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Paul

Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

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Yes that UKMO progression T72 to T96 looks strange, it's almost as if weather stops moving for the day!

GFS takes the slider low directly through the UK this time - but the return if Atlantic sourced weather by the end of next week continues to be modelled widely.

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GEM t90 close to GFS except with the pattern further West. Widespread snow again.

 

 

gemnh-0-90.png?00

 

UKMO is poor IMO, I hope it is wrong.

Edited by Mucka

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Worst case scenario a week long cold spell starting today and the past week has been mostly chilly too, mild in FI, lets hope it stays there, i wouldn't be taking mild charts too seriously.

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Morning all

What a fantastic start to the day with all of a sudden a whif of 1996 about the place -

Its like my dads brut faberge -

GFS track now alligned almost north south with critically ( remember the post last night ) solid cold greenland sourced air into the western flank as opposed to wetter modified canadian sourced air from before

A double snow event for most - good for the main spine ok the UK

Leave the run at 144 with some deep overnight cold developing as the low fills away to the south & we find ourselves back in slack air with a gentle easterly fetch.

GME / DWD is again an upgrade for track & cold air purposes & by 132 has probably snow across all but the SW of england with scandi heights pushing the whole lot south

UKMO - not 100% backtrack however T 120 is certainly closer to where we want it to be as opposed to yesterdays 120-

Possible snow slightly orientated further east & north but slackening off air supporting evaporational cooling

For anything post 144 dont concern yourselves to much - expect slider developments to manifest in the next 48 hours when everything about the first low is resolved

Only the ECM & 00z JMA (84) to go....

Cheers

S

steve its been a very good start to the day and if you follow the ukmo at 72 to 96 hours there is cold air coming in from the north west rapidly and surface cold ahead so am prett certain especially across england it could be an all snow event!

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Worst case scenario a week long cold spell starting today and the past week has been mostly chilly too, mild in FI, lets hope it stays there, i wouldn't be taking mild charts too seriously.

 

Not quite.

Worse case scenario the low doesn't slide which has always been possible and modlled within ensembles. UKMO is hardly a slider but it just manages to get enough energy South. 

Here is juts one example but there are plenty more.

 

gensnh-20-1-102.png

 

Personally, the way things have gone,  I will just settle for the sliding low, hope for snow and everything else re longevity is a bonus.

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Yep! Morning folks. Sad I know but I woke and thought I must have a peek at the models and in here, definitely a shift back in the direction of cold and snow.

Fair bit to do before I'm completely satisfied, but I'm nicely surprised and hope this this is the start of a new trend. Friday we FLIPPED one way, can we FLOP the other way today.

Now for some kip and see you for the ECM

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Yep! Morning folks. Sad I know but I woke and thought I must have a peek at the models and in here, definitely a shift back in the direction of cold and snow.

Fair bit to do before I'm completely satisfied, but I'm nicely surprised and hope this this is the start of a new trend. Friday we FLIPPED one way, can we FLOP the other way today.

Now for some kip and see you for the ECM

Sleep well as models have relented. It looks great lets keep the mood positive and informative so as to keep.newbies both interested and informed based upon an unbiased model based assessment as I have seen in here this morning. It's great guys! Edited by snowfish1

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Slider at 72 hours on ecm but way west nearly west coast ireland!! Now for the 96 hour chart!!

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Well thats a relief, not that the pub run ever concerns me either way, but a flip back to the slider on the GEFS. Over 50% (12 members) go with the slider and some further west and some further east (small differences each way), so possibly room for upgrades in the next 24 hours. Of course there are some that don't slide by T120 and some that bring in HP but the main cluster is what we want.

 

By T144 the GEFS are even further apart and if we have learnt anything from this recent up and down model flip flopping is that T144 is too far out to draw conclusions. Wait till we get the slider confirmed and then we will have a better idea what follows. Anyway there are still easterlies on the table and some runs keep the cold past D8 plus. The London uppers:

 

post-14819-0-96277500-1421475028_thumb.g

 

ECM and JMA are better at around D4: post-14819-0-03393700-1421475457_thumb.g post-14819-0-41446200-1421475457_thumb.g

 

A day of continued small improvements and we should see some snow next week.

 

 

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In the short term, an upgrade from the GFS regarding snow potential for southern England on Sunday morning.

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Much better ecm!! Further west than 12z yesterday aswell! ! So very good start to the day with everything being pushed west again!!

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Massive improvements on the ecm!! Slider incoming at 144 hours!!

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T132 on the GFS

The wind over the SE in a completely different direction to the previous run, to illustrate how early we hit FI

What's of a little interest here to me is that Russian high which seems to take a little look to see whether it fancies diving south west over the UK. 


It doesn't.......this time.   But it has a lot more of a look in this run than previous ones and I'm wondering if it will find it too irresistible in a couple of runs time.......



airpressure.png
 

Edited by Timmytour

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ECM looking like building up another cold blast from the NW, maybe a blip of a warm up before something cold again late Jan. GFS also hinting this.

Edited by Ali1977

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better 00Z's snow likely for all the east, but for my location GFS is modelling a mild sector, so at best snow to rain, then to snow, I need a correction SW

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I will be interesting to see what the MO do with the projected northerly shift of the Biscay moisture. They seemed pretty certain last night it would never reach beyond the south coast. No doubt this is just one of several occurrences this week which will go to the wire.

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Yep! Morning folks. Sad I know but I woke and thought I must have a peek at the models and in here, definitely a shift back in the direction of cold and snow.

Fair bit to do before I'm completely satisfied, but I'm nicely surprised and hope this this is the start of a new trend. Friday we FLIPPED one way, can we FLOP the other way today.

Now for some kip and see you for the ECM

FLOP in progress! Much improved ECM this morning, but the highlight for me personally this morning is the positive slant to the post from IDO ;)

I'm off down the gym the treadmill will be far less laborious this morning. Enjoy the moment folks and have a great day

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Imby GFS model defo swing back to potential disruptive snow event maybe tomorrow with the front moving up from the bay of biscay , defo now cast situation

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Latest ECM has it cold until the next weekend (by that I mean nationwide maxs below 5C inland and probably much lower than that), and a number of snow opportunities.

Surprisingly, the 'mild' sector for Tuesday seems to have moved further SW compared to a day ago, so snow for many more likely on Tuesday/Wednesday though there will probably still be a horrible to forecast line where snow turns to rain - I'm guessing Cornwall, Devon and within 10 miles of the south coast up to about W Sussex. But that's just based on this run, it will still go down to T24 for Midlands north, and maybe T0 for the south, IF there aren't any more wild corrections!!

Edited by rjbw

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Imby GFS model defo swing back to potential disruptive snow event maybe tomorrow with the front moving up from the bay of biscay , defo now cast situation

Just saw the Beebs forecast and tomorrow's ppn across southern England and southeast is showing as rain. Can't see much in terms of snow forecast on the met office app either (for South East anyway). Got a rubbish meeting in central London on Tuesday so was hoping for disruptive snow for Tuesday also!!!!

Edited by AmershamMike

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