Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

[Chris K]

Azores High has been and will be a nusence in winter for coming years I read that back in Summer last year.. 

 

However.. And of course really straight forward... In Summer.. When that ridges up over us.. 

 

Let's just I feel this coming summer is going to be a beaut!

Where did you read that to? The Azores high is a semi-permenant feature, so it has and will continue to be a nuisance to cold fans at times.

It really is luck of the draw in how it aligns and where exactly it sits. This winter it has had too much tendency to nudge towards the UK and topple.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/The-Azores-High.htm

[Fozfoster]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-13.51,56.18,922

Is this the easterly some chased?

[Banbury]

From the control

[Hotspur62]

From the control

Although there are Heights due North and the Vortex is split, the main part of this is over Greenland again and would this mean that we would still have a continuation of Polar Maritime Influence. I appreciate there is now a Low Pressure just West of Iberia and the AH has shifted more NW which has got to be a benefit but am a bit confused .I hesitate to say these may be stepping stones to a change in pattern(finally) but I could be talking cobblers!!Would appreciate comments from the experts on if this chart(albeit in FI holds that dreaded word..POTENTIAL!! lol

[nick sussex]

Large differences upstream between the ECM and the GFS at T144hrs. The ECM has a better NH profile at that stage, as long as that US plains shortwave phases with the chunk of low heights thrown westwards as the pattern amplifies then I'd expect the ECM to look better than the GFS in its later timeframes.

Edited January 22, 2015 by nick sussex

[Weathizard]

 

At face value, this chart is certainly not without interest.

[bluearmy]

Ecm run is flatter than previous runs with less euro trouging to our se by 29th. Wait to see it the last few frames amplify considerably

[Frosty.]

I want to see increasing amounts of this in subsequent output with the Azores high taking a battering, there are some very promising 12z perturbations popping up with arctic airflow and i would like to see more longevity from the next cold outbreak, the gefs mean at T+240 is going in the right direction, hoping the Azores high will get forced further west and then build north and block the Atlantic so we (coldies) can enjoy a sustained Northerly type flow with snow showers and severe frosts.

[Weathizard]

ECM at day 9

GFS at day 9

 

[TEITS]

The evidence certainly points to some form of N,ly or NW,ly. This is clearly shown on the GFS, JMA, ECM. However what is also evident at the moment is it does not look likely to be a sustained N,ly.

 

This brings little interest to me but I appreciate other members locations who could see some notable snowfalls in the NW,ly flow especially Scotland.

Edited January 22, 2015 by TEITS

[cold snap]

ECM at day 9

GFS at day 9

I refuse to be sucked in to chasing a toppler

GFS ECM =24 hour toppler as things stand

Edited January 22, 2015 by cold snap

[nick sussex]

Ecm run is flatter than previous runs with less euro trouging to our se by 29th. Wait to see it the last few frames amplify considerably

At least it digs the troughing in earlier than the GFS and keeps the Azores high further to the west, I prefer its trend although not as good as some of its earlier outputs.

[fergieweather]

I refused to be sucked in to chasing a toppler

GFS ECM =24 hour toppler as things stand

...but detail difficult, including longevity (allowing however for the transient nature as signalled). More important is the clear propensity for pattern change(s), something utterly absent this time last year when the Somerset Levels looked more akin to the Florida Everglades. As Tamara outlined, the potential players further ahead are varied, complex and continuing to prove enigmatic this winter. Indeed, UKMO Chief F'caster tells me his team met for an hour this morning solely to discuss global drivers, which remain tricky to correlate (versus climatology) with some longer M-R and monthly ensemble suites (as has been so all winter, making the GloSea5 performance thus-far all the more creditable).

[nick sussex]

Some bizarre goings on with the MJO, the current tracking has it back in phase 7 at low amplitude when forecasts just a few days ago had it going into the COD.

 

With the low amplitude perhaps this won't make much difference but its strange how forecasts of just 5 days ahead have proved to be wrong.

[Ali1977]

Let's get the Northerly here first, if it can just hold for a few days then maybe it will create a decent enough ridge and Eve tually form a blocking scenario. It's about time we had a sub zero Feb CET...!!

[Frosty.]

