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Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards


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I'm fairly certain when Frosty see's this chart:     He's going to be outside doing a lot of this:  

My last post this morn as I'm fed up with the misery in here already. The UKMO at 144 has the PF straddling the UK & a stalled frontal line delivering snow on it similar to feb 96 - It is more a

Or perhaps it means instead that some 'apparent' absentees are sitting back and looking at a very much bigger picture than simply building cyber snowmen to get knocked down, re-built, and then knocked

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Folks, if you don't feel a post belongs in here. Please just hit the report button, rather than creating your own post that also doesn't belong here, thus creating double the work.......we will pick it up! There are 500- odd of you and only a hand ful of us, so it would be wonderful if you could take heed!

The path to true cold did never run smooth...

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At 66 hours gfs is slightly west yet again!! Stronger high to the north by 5mb!! Every little helps!!

Please stop, the little nuances on the microscale do nothing for the overall pic! Please wait until at least 96/120 before judging!

Sorry, but this just grinds my gears!

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Easy to overlook this in the rush for next week, but as a number of us keep saying, the ppn showing up Saturday and Sunday is very much inside the snow potential for upper air temps and dew points. Look at the 6z ppn and snow risk charts and you'll see what I mean: could be really interesting over this weekend.

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Anyone posted the faxes for Sunday/Monday yet? Plenty of interest; fronts Northern Scotland, Borders and South-East. The South-East front looks marginal but stays in situ a long time. Could be a lot of snow over the tops of the downs if it verifies.

fax60s.gif?1

fax72s.gif?1

fax84s.gif?1

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That shortwave over Norway seem to be the reason, once again why the Scandi High cannot influence our weather with an easterly....yet another variation on the 06z regarding ppn with only the far west/southwest effected on Tuesday....goes to show nothing in going to be certain until Monday.

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Run to run changes re the front(s) on the 20th. On the 06z run it stalls over Ireland:

 

06z: post-14819-0-62974800-1421402713_thumb.p 0z: post-14819-0-27700800-1421402713_thumb.p

 

Also phasing of the lower heights to the NW means less ridging north:

 

06z post-14819-0-47465800-1421402802_thumb.p 0z:post-14819-0-11538200-1421402802_thumb.p

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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In over 10 years on being on this site I have yet to see any model Handel a split flow on the jet , that will put the uk on either the cold side or warm side of the jet , NWP have a difficult scenario of just how much energy goes North or South of the block , in this situation I guess t72 is FI , and we see the flip flopping on the models , some Stella , some not so

The main thing is the trend , if we are on the cold side of the jet then anything can happen , take this Sunday in the SE , it won't be til sat eve probably that we will know what potentially happen.

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GFS seems to have downgraded on the 0h the last couple of days then upgrades on the 6h?

 

W/SW air flow...

gfs-0-114.png?0

 

S/SE airflow....for England at least.

gfs-0-108.png?6

Edited by GUWeather
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Lots of milder sectors coming into the picture on this run with -2c uppers mixing in with the disturbances:

 

post-14819-0-95153300-1421403456_thumb.ppost-14819-0-41349800-1421403456_thumb.ppost-14819-0-97415700-1421403455_thumb.p

 

Borderline for snow in places in the west.

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Easy to overlook this in the rush for next week, but as a number of us keep saying, the ppn showing up Saturday and Sunday is very much inside the snow potential for upper air temps and dew points. Look at the 6z ppn and snow risk charts and you'll see what I mean: could be really interesting over this weekend.

Yes, some uncertainty across the south on Sunday though between GFS and the Euros with regards to a developing front which quickly occludes out across S and SE England. This front is attached to a low over the Bay of Biscay and UKMO and ECMWF guidance bring a slow moving area of heavy rain, across central S and SE England, S Midlands and E Anglia - turning to snow on its northern edge, mainly N and W of London.

00z and 06z GFS, on the other hand, barely gets precip. inland along south coast before clearing it south.

Edited by Nick F
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A better run certainly for the SE – I am always in the rain camp when we have any westerly element. This I would take, a sow'easter coming off a cold continent.

GFS seems to have downgraded on the 0h the last couple of days then upgrades on the 6h?

 

W/SW air flow...

gfs-0-114.png?0A better chart certainly – I am never confident when there is 

 

GFS seems to have downgraded on the 0h the last couple of days then upgrades on the 6h?

 

W/SW air flow...

gfs-0-114.png?0

 

S/SE airflow....for England at least.

gfs-0-108.png?6

 

westerly component down here. Need that Sow easter cooking off a cold continue

 

S/SE airflow....for England at least.

gfs-0-108.png?6

Edited by Downpour
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Each run that goes by, the high to the east is encroaching more and more, I see an easterly in about 10 days time, after a small bite of the cherry now.

 

Yes this is a really positive sign isn't it? Weather history and a couple of others noted it earlier and the 6z really shows it: 1036mb at T111.

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ECMWF oz at 216 hours has a 1050 mb high pressure system moving westwards from Central Russia.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

For some real time conditions

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/map/#?map=Rainfall&zoom=7&lon=-5.12&lat=54.53&fcTime=1421359200

Snow falling on East Coast Northern Ireland heading South East should be across to NW England within 2 hours, for those that have any confusion with on going Synoptics.

Edited by KyleHenry
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You've only got to look at the jet stream forecast to see that the rest of this month is going to be cold/very cold and that easterly/North easterly will keenly develop late next week. 

So I think it's very encouraging. Models will start to fall into place very soon, and this place will no doubt go into meltdown again! :)

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The 06z op more in line with the 0z mean with the easterly and trough gone by D7:

 

post-14819-0-84051600-1421404389_thumb.p post-14819-0-28881000-1421404389_thumb.p

 

Remaining cold in the east till around D8-9.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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