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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>


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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    I seem to remember hearing about that 18th December 2010 event! In Leicester we got a good covering a few days later but I remember the 18th because The Enforcer said that even Abingdon had a good covering! Which was rare to hear, haha.

    I swear the lack of snow has followed me down here. I'm just hoping that Feb will bring something of note. My grandad used to always say "February is normally the snowiest month" so I hope he turns out to be right this year!

    Yes even the enforcer got snow, change of luck then. There has been numerous times where oxford city centre has had nothing and the hilly areas like Boars Hill,Brill on the hill,Shotover have had a good few cm's.

     

    Here are some pics from 2010...

    Jan 2010.

    post-15543-0-13372500-1421798645_thumb.j  post-15543-0-79589500-1421798656_thumb.j

     

    Dec 2010.

    post-15543-0-56123700-1421798673_thumb.j  post-15543-0-02007500-1421798688_thumb.j

     

    We are due a big dumping of the white stuff in honesty ;)

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    I have a plan......   All this marginal/north of the M4 malarkey is too boring to tolerate any longer, we've got to do something. Considering just how much rain we get down here, we could have the m

    Agreed. Trough circa 3am may extend snow showers across even to S of London (hence UKMO warning amended). Meanwhile, latest UKV and MOGREPS signal for snow remains particularly strong for Exmoor and M

    What a beauty!   By far the best chart of the Winter, very much deserving of an OMG for this regional.      You couldn't make it up, just remember as a NWP model chart at t+84 hours, it is jus

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    Posted
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.

    Wow! Some really impressive snow pics there :D we are due a dumping like that again!

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    Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire

    Breaking news ... I SAW A FLAKE ON MY WINDSCREEN!

     

    That means 12 feet of snow for us all by morning then! :D

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    An absolute beaut of a downpour here. It was icey/wet snow and left a slushy white accumulation over everything.

    Temp taking a tumble during this too. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    Heavy rain started around 06:45. Developed into a spell of sleet before turning back to rain. Radar shows this wee beastie.

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    Temp 0.5 dew -1.2c a bit like a skating rink out there!

    Fromey

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    Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

    Damp here. 2.2c Light breeze. Minimum was 1.4c. 08:01 .....Cloudy..

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    Must say I was not expecting a hard frost this morning but there it was I think frost is the new snow these days although it is almost as rare now.  :rofl:

     

    So when is our next big 'snow' event? 

     

    Well after checking the model thread I see excitement is growing for the next cold spell sourced from a northerly direction, there is one problem I see with that... we see diddly squat from the north even less so than the east although frosts tend to be more common place with crystal clear skies.

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    Must say I was not expecting a hard frost this morning but there it was I think frost is the new snow these days although it is almost as rare now.  :rofl:

     

    So when is our next big 'snow' event?

    Bloody ice rink this morning and no warnings either!! Anyway below is a quote from Ian from the model thread

    EC began offering potential for a larger-scale veering of flow later (10+D period) in EPS suite of 24hrs ago. Yesterday's 12z, as I mentioned last evening, also offered more veered solutions (including a few going to NE'ly, accompanying trough disruption) with generally more meridional upper pattern. The 00z EPS are trickling-out at the moment, so not yet checked. The broad potential for a switch to colder NW-N-NE outcome, although at present not considered to result in anything too extreme (cold-wise), is something we are watching closely for signs of better continuity in EC and MOGREPS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Corfe Mullen,Wimborne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Corfe Mullen,Wimborne

    We have had 23mm of rain here in the last 24hrs.If only it was snow....

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    A further update from Ian

    Strong broadscale support for the markedly veered, colder solution in 00z EC DET amongst EPS circa 29-31 Jan (pronounced trough just E of UK), but likely a short-lived phase based on direction of clusters thereafter into early Feb.

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    Posted
  • Location: SW of Sherborne. About a mile from the Somerset border.
  • Location: SW of Sherborne. About a mile from the Somerset border.

    And there was me thinking that 8.1mm was a lot of rain for yesterday!  Currently the eastern side of the circulating rain band is still to the east of us, how long it stays there remains to be seen.  Still feeling might chilly at 2.4°C

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!

    Must say I was not expecting a hard frost this morning but there it was I think frost is the new snow these days although it is almost as rare now.  :rofl:

     

    So when is our next big 'snow' event? 

     

    Well after checking the model thread I see excitement is growing for the next cold spell sourced from a northerly direction, there is one problem I see with that... we see diddly squat from the north even less so than the east although frosts tend to be more common place with crystal clear skies.

    I was thinking this this other night! I've only had 3/4 frosts this winter! It's mad!

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot in Summer Cold in Winter
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire

    Plenty of black ice on untreated surfaces this morning, not surprising due to the rain we had last night and then the temps dropping....

