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Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

    I have retrieved the GFS ops from the bin purely out of curiosity. Ah I see the problem. A rainfest.

     

    The slider low forms a complicated low pressure area over the UK before settling for a Spanish home allowing an HP cell over the UK which although establishing quite cold conditions will be very dry. Quite pleasant. Now back in the bin you naughty outlier.

    Charts courtesy weather bell

    Ecm at 96 -8 uppers moving south much colder than gfS!!!!
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    I'm fairly certain when Frosty see's this chart:     He's going to be outside doing a lot of this:  

    My last post this morn as I'm fed up with the misery in here already. The UKMO at 144 has the PF straddling the UK & a stalled frontal line delivering snow on it similar to feb 96 - It is more a

    Or perhaps it means instead that some 'apparent' absentees are sitting back and looking at a very much bigger picture than simply building cyber snowmen to get knocked down, re-built, and then knocked

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    I'm not seeing many positives compared to yesterday, colder spell than of late but nothing unusual. Everything has moved East meaning the ridge collapses too soon and the Easterly is watered down. A lot!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    EC DET 72 & 96 a veritable world away from the GFS

    Calm slack conditions with decent surface cold, PPN in the SE corner @72 turning more to snow - possible continuing into mon / tues as the low lingers but moves ENE as opposed to initial progs ESE-

    The slider low is into western Ireland @96 - but on the ECM its first attack hasnt made much headway -

    T120 - in she comes, closer to the GFS than UKMO

    So the GFS has been partially retrieved from the bin.

    ECM flow at 120 is poor generally for the bulk of England but very good the further north you are, nothing like the UKMO SE flow.

    Much to be resolved & the 00zs haven't really done that, however in the 120 arena the GFS & EC have linked the jet in the Atlantic ever so slightly in favour of a less tilted jet...

    S

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

    well this is turning into a bit of a blink and you will miss it affair http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011600/ECH1-144.GIF?16-12!! No way anyone can dress this up as anything but a massive downgrade on yesterday!! It will get colder but that's about it according to the 0Z runs that is, may change by tea time.

    Edited by Continental Climate
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    Posted
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level

    Well with uppers like this on the ECM at + 144 pretty much everyone can kiss goodbye to seeing any snow, warmer air incoming and winning out, we've gone from what looked odds on to be a cold spell, to it vanishing in a puff of smoke before it's even really begun. 

    But then again, did anyone REALLY believe we were about to be slammed into the freezer ?? I started to believe last night, but now I'm a non believer again

    ECM0-144.GIF?16-12

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The signal and trend from yesterday continues unfortunately, obviously not including the "pub run", which is called that for a reason, that is the fast track to the sinking cold pool and the all to familiar non-easterly. The GFS op appears to be the best possible case scenario so is likely an outlier, however whether that means it will improve is another debate! The GEFS are awful; either they have picked up signs to spoil the upcoming cold spell or it is a rogue suite; very progressive. The trend has been to downgrade the cold spell so the jury is out. Further runs today will deliver a guilty or non-guilty verdict on that.

     

    GEM is a similar synoptic to the GFS op.

     

    The UKMO may or may not deliver snow before D6, but it is a poor T144 chart going forward, as the Azores ridge will most likely link to heights to the east and we get the Atlantic by D7:

     

    post-14819-0-80146500-1421388005_thumb.g

     

    P15 is the closest to the UKMOpost-14819-0-49667000-1421388066_thumb.ppost-14819-0-20522100-1421388066_thumb.p

     

    Looking at last night's ECM ensembles it is also trending for London for a return to just below average temps: post-14819-0-15188800-1421388299_thumb.g

     

    We always see problems with lows coming in on the jet and it looks like the models really struggled even within a more reliable time frame. It is probably the usual culprit of ECM (and others) over doing heights. Looking at D5 on the ECM this morning a clear back track on the Atlantic ridge:

     

    post-14819-0-29272500-1421389368_thumb.g post-14819-0-93445600-1421389726_thumb.g

     

    It is unlikely to flip back, and it is now a case of how much further will this downgrade? Hopefully parts of the UK will get a wintry mix in this brief window.

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Hi I'm new to this is cold spell still on for next week thanks

    Coldish, poss bit on snow in SE Sun, favoured spots Midlands North on Tue/We'd. Nothing to exciting going of this mornings charts, might change though!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Well this mornings output is confusing to say the least, pretty much no consistency after about 2 days at the moment.

    FAX charts show a front sitting over the south east for well over a day.

    post-17424-0-31983100-1421390232_thumb.ppost-17424-0-46385500-1421390234_thumb.ppost-17424-0-50144800-1421390236_thumb.p

     

    Plenty of fronts prior to this that will pep up shower activity as well so again the output this morning would suggest at least a dusting for some even before we see the sliding low move in.

