February 2015 CET forecasts

[summer blizzard]

With a minimum today of -0.3C, and maxima set to reach about 7.5C, so an increase to 1.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

2.2C to the 9th (4.1)

2.3C to the 10th (3.1)

2.4C to the 11th (4.3)

2.7C to the 12th (4.9)

2.9C to the 13th (6.0)

3.1C to the 14th (6.0)

3.4C to the 15th (7.1)

3.7C to the 16th (8.8]

3.9C to the 17th (7.2)

 

Looks like things could warm up substantially toward the middle of the month. The next 10 days look set to average about 5.5C, so about 2.3C above the 61-90 average and 1.5C above the 81-10 average.

Is another February with a cold first half and very mild second half on the cards?

 

Is that being driven by maxima or minima?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Is that being driven by maxima or minima?

 

By the middle of the month, maxima are up in the low teens. So that's probably about 4-6C above average. Minima will probably be in the low to mid single figures, so 1-3C above average.

[reef]

So a 1981-2010 February averaged 4.9C by the 7th, even though the month as a whole averages 4.4C? So February is a "cooling" month? How odd...

The first week is a bit of an anomaly due to years like 1989, 2002 and 2004 which had exceptionally mild periods at the start of the month.

 

In this location the 1st-6th all have record daily maxima above 14C as a result of these warm months yet the entire second half of the month only has 5 such days above 14C in the 1981-2010 period.

 

Persistent warm spells in the final week have been quite rare in recent years, the fact the record UK maxima was recorded mid-month shows there's quite a lot of potential for an even more potent warm spell later in the month.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 1.9c to the 8th

 

2.5c below the 61 to 90 average

 

2.9c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Huge jump here due an unexpected mild day yesterday and following night. It jumped from 1.6C to 2.1C. They'll be another big jump tomorrow as well. 

[damianslaw]

Should see a marked upward turn in the CET now for the foreseeable, but far too early to call an above or below average month, a cool down towards the end of the month could scupper an above average month, but we are likely to be very near the average if not a bit above as we enter the last third of the month thanks to some marked mild maxima, much will depend on cloud cover.

[Weather-history]

Looks like another February is going to go by without producing a notably low CET. It will be 25 years since one come next February.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 2.0c to the 9th

 

2.3c below the 61 to 90 average

 

2.7c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Colder than expected overnight prevented a massive rise today so we're up to 2.3C in Sheffield. At the moment it's looking like another air frost tonight so not much change tomorrow.

[damianslaw]

Looks like another February is going to go by without producing a notably low CET. It will be 25 years since one come next February.

 

 

Yes we are overdue a cold one.. perhaps only a matter of time, we had to wait nearly 30 years for a notably cold December (Dec 10) after Dec 81, and 23 years for a notably cold Jan after 1987.

 

Its notable how we are seeing very contrasting same calendar months in the space of a year, March 2012 and 2013 being an excellent case in point, Apr 2011 and 2012 also, Feb 14 and 15 looking to go down the same route, the former exceptionally wet, this one potentially exceptionally dry. Nov 09 and 10 also complete opposites.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 1.2C, while maxima reached the mid to high 5s, so there should be an increase to 2.2C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

2.3C to the 11th (3.2)

2.3C to the 12th (2.8]

2.5C to the 13th (5.0)

2.8C to the 14th (6.0)

3.0C to the 15th (6.0)

3.1C to the 16th (3.9)

3.2C to the 17th (4.8]

3.3C to the 18th (5.1)

3.4C to the 19th (5.0)

 

So the latest GFS would have us 1.4C below the 81-10 average by the 15th and 0.8C below the 61-90 average. By the 19th, these gaps are down to 0.9C and 0.2C.

 

 

 

[Daniel*]

0.0C please I think we are going to get a synoptic not seen in many years... February will be bitter, and almost relentless easing into March. I see lows forming in cold air resulting in snow storms. It will be a month characterised by snow, gales & disruption. I do not see it being extraordinarily cold however the windchill will be brutal - it will persist and anchor down, with troughs & disturbances in abundance delivering snow for many.

image.jpg

All going to plan? if there is any consolation its looking better than January.

