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ECM mean tonight is worth taking note of:

 

EDM1-96.GIF?30-0EDM1-120.GIF?30-0EDM1-144.GIF?30-0

 

72 hours of a NEly flow, slowly veering more and more Easterly as time goes on. And with uppers in this range:

 

EDM0-96.GIF?30-0EDM0-120.GIF?30-0EDM0-144.GIF?30-0

 

No risk of any marginality there

 

SK

Great charts. Winds moving away from the Pest and towards the Beast. Let's keep an eye on it.

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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

Posted Images

Whilst the skies remain clear there will be a widespread frost

nmmuk-0-12-0.png?30-18

Temperatures tend to lift during the early hours as a front moves south down the east coast.

 

Tomorrow

post-17424-0-01075500-1422654019_thumb.p

Fresh northerly wind

A messy affair with showers or longer spells of wintry precipitation. Snowking has gone into this thoroughly anyway. Possible front edge snow but tending to turn back to rain.

Temperatures

nmmuk-0-2-0.png?30-18

3-5C

 

Overnight

post-17424-0-12655800-1422654020_thumb.p

Showers continue to run down the eastern side of the country, falling as a wintry mix

Temperatures around 0-2C

 

Sunday

post-17424-0-13472500-1422654021_thumb.p

Moderate to fresh northerly

That trough feature could bring some quite heavy showers to parts of the region. Looking at the precipitation charts there could be snow anywhere, but the showers tending to be heaviest up around Norfolk.

Temperatures

nmmuk-0-49-0.png?30-19

Generally 2-4C

 

Sunday night

post-17424-0-13630500-1422654022_thumb.p

Winds begin to drop out a little

Away from the north east of the region, I suspect this will be a clear night with a hard frost developing

Temperatures - between -2c and -6C, maybe lower in places.

 

Monday

post-17424-0-12677900-1422654023_thumb.p

Moderate northerly wind

Snow showers cannot be ruled out in parts of Norfolk, Suffolk and Kent, otherwise a fine and sunny day.

Temperatures - 1-4C

 

Tuesday onwards is beginning to look interesting as the atmosphere becomes more unstable again and the winds veer more towards the north east.

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Its good !!! but its not quite Carling. 

If only that Ridge would extend a little bit over to Scandinavia.

I think we would all be happy with '72' hours there would be some eastern fringes getting a right dumping and some of these showers will push inland, good for these parts. As long as there is a risk of decent snow.

I do not give a shoot, how we get it!

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Quite cold 2*C with a -1*C dew point.

Unsure about tomorrow, NMM looks decent perhaps it is overdoing it, it did do quite well with yesterday.

It's quite possible given expected developments from NW tonight. Ditto more to SW: awkward forecast mix however, of rain/sleet/snow.

Edited by Daniel*
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Tuesday onwards is beginning to look interesting as the atmosphere becomes more unstable again and the winds veer more towards the north east.

 

That is very pertinent - I have just been taking a look at one of the mid-res type charts (10km resolution out to 4 days) which starts to show showers moving inland off the North sea towards Tuesday lunchtime.

 

Obviously at the current range I am by no means suggesting this is the definite outcome, but should the currently modelled flow come to pass, albeit at present nothing especially heavy looks modelled, the shower train off the North Sea looks set to start firing up. And when we consider the rather positive SSTA's currently surrounding the UK:

 

sst_anom.gif

 

It's not difficult to see why.

 

Plenty of time to go yet before we can start firming up on the detail but certainly some showery potential showing there (and should be obvious from high confidence MetO warnings)

 

SK

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I think you slightly missed my point Daniel, in their eyes it wasn't an event worthy of anything other than a low advisory

despite the reaction on here . Was it actually a true polar low ? 

Polar Low lol!!! My word, memories fade if we're left calling this fiasco of a cold spell polar low: most of the back edge was rain and those who saw any white stuff lying had to blink twice before it went. 

 

The problem with the current set up is that's it's burning up precious winter. It would be better to clear the whole lot out the way and have a proper reload. Instead we may have this toppler high faffing around for a week.

 

Better than last winter but still complete rubbish, let's be honest.

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Tuesday

post-17424-0-11711100-1422657539_thumb.p

Light northerly wind

Same sort of day, sunshine and snow showers on exposed coasts. Mostly dry and sunny inland. Of course disturbances could develop nearer the time.

Temperatures - 1-3C

 

Wednesday

post-17424-0-20668200-1422657540_thumb.p

Moderate north easterly wind

Turning even colder with snow showers becoming widespread in the east of the region, these could spread to western parts at times. 

Temperatures - 0-2C

 

The snow lasted all day in places here, despite the sunnier spells and rain. Some of the roads tonight were very icy. 

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Polar Low lol!!! My word, memories fade if we're left calling this fiasco of a cold spell polar low: most of the back edge was rain and those who saw any white stuff lying had to blink twice before it went.

The problem with the current set up is that's it's burning up precious winter. It would be better to clear the whole lot out the way and have a proper reload. Instead we may have this toppler high faffing around for a week.

Better than last winter but still complete rubbish, let's be honest.