If I was offered the Ecm 12z now, I would take it, the general idea of the 0z is intact and although the latest run has pressed on the accelerator, there is scope for further reloads beyond T+240. The most important aspect for me at this range is the trend towards the most potent cold outbreak of this winter so far within the next 7-10 days

[southbank]

I suggest it's worth a read in the strat thread , Andrew (recretos) has done some stunning modelling work which is v interesting , there is correlation to what inputs we are seeing via NWP , the deep troughing is strat driven , expect a few days of choppy charts in la la land but may prove a pivotal point in a thus far bland winter

[polarwind]

Where did you read that to? The Azores high is a semi-permenant feature, so it has and will continue to be a nuisance to cold fans at times.

It really is luck of the draw in how it aligns and where exactly it sits. This winter it has had too much tendency to nudge towards the UK and topple.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/The-Azores-High.htm

 

 

I'm not sure that its is the luck of the draw as to how the Azores high aligns and where it sits. Prof. Joanna Haigh has published research that correlates alignment of The Azores High and where it sits with the UV output of the sun and cold winters in NW Europe and NE North America. 

see list of her papers - http://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/j.haigh/publications.html

 

The research in this area was soon taken on board by NASA, and in collaboration with Joanna Haigh and others, has been increasing our knowledge in this area.

 

The Azores High lately has more in common with the synoptics of the 60's than the 90's and since.  It seems to be more intense and centred more nearly over The Azores than being less strong and spread out towards central Europe with the jet being forced to the north of Europe. 

The polar vortex perhaps dances to the same tune of UV and correlated changes with different but sometimes enhanced consequences as to the position of the jet stream.

Edited January 22, 2015 by polarwind

[blizzard81]

Let's get the Northerly here first, if it can just hold for a few days then maybe it will create a decent enough ridge and Eve tually form a blocking scenario. It's about time we had a sub zero Feb CET...!!

We are surely due a cold February. I believe in the law of averages.

[ANYWEATHER]

The 12zs ecm and gfs at months end again show some amplication  in the North Atlantic, with a deep low digging into Scandi . So perhaps a trend to much colder conditions via the route of Northwesterlies , Northerlies or even Northeasterlies. between then, But in between, an unsettled spell, plenty of cold weather in the mix, with a little bit of mild.....Folks ,don't call the party off, history shows that the winter fireworks often begin late January/early February,,,,,,,,,,

[Mucka]

All the uncertainty seems to be related to the possibility of the models not having a full grip on background drivers - otherwise set zonal with scope for cold snap from toppler event end of Jan early Feb. Thereafter uncertainty re more sustainable blocking and cold would come into play.

[fergieweather]

Almost irrespective of where we eventually sit on the 'coldness' score, a very striking aspect of the weather towards end of next week is just how windy it could become: perhaps disruptively so. Certainly looking a key focus for model-watching.

[ANYWEATHER]

Almost irrespective of where we eventually sit on the 'coldness' score, a very striking aspect of the weather towards end of next week is just how windy it could become: perhaps disruptively so. Certainly looking a key focus for model-watching.

[winterof79]

A few posts apparently referring to how winter is panning out in the south.Midlands north has had two decent snow events ,boxing day and Tuesday/Wed and Scotland many.

The end if next week has the potential to bring a proper deep winter storm through with low 850s into the mix.Fascinating so far.

Hope to post charts a little later.

Edited January 22, 2015 by winterof79

[Chris K]

I'm not sure that its is the luck of the draw as to how the Azores high aligns and where it sits. Prof. Joanna Haigh has published research that correlates alignment of The Azores High and where it sits with the UV output of the sun and cold winters in NW Europe and NE North America.

see list of her papers - http://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/j.haigh/publications.html

The research in this area was soon taken on board by NASA, and in collaboration with Joanna Haigh and others, has been increasing our knowledge in this area.

The Azores High lately has more in common with the synoptics of the 60's than the 90's and since. It seems to be more intense and centred more nearly over The Azores than being less strong and spread out towards central Europe with the jet being forced to the north of Europe.

The polar vortex perhaps dances to the same tune of UV and correlated changes with different but sometimes enhanced consequences as to the position of the jet stream.

Thank you. I was not aware of this research. It is very interesting and just goes to show the complex nature of meteorology and linked sciences.

To clarify myself, I did not mean "luck of the draw" in the sense as to why the Azores is there..a poor choice of words from me there. What I wanted to say was that the smallest of changes on the day to day basis from the Azores high can often mean big differences in the surface weather we subsequently end up with in the UK.

Edited January 22, 2015 by Chris K