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A.J

South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>

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to be honest, I'm not too worried about T850's.....-3c is fine for frontal snow, it's the dewpoints an thicknesses that decide our fate as such....Up here in north Wilts, it's very very marginal, I'm around 150m (500ft) asl, hi-res modelling infers dewpoints rising to 1c with 850-1000hpa thickness no more than 1300DAM, with 500-1000hpa thickness values no higher than 528......I'd expect maybe some wet snow here, turning to sleet, and then back to wet snow as the system clears to the south sometime tomorrow. My worry is that there won;t be enough heavy ppn to drag the WBFL down enough

 

-3C 850hPa is terribly optimistic I fear for an Atlantic frontal system. The signs continue to be ominous that most areas will fall just the wrong side of marginal, as previously stated, but I hope I'm wrong. Higher ground will help but I think chances are now slim.

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-3C 850hPa is terribly optimistic I fear for an Atlantic frontal system. The signs continue to be ominous that most areas will fall just the wrong side of marginal, as previously stated, but I hope I'm wrong. Higher ground will help but I think chances are now slim.

Not really , considering it's a stalling front , so yes if your the west or South side of the front , if your East of North with southerly winds better southeasterly but you should be fine , it's more about the due points in the centre of the low that would ruin it I think . A few people are saying the low is marginally South than what the compturers predict but wel have to wait and see . If it is then 50 miles makes all the difference for the likes of Wiltshire and Oxfordshire .

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-3C 850hPa is terribly optimistic I fear for an Atlantic frontal system. The signs continue to be ominous that most areas will fall just the wrong side of marginal, as previously stated, but I hope I'm wrong. Higher ground will help but I think chances are now slim.

yes WIB, as I said, very, very marginal, even for north eastern parts of the region with elevation (150m+)......I think the Cotswold's (Cirencester northwards) might see settling snow, and maybe the marlborough downs

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Not really , considering it's a stalling front , so yes if your the west or South side of the front , if your East of North with southerly winds better southeasterly but you should be fine , it's more about the due points in the centre of the low that would ruin it I think . A few people are saying the low is marginally South than what the compturers predict but wel have to wait and see . If it is then 50 miles makes all the difference for the likes of Wiltshire and Oxfordshire .

 

What confuses me is I woke up with little to no hope of seeing anything then watched regional forecast which suggested a covering of snow over high ground this evening :cc_confused:  :fool:

 

I just cant see it except maybe Cotswolds and the plains.

Edited by Nights King

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Not really , considering it's a stalling front , so yes if your the west or South side of the front , if your East of North with southerly winds better southeasterly but you should be fine , it's more about the due points in the centre of the low that would ruin it I think . A few people are saying the low is marginally South than what the compturers predict but wel have to wait and see . If it is then 50 miles makes all the difference for the likes of Wiltshire and Oxfordshire .

I think you'll do well tonight Shaun     for me, it's on a knife-edge....still one crumb of comfort is that I've known in these scenarios to see say Chippenham with a cold frontal rain, and here 10 miles north east with an extra 100m of elevation seeing heavy settling snow

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Just drove back home from Bristol through a light period of sleet. Dry again now with occasional sunshine and more of a breeze. Temperature has also rocketed up to 03.8C. Can't see snow here tbh.

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I think you'll do well tonight Shaun for me, it's on a knife-edge....still one crumb of comfort is that I've known in these scenarios to see say Chippenham with a cold frontal rain, and here 10 miles north east with an extra 100m of elevation seeing heavy settling snow

What's your elevation do you no ?

I'm 192 meters I think ! Anything above 100 to the north side of the front should be good , it's interesting because this ones so unpredictable , the euro4 has handled it very badly and really wouldn't be surprised to see changes on the 12z , I think the changes will only be one way and that's south . No way is this front getting into northern England . We can see the front sliding down the west side of the county and it looks like it's got 2 cores on it . And think its the southern core that's gonna flourish once it mixes with slightly warmer air and water ! Be great to see a southward movement on it !

Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast

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cold here with light intermittent rain. not even the suggestion of anything wintry, other than it aint warm out! 

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I think you'll do well tonight Shaun     for me, it's on a knife-edge....still one crumb of comfort is that I've known in these scenarios to see say Chippenham with a cold frontal rain, and here 10 miles north east with an extra 100m of elevation seeing heavy settling snow

 

 

Not really , considering it's a stalling front , so yes if your the west or South side of the front , if your East of North with southerly winds better southeasterly but you should be fine , it's more about the due points in the centre of the low that would ruin it I think . A few people are saying the low is marginally South than what the compturers predict but wel have to wait and see . If it is then 50 miles makes all the difference for the likes of Wiltshire and Oxfordshire .

