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A tropical depression has formed east of the Philippines, with winds of 25kts. Deep convection is currently displaced from the LLCC by moderate shear. Shear is not expected to ease significantly over the next few days, but favourable outflow should allow at least some slow intensification regardless. A general westwards track towards the Philippines is expected, with eventual landfall looking likely, though not certain. Because of the marginal environment, 01W will unlikely be a typhoon at landfall, probably a moderate to strong tropical storm instead.

Edited by Somerset Squall

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01W has become Tropical Storm Mekkhala, with winds of 35kts according to JMA, though JTWC still regard the system as a 30kt tropical depression. Mekkhala is still being sheared presently, and the LLCC is partially exposed from the convection. Because of this, Mekkhala is not expected to strengthen all that much as it approaches the Philippines.

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Mekkhala has strengthened as it nears the Philippines, with winds now at 50kts. The convection has become a little more centralised, indicating some reduction in shear. The storm will make landfall soon, and as shear rises again, Mekkhala will weaken rather quickly over the Philippines. The storm is set to bring some very high rainfall totals to the Philippines, which are more than likely going to cause some significant flood impacts.

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Well, Mekkhala has strengthened much more than expected, and has become a 65kt typhoon according to JTWC. The typhoon has a vertically aligned and deep central dense overcast with spiral banding features. Mekkhala could intensify a little more prior to landfall.

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Winds have increased slightly, to 70kts, according to JTWC. An eye feature has become apparent on satellite imagery. As Mekkhala is nearing landfall, the typhoon has probably reached it's peak.

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SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER ELEVEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TROPICAL STORM "AMANG" (MEKKHALA)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Saturday, 17 January 2015

Tropical Storm "AMANG" has slightly weakened after it made landfall over Dolores, Eastern Samar and is now moving towards Bicol Region.

 

Location of Centre: (as of  10:00 p.m.) In the vicinity of Catarman, Northern Samar
Coordinates:     12.5°N, 124.7°E
Strength:     Maximum sustained winds of 85 kph near the centre and gustiness of up to 100 kph.
Movement:     Forecast to move Northwest at 15 kph.

Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Sunday evening: 125 km Northeast of Infanta, Quezon

Monday evening: 115 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan

Tuesday evening: 265 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes
 

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Mekkhala is weakening fast due to land interaction and increasing shear. Winds are down to 35kts according to JTWC. Chedza will probably dissipate soon over Luzon.

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