     

    Other charts here to prove this

    post-17424-0-71871200-1421390665_thumb.ppost-17424-0-82701200-1421390667_thumb.ppost-17424-0-00164400-1421390670_thumb.p

    Edited by Captain shortwave
    Reducing bias 100% :D
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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Well how many times have we been here before. The gfs isn't great at all. Looks like rain for many next week. The easterly has all but gone. The ukmo is slightly better. But certainly looking like a blink and miss it cold spell. cant really see them flipping back again now. I would expect us to be back in a westerly flow sooner rather than later. Not great charts at all I'm afraid. Can't post charts I'm afraid as at work.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    I'll be surprised if the METO say take the cold spells breakdown with a pinch of salt today, can anyone with more knowledge that me see the 12 and 18Zs backtracking towards cold and Easterlies again?

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

    Well with uppers like this on the ECM at + 144 pretty much everyone can kiss goodbye to seeing any snow, warmer air incoming and winning out, we've gone from what looked odds on to be a cold spell, to it vanishing in a puff of smoke before it's even really begun. 

    But then again, did anyone REALLY believe we were about to be slammed into the freezer ?? I started to believe last night, but now I'm a non believer again

    ECM0-144.GIF?16-12

    Yep its all gone a bit pear shaped hasn't it? We were looking at a more than decent easterly just two days ago and it has vanished within T120!! Must make a mental note to myself believe absolutely nothing until within T48!! Is it just me or are the models getting poorer and more unreliable as the years go on? They weren't this erratic even back in 2010 when modelling the cold we got then. They are completely wrong now sometimes within T96

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

    Oh dear. I suppose we ought to learn. 

     

    If you feel like a straw clutch to cling onto, although it's hard in the face of all 3 major models heading down the chute, then here's something. The ensemble scatter for the GFS is massive, and the operational was wildly mild compared to the mean and many other members:

     

     

    But 'tis a bit grim in model land.

     

    Incidentally, this is a disastrous performance by the ECM.

     

    Best hope are the Met Office Fax charts which are out on a limb from the other three models.

    Edited by West is Best
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

    Weren't the MET office bigging up this cold spell as well? So according to this mornings models they have got a large amount of egg on their faces as well. I suppose it isn't just us mere amateurs who get it wrong lol. 

     

    The vortex is looking all vortexy and in its usual place of residence http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011600/ECH1-192.GIF?16-12!!! Although i dont know why im posting a chart eight days away when ECM gets it all wrong within T96. WIB is correct the ECM has been atrocious during this period and during the winter as a whole. No longer the daddy among models more like the doddery old uncle!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: orpington kent
  • Weather Preferences: winter is frost and snow/summer is heatwaves
  • Location: orpington kent

    A mixed bag of EC clusters.... any pronouncements of a secure and swift return to 'mild' conditions need to be taken with pinch of salt. Meanwhile, nearer-term focus needs to be on the late Sat-Sun high WBPT plume curving atop the low running off down into Biscay. *Could* get interesting on N flank of this feature, but wide spread in PPN envelope (e.g. MOGREPS has this anywhere from N France to S Midlands!!)....

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

    don't get why people change there opinions so much within 24hrs about the model output and cold/snow potential... this cold spell is only just beginning today and over the next few days many places will see some snow... with the charts changing so much lately from one run to another i would imagine that by sunday evening the model charts will look totally different to what they do now past +120

     

    for now there doesn't look like much in the way of milder weather coming in across uk next week, only two charts from ecm this morning showing slightly warmer uppers

    ECU0-168.GIF

     

    ECU0-216.GIF

     

    Even these could produce snow for some with fronts pushing into the colder are and may not make it all the way across uk with cold air in place...still all to play for i reckon! :)

    Edited by doctor32
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    Posted
  • Location: horsehay, Telford 153m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heavy Rain
  • Location: horsehay, Telford 153m ASL

    The facts remain this is the best cold spell for two years and there is snow chances coming up.
    You lot best as anyone should know the models are indications and anything can happen when snow is concerned, just look at boxing day!
    So please for everyones sake take a chill pill and relax.
    The facts will always remain we are an island surrounded by warm water with weather influenced by the jet stream!
    Fingers crossed you all cheer up a bit

    Edited by Paul
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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl

    God its hard watching/reading posts moan about each frame that comes out!

    Wait until the suit is fully out and address the situation accordinally.Cmon mods delete some of these one liner tripe of-its over,we ought to know or,snowfest on way!

    And people as knowledgable SM is,can we stop asking him if its gona snow imby!

    Sorry for the rant mods,this is the mod thread,right?

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    The models are still working out next week, no consistency. So how some members can be writing off certain conditions one way or another is beyond me. Take note of Ian Fs quote above and Steve M.

    Lots and lots of evolution regarding the set up into next week to come over the next few days, and we have cold with snow risk this weekend. Interesting times for sure :)

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