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Roger J Smith

February 2015 CET forecasts

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Table of CET averages and extremes

 

12.4 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

10.0 ... lowest daily extreme max (16th Feb 1928)

7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779
7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869
7.3 ... tied third warmest month of Feb 1990 and 1998

7.2 ... fifth warmest month of Feb 1794

 

6.2 ... 2014 CET (tied with 1877 as 32nd warmest out of 356 cases)

4.7 ... mean for 2001-2014
4.4 ... mean 1981-2010
4.2 ... mean for 1971-2000
4.0 ... mean for 1801-1900 and 1901-2000

3.9 ... mean for 1659-2014 (all 356 years)
3.8 ... mean for 1961-1990 and 1701-1800

2.9 ... mean for 1659-1700

-1.1 ... fifth coldest month of Feb, coldest in recent years 1986
-1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740
-1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855
-1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895
-1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

-2.4 ... highest daily extreme min (29th 1904)
-2.8 ... highest daily extreme min, not leap year day (27th, 1929)

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816
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Your February 2015 forecasts can be submitted up to end of the day 31st Jan without penalty or up to the end of the 3rd of Feb with increasing time penalties applied.

 

FACTOID -- It is my understanding that CET averages for pre-Gregorian times (Oct 1752 and previous) refer to the dates that would have been various months in our calendar, not to the dates that actually were those months in the years in question.

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4.2 Please.

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Rest in pieces 'winter' 2014/2015!  8C  :(  Last sub -1C, last sub 0C and last sub 1C February in 1986.  Last sub 2C February in 1991.  Last sub 3C February in 2010.  Last sub 3.5C February in 2013.

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Table of CET averages and extremes

 

12.4 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

10.0 ... lowest daily extreme max (16th Feb 1928)

7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779

7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869

7.3 ... tied third warmest month of Feb 1990 and 1998

7.2 ... fifth warmest month of Feb 1794

 

6.2 ... 2014 CET (tied with 1877 as 32nd warmest out of 356 cases)

4.7 ... mean for 2001-2014

4.4 ... mean 1981-2010

4.2 ... mean for 1971-2000

4.0 ... mean for 1801-1900 and 1901-2000

3.9 ... mean for 1659-2014 (all 356 years)

3.8 ... mean for 1961-1990 and 1701-1800

2.9 ... mean for 1659-1700

-1.1 ... fifth coldest month of Feb, coldest in recent years 1986

-1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740

-1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855

-1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895

-1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

-2.4 ... highest daily extreme min (29th 1904)

-2.8 ... highest daily extreme min, not leap year day (27th, 1785)

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Your February 2015 forecasts can be submitted up to end of the day 31st Jan without penalty or up to the end of the 3rd of Feb with increasing time penalties applied.

 

FACTOID -- It is my understanding that CET averages for pre-Gregorian times (Oct 1752 and previous) refer to the dates that would have been various months in our calendar, not to the dates that actually were those months in the years in question.

That is the date when the new style calendar was brought in.The dates 2nd to 14th oct 1752 were removed from history[or something like that !!]

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Over the last 18 years, the coldest February we've had has not been as cold as the coldest December, January or March. It's time for February to step up to the winter plate.

I'm going for 1.7c

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Will wait until the end of the month, but a strong chance it will be the coldest month of the winter, given how January is panning out..

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-1.1 he says hopefully!

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So here we are the last month of winter coming up.

My guess will be 1.9C

  • The Arctic oscillation will be negative throughout the month.
  • The North Atlantic oscillation will be neutral/positive for the first half of the month but trending negative during the second half.

Add to that a possible strong stratospheric warming happening at the end of the month along with the polar vortex shifting to Siberia at the top and bottom levels. 

So all in all the first half of the month will be dominated by winds from the north west with a couple of cold north/north easterly plunges though these will be transient. The second half could potentially develop a much more blocked set up on our side and perhaps a spell of very cold weather.

In the end it's all a case of weather the polar vortex will obliterate during this month. If it does then we may get a month which will stamp this winter as memorable. If it doesn't then it will probably end up a near or slightly below average month. 

As the phrase goes... "no guts no glory", I am siding with the colder solution.

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