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

    I was thinking this this other night! I've only had 3/4 frosts this winter! It's mad!

    Which makes this winter way better than last year when I expect you had no frosts at all lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Surprise frost this morning, was expecting it to be too cloudy and mild considering it was 03C when I went to bed last night. Roads looked very icy first thing this morning as the mercury dipped to -0.6C. Quite a bright day so far.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Worth noting that some hi-res models are hinting at 20mm+ of rain in some places on the south coast by tomorrow morning.

    30.7mm from this system. 4.6mm yesterday and 26.1mm since midnight. Proper downpours with sleet & ice mixed in!

    5.3°C and still raining.

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    It's like spring coming early, now.

    6.4C and DP of 4.4C, patches of blue sky.

    Removing DP measurements from the weather station-as they are no longer needed to watch for conditions of white stuff, especially if there's talk of a northerly, we see absolutely squat from one of those.

    So does anybody want a DP measurement from my weather station as I shan't be using it?

    SO no lamp-post outside now, no DP's it's like being in Angola!

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

    After a surprisingly promising clear then bright start today has been grim since mid morning with showery rain/drizzle and nothing remotely wintry. The temp has nudged above 4c and it is calm.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    As someone was posting snow pics I thought I would post these from when I lived in Dorset. The south dorset chaps on here will know that this is Worth Matravers on the southern tip of purbeck.  Photo taken in dec 2010 (of course). We rarely got snow here other notable years were 1994 96 and 2009.

    Is that the duck house I see? :)

    I'm not far away, and pop to Worth quite often. Lovely pics, shows that it snowed more there than it did here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    Yes that is the duck house. Even being right on the coast we always got more snow than swanage or in the valley. No snow this winter thus far and suspect it will be a non snow winter there this year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

    I have lived in Oxford all my life, 20 years old. I can only remember snow from 2007 onwards. In terms of events in last 6 years or so.

    Feb 2009. Pretty decent event Thames Streamer in London then we got a band of heavy snow moving in from the East following that, got 15cm here.

    Dec 2009- Snow managed to miss us on several occasions can remember being at Cowley and we had Snow starting to fall then had rain, everywhere else saw a bit of snow in run unto christmas.

    Jan 2010- 5th January a system moved in on the tuesday evening, then about 7pm the snow got heavy and still going strong a good 12hours later, we had 28cm, one of the best in my living memory, the system stalled over Oxon/Bucks. The following Wednesday we went back to school, that night had more snow again, another 6cm was a good one.

    Dec 2010- We managed to avoid snow on several occasions again, had a dusting twice while the rest of the country got it all, on the 18th Dec, Sat before christmas we saw a band of snow move up from SW gave us 20cm in space of 6hours this pivoted with Oxford right in the pivot.

    Feb 2012- Saw snow on the Saturday 5th? got about 5cm from that, followed by another 4cm on the Thursday. 

    January 2013- Fri 18th Jan saw us get 10cm from the system moving in off the Atlantic. Feb 2013, Saw a Rain to Snow event on one sunday evening had 2cm here in Headington, City centre a mere dusting.

    March 2013- Rest of country and up north saw that big snow event from that lively system off the Atlantic we saw some snow for a time but transient until the Sunday morning, Rain turned to snow and gave 1hour of heavy snow, big massive flakes. 

    Since then snow hasn't been seen pretty much!

    Abingdon pretty much follows the pattern of Headington, just with lower accumulations. Biggest recent fall was January 2010 with 18cm and I think about 12cm for December 2010. The 2012 amounts were similar and January 2013 was about half. Mark always does much better in rain to snow events due to his elevation and more northward position - those usually have a negligible accumulative impact here.

     

    I seem to remember hearing about that 18th December 2010 event! In Leicester we got a good covering a few days later but I remember the 18th because The Enforcer said that even Abingdon had a good covering! Which was rare to hear, haha.

    I swear the lack of snow has followed me down here. I'm just hoping that Feb will bring something of note. My grandad used to always say "February is normally the snowiest month" so I hope he turns out to be right this year!

    Yes even the enforcer got snow, change of luck then. There has been numerous times where oxford city centre has had nothing and the hilly areas like Boars Hill,Brill on the hill,Shotover have had a good few cm's.

     

    Here are some pics from 2010...

    Jan 2010.

    attachicon.gif18539_106800809335243_4359736_n.jpg  attachicon.gif18539_106800819335242_3344024_n.jpg

     

    Dec 2010.

    attachicon.gif162909_477055600815_6801522_n.jpg  attachicon.gif166115_477197285815_7128593_n.jpg

     

    We are due a big dumping of the white stuff in honesty ;)

    Abingdon is usually a good benchmark for judging the success of a cold spell in delivering snow, because you'll never get an event where we receive snow and most locations in Oxfordshire and surrounding counties do not. Of course it often occurs the other way round.

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