Indded early afternoon looks semi marginal but after that sun begins to go down then we are game.. We just need to watch where this little system goes.

 

Do you think that by 11.45am Meto will issue us a yellow warning :sorry:

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How come?

 

You would think going by the text forecast on meto and the apps that by rush hour traffic with snow falling would warrant a warning?

to be honest I hope they do and I'm wrong

But equally I find the best snowfalls are those that are not warned of.

To be fair at this moment I would be ecstatic with a dusting

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well suns out, wispy clouds, the sky is blue, temp 1, dp 0, so its a sit and wait game, so from this afternoon its game on, wait and see what falls from the sky, :)  

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LOL

Bbc rain , sleet possible snow shower s in heavier burst

It will be rain if it gets here - dew points already too high for snow at 9.45am!

Manchester Airport closed due to snow, all happening up North. We need the showers to be brave and venture into our area.

Sadly conditions don't favour snow in our region

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It will be rain if it gets here - dew points already too high for snow at 9.45am!

Sadly conditions don't favour snow in our region

 

We need the precipitation to get here then after that conditions will be ok, when light falls the temps will drop repidly, only 3*c now in the sun and the DP is 1*c I expect these to drop by -2 come 5pm. giving a temp of 1*c and a DP of -1*c

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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GFS coming out, take the precipitation chart with a pinch of salt.

21-574UK.GIF?29-6

GFS wanting the home counties, London, Kent, Essex and parts of Cambridgeshire to get some snow overnight

21-515UK.GIF?29-6

Corresponding pressure chart. 

Still snow showers forecast this afternoon.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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GFS coming out, take the precipitation chart with a pinch of salt.

21-574UK.GIF?29-6

GFS wanting the home counties, London, Essex and parts of Cambridgeshire to get some snow overnight

21-515UK.GIF?29-6

Corresponding pressure chart. 

Still snow showers forecast this afternoon.

Would I be right in thinking it also looks good for Kent..??

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On my drive to work this morning I could swear snow was falling on my windscreen of my van, enough to give a dusting ! It then became apparent that it was in fact polystyrene balls blowing of a skip lorry in front of me :=( but for a fraction of a second I'd had my snow fix :=)

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