 

One thing is certain, you'll both do better than my location. If we get any type of PPN that's snow, It will be a miracle of science.

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Not really , considering it's a stalling front , so yes if your the west or South side of the front , if your East of North with southerly winds better southeasterly but you should be fine , it's more about the due points in the centre of the low that would ruin it I think . A few people are saying the low is marginally South than what the compturers predict but wel have to wait and see . If it is then 50 miles makes all the difference for the likes of Wiltshire and Oxfordshire .

 

Stalling is fine if you get undercut. A steady slow relentless push like this is pretty hopeless because by the time the ppn sets in the cloud cover is at least an hour ahead of it (more like three or four at this rate) with concomitant upper air temp rising and dew points lifting.

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well,something is falling out of the sky now, but I can't really work out what it is as it's so fine.....definitely not drizzle, and not snow flakes.....best described as sleety snizzle


What's your elevation do you no ?
I'm 192 meters I think ! Anything above 100 to the north side of the front should be good , it's interesting because this ones so unpredictable , the euro4 has handled it very badly and really wouldn't be surprised to see changes on the 12z , I think the changes will only be one way and that's south . No way is this front getting into northern England . We can see the front sliding down the west side of the county and it looks like it's got 2 cores on it . And think its the southern core that's gonna flourish once it mixes with slightly warmer air and water ! Be great to see a southward movement on it !

about 150m

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Stalling is fine if you get undercut. A steady slow relentless push like this is pretty hopeless because by the time the ppn sets in the cloud cover is at least an hour ahead of it (more like three or four at this rate) with concomitant upper air temp rising and dew points lifting.

But it's not a relentless push its getting to the mids , stalling and eventually moving south again . All to play for

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On the Costa del South Coast:

Temp: 3.8c (Actually falling)

DP 0.9c

Wind ESE 10mph

 

After a beautiful Sunny, white frosty start, all is now grey and cold.

 

EDIT: Temp 3.7 now... Think I left my freezer open again.

You sure?

It's says 5 degrees on my car and internet

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You sure?

It's says 5 degrees on my car and internet

 

I was an hour ago haha! Its now rocketed to 5.2c, Winds from the South.

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What's your elevation do you no ?

I'm 192 meters I think ! Anything above 100 to the north side of the front should be good , it's interesting because this ones so unpredictable , the euro4 has handled it very badly and really wouldn't be surprised to see changes on the 12z , I think the changes will only be one way and that's south . No way is this front getting into northern England . We can see the front sliding down the west side of the county and it looks like it's got 2 cores on it . And think its the southern core that's gonna flourish once it mixes with slightly warmer air and water ! Be great to see a southward movement on it !

For anyone curious about their height above sea level, here's a great site to find out. It's all OS maps so should be accurate.

 

http://www.streetmap.co.uk/

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Is there such a saying as "it's cold enough to snow", cause it ain;t half cold here in Gloucester. :cold: :cold: :cold: :cold: :cold:

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I've used a tape measure to get mine.. Just a tad under 10 metres.

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For anyone curious about their height above sea level, here's a great site to find out. It's all OS maps so should be accurate.

 

http://www.streetmap.co.uk/

 

Do you just type in your postcode?

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What's your elevation do you no ?

I'm 192 meters I think ! Anything above 100 to the north side of the front should be good , it's interesting because this ones so unpredictable , the euro4 has handled it very badly and really wouldn't be surprised to see changes on the 12z , I think the changes will only be one way and that's south . No way is this front getting into northern England . We can see the front sliding down the west side of the county and it looks like it's got 2 cores on it . And think its the southern core that's gonna flourish once it mixes with slightly warmer air and water ! Be great to see a southward movement on it !

In your view, how for North do you think this front will go - before heading back south?

 

Thanks

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Do you just type in your postcode?

Postcode or village/town name.

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I've used a tape measure to get mine.. Just a tad under 10 metres.

 

Don't you'll start AJ off with his jokes about his wife again.  :acute: AT up to 1.7c now with slightly unfavourable dew point readings. Touch and go for those residing in NE of this regional and with elevation on their side. I haven't got a clue as to what our Norfolk members might get though.  :crazy:

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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Looking at the radar this looks like quite a complex system, with ppn moving in all kinds of directions.

I had to drive to Dorchester and back earlier and it rained all the way, mostly light but with a few heavier bursts. Nothing remotely wintry.

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Rain/sleet/snow mix just started here temps have been at around 3.5 since about 12 but have now dropped to 2.6 in the last 30 min. DP -0.9

I wasn't expecting anything but rain so nice to see. Don't know if it will last though!

 

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