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As our current cold spell draws to a close. A new thread and a new chase for cold begins.

It might not be too far away if some models are to be believed

ECH1-240.GIF?22-12

EDH1-240.GIF?22-12

The ECM and ens suggesting the potential for a more northerly flow to develop at the very end of January and into the start of February. Will it come off? Who knows at the moment.

Enjoy and lets hope that we get a significant cold and snowy blast in the near future.

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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

Posted Images

Did our current cold spell start then

Must of missed it.

Just chilly with rain

Normal autumn weather.

Oh yeah and two frosts.

Never mind hope the next one fairs better for South of London.

Great for those that did get some snow though, but I believe that wasn't that great either.

Still awaiting a snowflake or even sleet

Edited by snowbob
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Have you still not got any oil?

i have , thats why one room is warm, the rest blinking freezing, i will be sleeping in the lounge again tonight, on the floor, or i might die of the cold  :)

It looks like a summers day out there,wispy clouds ,suns out 

Edited by Jo S
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i have , thats why one room is warm, the rest blinking freezing, i will be sleeping in the lounge again tonight, on the floor, or i might die of the cold  :)

It looks like a summers day out there,wispy clouds ,suns out

Hope it doesn't get to chilly for you, some warmer weather on the way for the weekend :=)

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Said it yesterday and yep sorry guys.. 

 

From Fergie.. 

 

Latest from UKMO unified model monthly suite (incorporating GloSea5) indicates unsettled phase first half of February. Thereafter, signal is more ambiguous, with increased number of blocked members. This *may* result in greater likelihood of colder episodes, but tonight's EC Monthly update is awaited to offer comparative prognosis. 

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im popping in and out of here, not much going on, as all is quiet on the weather front, off to watch a film now, i will be spying though  :ninja:  :ninja:  :ninja:  :ninja:

What film are you watching? :ninja: :ninja: :ninja: The temperature has dropped to 4.5c! :cold: :cold:

Edited by lassie23
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hi, well watching Asylum rubbish film, but i need to know whats going to happen, so one of them films, watched house on the haunted hill 1,2 all rubbish,  :) getting cold out there now

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Dew point is low -3C must be some very chilly/dry continental air, as ever no PPN about when it is conducive, looks like we can wipe out Jan - and extend out towards Febuary for further wintery interest.

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This will be a good read for some, or for those that ask the same questions every half hour during a potential snow event...

 

As snow forecasted fails to materialise again, why is it so difficult to predict?

When rain is forecast it normally falls. When we are promised blue skies we can usually get out the sunglasses. But snow? Now that is a different story and so much harder to guarantee.

But why?

On Tuesday evening, up to 10cm (3.9in) of snow was predicted to fall in parts of Wales, with yellow warnings from the Met Office telling motorists of possible travel disruption.

But when curtains were drawn open on Wednesday morning, instead of being greeted by the crisp white stuff, the sight was of wet pavements.

So where were the predicted snow flurries and why was the forecast so wrong?

The Met Office admits forecasting snow "will always be a challenge" in the UK as there is often a "fine line between whether it will rain or snow". This means a difference in height or air mass can completely alter the outlook.

BBC weather presenter Rhian Haf said: "Predicting snow is harder than anything else.

"Most precipitation falls out of the sky as snow to start with, but it melts to rain."

Snow is more likely in higher areas as the temperature is cooler, meaning rain may fall as snow in mountainous areas giving the dusting of snow on peaks which is commonly seen at this time of year.

Equally, snow is less likely to fall in urban areas because of the warmer surroundings. In central London it will rain sometimes, while a relatively short way away just outside the M25 there is heavy snow.

"It only takes a tenth of a degree for it to be either rain or snow," said Rhian Haf.

"When we predict snow it will be falling somewhere, it is just hard to say whether it will be in one place or another.

From the BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-30915183

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Here is an interesting question to pass the time and perhaps kick off some interesting discussion...

Why is it 9 times out of 10 the "M4" is always quoted as the snow/rain line?

Is there a line of giant heaters along the M4 way up in the clouds?....I mean why oh why does it always seem to be the case.

Do the lows almost always take the same track etc?

It baffles me and pee's me off in equal measure.  :diablo:

Edited by Shrimper
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Here is an interesting question to pass the time and perhaps kick off some interesting discussion...

Why is it 9 times out of 10 the "M4" is always quoted as the snow/rain line?

It baffles me and pee's me off in equal measure.  :diablo:

General rule of thumb to be honest there's no such thing as linear lines or as some think M4 motorway separating snow from rain. What you get in reality is abstract with indents and all sorts, it is usually less marginal futher north, not always though - ie. via an easterly, it is a buzz phrase, that can be misinforming.
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Maybe put the heating on

economy heating way to expensive ,as long as i have one warm room, i ok, i begrudge paying extortionate heating bills ,ive only got electric, no gas, except calor gas heater, Oh no not i, i will survive as Gloria Gayner said, but she wasn't talking about warmth :D  

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Tonight

Skies should clear to leave a widespread air frost

Temperatures

nmmuk-0-20-0.png?22-18

Widely -1C to -3C. Perhaps down to -5C in sheltered spots.

 

Tomorrow

post-17424-0-15514000-1421954353_thumb.p

Strengthening south westerly wind

A dry and bright start, freezing fog in places to start. Cloud will increase later.

Temperature

nmmuk-0-26-0.png?22-18

3-5C

 

Overnight

A band of rain will push through overnight, this will clear by morning, a ground frost is possible early and late in the night.

 

Saturday

post-17424-0-18769200-1421954354_thumb.p

Moderate north westerly wind

A dry and sunny day for all pretty much.

Temperatures

nmmuk-0-50-0.png?22-18

4-6C

 

Overnight

Clear with a widespread frost

nmmuk-0-64-0.png?22-19

0C to -2C

 

Sunday

post-17424-0-25733000-1421954355_thumb.p

Moderate west/south westerly wind

A dry and bright start, cloud will increase during the day with rain by evening.

Temperatures - 6-9C

 

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