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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat


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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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Didnt get much today after our small amount of snowfall early this morning. However it did give me a chance to do this, first time I've been able to do this for my little boy who turned 4 today :)post-9762-0-30395300-1422743867_thumb.jp

Edited by masked_firefly
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according to bbc app Croydon is due snow showers around 3am & hastings is due snow showers around 5am ? I guess its just a case of wait & see ? im actually getting annoyed with myself keep looking at the forecasts for a bit of snow lol ,its beyond ridiculous  :nonono:

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this was the forecast, as is the video on this link.... i guess others can judge

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Looks on par with the other data (Euro 4), very similar to the chart I pasted an hour ago.

@Greenland1080 - Long way from a beasterly when looking at the pressure pattern. High pressure slap bang over the UK.

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Day 5 from GFS could be a ideal environment for a Thames Streamer ENE wind, with -8C 850s.

post-19153-0-29473400-1422744229_thumb.jpost-19153-0-36725500-1422744245_thumb.jpost-19153-0-05125200-1422744259_thumb.j

NMM 2km 18z is much more on the ball, IMO.

post-19153-0-21383400-1422744747_thumb.j

Edited by Daniel*
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When it comes to the outlook for the next 12 hrs im not a massive fan of using the models and prefer the Sat/Radar. However it is worth pointing out that the latest GFS 18Z run doesn't show much in the way of snow with the main band of precip hitting Norfolk, Suffolk. Also it is suggesting this could be marginal in these regions.

 

So please take this on board and try not to expect too much.

 

GFS as a whole has not been great with their snow forecasts of late, so I would not pay too much attention to the GFS 18Z ppn output

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I'd usually be with you on the hunt for a flake or two but here in Aviemore I'm in snow heaven. Pretty much snowing all day at varying levels of intensity, and the locals must be amused by my unhinged excitement. First visit to a very snowy place and it's been quite overwhelming. Wishing you all the luck tonight, will be back to grey sleety

London on Monday

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GFS as a whole has not been great with their snow forecasts of late, so I would not pay too much attention to the GFS 18Z ppn output

Not sure I agree. The "Polar low" was modelled very accurately the other day and the associated snowfall was also spot on.

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It is but don't let young Daniel hear u say that.... I kid Daniel!!

It's actually ok overnight for Essex....

The rest of us not so much

I will not even bother. :wink: ... But yes it is looking good for Essex. It is evident the precip is not hugging the East Coast look at the radar.

Edited by Daniel*
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I will not even bother. :wink: ... But yes it is looking good for Essex. It is evident the precip is not hugging the East Coast look at the radar.

No you are right it isn't... But it's as it moves down the country it shall slide East

I hope it doesn't mind you

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No you are right it isn't... But it's as it moves down the country it shall slide East

I hope it doesn't mind you

I do not see it myself we'll have to see. It'll go SE - not East.

post-19153-0-77205800-1422745217_thumb.j

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Thinon.

That low will pass down North Sea, rest assured it won't just "die out". Will it give PPN to all, No. Will it die over Scotland. No. Will it all be snow. Not sure, check in about 8 hours. Is steveinsussex correct that PPN misses East totally? Could be right, some models do keep minimal PPN coming across region. METO however suggests Stevenage western extent around 9am ish.

Can't see where any significant ppn is coming from for tonight. The area of ppn in Eastern Scotland isn't even crossing the border into England let alone making it all the way down south.

Edited by Hammer
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No you are right it isn't... But it's as it moves down the country it shall slide East

I hope it doesn't mind you

I can see why they will slide East, when you look at the showers that are over the Midlands at the moment are moving more to the east that South, but are the showers up north at the moment heading more west than forecast? Meaning by the time they start moving to the east they will hit a lot more areas?

Just a thought

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Thinon.

That low will pass down North Sea, rest assured it won't just "die out". Will it give PPN to all, No. Will it die over Scotland. No. Will it all be snow. Not sure, check in about 8 hours.

100% agree with you it is all speculation, we will have to see what happens. This is a evolving situation.

This is fairly good wind veers more northerly!

post-19153-0-24343900-1422746049_thumb.j

Edited by Daniel*
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