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Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
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    I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

    yeah she just text me the same-

    Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    Well you're brave for making that call because the cold spell is yet to start and is forecast to last for much of next week too, so you're using model output to predict snow at 168 hours+... You may of course be right and certainly in a nw/northerly setup the SE is never going to be in prime position, but the better bet would be to wait and see what comes up.

    Well anyone can do that. I am simply going by the charts!

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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    Captain - yet again though that chart does NOT show snow for the SE. It shows snowfall in the favoured areas hundreds of miles away.

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

    Captain - yet again though that chart does NOT show snow for the SE. It shows snowfall in the favoured areas hundreds of miles away.

    But that's only upto 48 hours !! Any precipitation will be mainly heading SE if it doesn't weaken.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Captain - yet again though that chart does NOT show snow for the SE. It shows snowfall in the favoured areas hundreds of miles away.

    I stated in my post that the Euro 4 shows showers moving west to east Wednesday night, you can follow the previous frames as the showers push into the west during the afternoon and reach the Midlands by midnight. Hopefully when the 06z update comes out then there will be snow showers over the region on the last frames (T48h). By midnight the showers have simply not made it to our region yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON

    It will be a case of radar watching the showers develope and move towards us some might make some might not a bit like trying to penetrate an egg

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Fwiw - Jo F is preparing a watch at the moment, and has asked us to create a snow risk map for it, she's requested we include the SE within that, with a 30% risk of >1cm snowfall in the region between Weds and Fri. So not exactly super high (as expected) but certainly not the flat out zero chance as painted by some!

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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    But that's only upto 48 hours !! Any precipitation will be mainly heading SE if it doesn't weaken.

    Again, that is a big IF. No-one is denying it will be cold. That is nailed on. What I am saying is that it will be largely dry in the SE based on what the current charts are saying. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dartford, Kent
  • Location: Dartford, Kent

    The shower distribution has still not been firmed up. And troughs can develop within six hours as has previously been mentioned. In a volatile situation like this anyone could get snow over the next seven days or so. And during the night, a chance of some settling snow. Not so much during the day however. At least the weather will be different and there will be more anticipation than there has been for the last couple of months of benign weather

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Just a bit of expectations management for those of us in the SE.

     

    The upcoming cold spell will feel very cold especially in the wind - however temperatures will rise to 5C by day and there will be a frost on most nights.  There is likely to be little precipitation and any precipitation that falls is only likely to be a wintry mix unless you have significant elevation.  This is not likely to be a vintage cold spell.  Time will tell as ever....

    Edited by mulzy
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    Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex

    Again, that is a big IF. No-one is denying it will be cold. That is nailed on. What I am saying is that it will be largely dry in the SE based on what the current charts are saying. 

     

    You could well be right, but if you're going by charts then the link given on the previous page shows plenty of showery activity of snow, based on GFS. So which charts are you basing that on? If it's just the Euro 4 then it hasn't come into range yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    Just a bit of expectations management for those of us in the SE.

     

    The upcoming cold spell will feel very cold especially in the wind - however temperatures will rise to 5C by day and there will be a frost on most nights.  There is likely to be little precipitation and any precipitation that falls is only likely to be a wintry mix unless you have significant elevation.  This is not likely to be a vintage cold spell.  Time will tell as ever....

    For some days your assesment is accurate. However at times snowfall won't be marginal i.e Wednesday night/Thurs and it is during this period when snow showers may reach this area on a W/WNW,ly. A greater risk of this for E Anglia compared to the SE though. Less cold Fri/Sat when your assesment is more accurate but then uncertainity with regards to the much colder N,ly thereafter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire

    When's the next cold spell ?

    Apparently we are not getting any snow this time

     

     

    Again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent

    Just a bit of expectations management for those of us in the SE.

     

    The upcoming cold spell will feel very cold especially in the wind - however temperatures will rise to 5C by day and there will be a frost on most nights.  There is likely to be little precipitation and any precipitation that falls is only likely to be a wintry mix unless you have significant elevation.  This is not likely to be a vintage cold spell.  Time will tell as ever....

     

     

    Just to add to that ...I work for the Highways Agency and we've just been requested to switch on the under surface carriageway heating on the M4 :nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON

    Just to add to that ...I work for the Highways Agency and we've just been requested to switch on the under surface carriageway heating on the M4 :nonono:

    lol
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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

    BBc weather was just quite stern on a disruption warning from snow, showed a large blob of white over Medway for Thursday...

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    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 57m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 57m ASL

    Well if it's any consolation the East Coast doesn't seem to have had the Red Alert level of snow that was forecast either.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    Just to add to that ...I work for the Highways Agency and we've just been requested to switch on the under surface carriageway heating on the M4 :nonono:

    You will only need it on the eastbound carriageway.

     

    The border between snow and rain always runs down the middle of the motorway. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

    I wouldn't be too worried, the BBC have even switched to the snow graphic leading into and out of the weather.. They seem to sense a big pasting

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    A bit of a downgrade over the pond only 1-2ins of snow per hour not the 3-4 ins. Boy would I be happy for 1-2 ins of snow per hour.

    scrap that I would even take 1-2cms per hour.

    Or 1 to 2cm per winter :laugh: The Boston cam was just an orange haze lol. Sunny and spring like outside. So spring like, that things have started growing in my garden and my cat is sun bathing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Serious? People knocking the up and coming cold spell already.. 

     

    One word... 

     

    Sad.

     

    Get a grip.. Just like this cold spell is going to do on the UK.. Snow or no snow.. The nights will be bitter and YES some will see some snow from showers.. just because a model does not show it in your backyard does not mean it won't snow.. and we are still 48 hours away from the cold REALLY gripping in after tomorrow.

     

     

    EDIT:

     

    Surprise surprise..

     

    Snow showers pushing through..

     

    15012900_2706.gif

     

     

    15012903_2706.gif

     

    15012906_2706.gif

    Edited by Surrey
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