[Weather-history]

10th January- 9th February CET about 3.2C

Could we just about go under 3C for a rolling 31 day average? 10th January was very mild.

Edited February 11, 2015 by Weather-history

[Weather26]

No Update from Hadley today.

[Summer Sun]

2.2c to the 11th

 

2.0c below the 61 to 90 average

 

2.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 3.1C while maxima look like reaching around 5.5C, so an increase to 2.4C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

2.6C to the 13th (5.0)

2.8C to the 14th (5.4)

3.0C to the 15th (6.0)

3.2C to the 16th (6.1)

3.3C to the 17th (4.1)

3.3C to the 18th (3.8]

3.4C to the 19th (4.6)

3.5C to the 20th (5.9)

3.7C to the 21st (7.5)

 

So averaging 1.1C above the 81-10 average and 2.2C above the 61-90 average over the next 7 days, and 1.4C and 2.3C above for 10 days out, mostly driven by increased maxima. So a mild period looks likely, but not exceptionally so.

[Weather-history]

12th January-11th February 2015 CET about 3.0C

Edited February 12, 2015 by Weather-history

[damianslaw]

12th January-11th February 2015 CET about 3.0C

 

 

Whilst certainly not what you could describe as cold for mid period of winter, it has been a  mid winter period below average - so you could say those going for cold heart to winter were right.. just not what you could really describe as 'cold', but the coldest conditions relative to the mean have occurred in the mid winter period.

 

Back to the Feb CET, well it looks like a rare month where we will be entering the second half around about 1.5 degree below average.. not sure last time we were in the same position, quite probably June 2013..

 

The outlook though is a relatively mild one but not especially so, so still good odds of squeezing out a below average month at least relative to the 81-00 mean, and unless we see an exceptionally mild last week - which based on longer term model outputs looks extremely unlikely, it can't go down as a mild one, thanks to the cold first half.

[Summer of 95]

This month is becoming the winter equivalent of all those crap summer months that end up average or above due to endless cloud keeping the nights warm.

Lots of 3-4C maxes but barely a frost.

[March Blizzard]

I'd say this February is very much like 2012, 2009 and 2003 to be honest, very similar pattern in the sense of a cold first half and warm second half.

Warm second half? It hasn't even started yet!

[Summer Sun]

2.5c to the 12th

 

1.7c below the 61 to 90 average

 

2.1c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited February 13, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Weather-history]

12th January-11th February 2015 CET about 3.0C

13th January-12th February CET about 2.9C

Considering questions were asked whether we would record a CET month of below 3.0C, I think 6 of the last 7 winters have recorded have recorded at least a 31 day rolling period that went sub 3C

[North-Easterly Blast]

Another February passes by without being notably cold - the last significantly cold February we saw was back in 1991.  Compared to the fact that in recent times we have seen the second coldest December on record in 2010 and a March in 2013 that almost but not quite made the top ten coldest on record, and in 2010 we also saw a January that was well below average (1.4 CET).  The coldest February of recent times was 2.8*C in 2010.  Prior to 1991 sub 2*C Februarys were not so unusual, occurring at least once or often twice a decade from the 1940s to the 1980s, and even the 1900s, 1910s and 1920s all managed at least one sub 2*C February.

 

We are about 2.7*C up to mid month as of today.  On current output we could be nudging 4*C by the 22nd / 23rd, and then if the final few days remain above average we will come out similar to January's figure, although if there is some colder weather in the last few days of this month, we could see comfortably the coldest month of the winter and come in below 4*C.  Something between 3.5 and 4.5 is currently the landing zone for this month now.

[Weather26]

Up to 2.7 up to the 13th

 

1.4c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.9c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited February 14, 2015 by Weather26

[Summer Sun]

Up to 2.7 up to the 13th

 

1.4c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.8c below the 81 to 10 average

 

I make it 1.9c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited February 14, 2015 by Summer Sun