Had enough about this polar low - pretty damn good cold plunge albeit short lived NE'ly of some sorts is on the way in the reliable with firm support. in fact it would be great for your location with frequent showers pillng in there's no bother getting blinded further afield when it is right in front of you, I see this to be best chance of the winter. Could provide streamer features for the SE & the region. We all know what happened in 2010...

post-19153-0-58881100-1422657644_thumb.jpost-19153-0-12021700-1422657660_thumb.j

This is definitely snowy convective to my eye - there's a big ol' gradient

Edited by Daniel*
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Memo just in from the MetO to Croydon Council

 

Expect light snow during the early hours of Saturday

 

Unquote: I can not see where this snow will come from, but MetO might know of a ppn disturbance which will intensify in the early hours. MetO are still going for snow during Saturday afternoon.


Gritters have been deployed to treat A & B Routes

Edited by yamkin
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Memo just in from the MetO to Croydon Council

 

Expect light snow during the early hours of Saturday

 

Unquote: I can not see where this snow will come from, but MetO might know of a ppn disturbance which will intensify in the early hours.

                 MetO are still going for snow during Saturday afternoon.

Gritters have been deployed to treat A & B Routes

Shirley not ;)
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Memo just in from the MetO to Croydon Council

 

Expect light snow during the early hours of Saturday

 

Unquote: I can not see where this snow will come from, but MetO might know of a ppn disturbance which will intensify in the early hours. MetO are still going for snow during Saturday afternoon.

Gritters have been deployed to treat A & B Routes

Look to the the North West, it has this regions name on it.

post-19153-0-04612700-1422658132_thumb.j

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Polar Low lol!!! My word, memories fade if we're left calling this fiasco of a cold spell polar low: most of the back edge was rain and those who saw any white stuff lying had to blink twice before it went. 

 

The problem with the current set up is that's it's burning up precious winter. It would be better to clear the whole lot out the way and have a proper reload. Instead we may have this toppler high faffing around for a week.

 

Better than last winter but still complete rubbish, let's be honest.

Lets be honest though so far the flow has been mainly from the W/WNW. Now considering this some locations have done okay with snowfall. We then have next weeks colder spell with those NE,lys.

 

Still I do take your point though. I was thinking back yesterday to Feb 91 when the temps, dewpoints were incredibly cold and the powder snow was amazing. Still remember how this used to snake across the road due to being so dry.

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Polar Low lol!!! My word, memories fade if we're left calling this fiasco of a cold spell polar low: most of the back edge was rain and those who saw any white stuff lying had to blink twice before it went. 

 

The problem with the current set up is that's it's burning up precious winter. It would be better to clear the whole lot out the way and have a proper reload. Instead we may have this toppler high faffing around for a week.

 

Better than last winter but still complete rubbish, let's be honest.

 

Surprised we had over 6mm of rain last night - certainly doesn't account to 1cm of snow we received on the coast of Essex, I wasn't up last night/early hours so I take it the precipitation was mainly rain?

Agreed with the polar low episode - not a polar low in my view, a few people should experience a 70's or early 80's one which dumped many a few inches in a number of springs and had no mild sector what so ever.

 

Just saw Alex Deakin forecast for the weekend and all he seemed to want to go on about was the wind! - temps will be disappointingly high (up to 5c) and showers largely of rain or sleet, the sooner the possibility of north easterlies get here the better (clutching at straws) as this is yet another poor attempt at bringing any cold to the south in my opinion. 

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Polar Low lol!!! My word, memories fade if we're left calling this fiasco of a cold spell polar low: most of the back edge was rain and those who saw any white stuff lying had to blink twice before it went. 

 

The problem with the current set up is that's it's burning up precious winter. It would be better to clear the whole lot out the way and have a proper reload. Instead we may have this toppler high faffing around for a week.

 

Better than last winter but still complete rubbish, let's be honest.

For once I find myself in agreement. Its a pretty sad state of affairs when we get excited over wet snow and slush thats gone within 12 hours. Oh how I wish we get even half of what we had in 09/10.

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The snow that may hit tomorrow is to our N currently E of Edinburgh.

Hmm I'd take both interesting developments to the NW all the same - Gritter gone past here.

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Alot to keep our eye on. The band across W Midlands/Wales/NW England could well track SE and arrive in London around dawn. At the same time another band will move into Lincs before sinking S across our region tomorrow afternoon. However whether the band tomorrow will bring snow is hard to say and could be more of a wintry mix.

 

 

Just add Sunday could be very interesting for Norfolk, Suffolk especially N Norfolk.

Edited by TEITS
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Metoffice has light snow forecast between 5-7am this coming Saturday morning for my location. Mind, they said the same last night and it drizzled for a few hours. Likely?

Snow is much more likely to fall compared to last night with more favourable WBFL along with dew point & temp, it will struggle to reach 4c tomorrow and I assume those under precip the temp will be kept down, NMM is really going for it - I rate it highly, following last few days.

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Anyone moaning about the snow is mad. Yesterday I saw falling snow and for a short while lying snow for the first time in years.

 

My 19 month old daughter went nuts seeing it!

 

Do I hope for a few inches and a snowman? Sure, but next week it still a possibility and as always with snow and especially easterlies they can brew out of nothing. 

 

I loved the little bit we saw falling, it's already a 1000% improvement over last winter!

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