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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>


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Meagre hopes it is then, but best watch DPs and WBFLs and the intensity of the precipitation as things don't always go as expected.  :D

 

Temperature and dew point   is marginal but good enough so your correct maybe if some decent ppn intensity gets going later it might change.. :fool:

 

2.0c dew point -1c

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2.5c AT, 1.6c DP.

 

Impressive to think that Karlos is colder than me, even though situated by the coast. Forecast 850s at this time predicted to be -4. Darn close call but elevation should certainly help. A streamer of sorts setting up West of Bristol through Bristol Channel as I type.

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Can't see too many hard frosts this week due to cloud cover. Plenty of dampness due to rain and some sunny spells, coldish days but nothing that cold. 4-5 degrees seems a normal temp for middle of Jan, slightly below average. Other areas of the UK will see some more snowfall, but for our area, Bristol surrounding, pretty much run of the mill cold winter pattern ahead. Much more wintry over elevation, but wet to low levels with the odd bit of wintryness mixed in. At the end of the day it's just not forecast to be cold enough for our area, simple as that.

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Can't see too many hard frosts this week due to cloud cover. Plenty of dampness due to rain and some sunny spells, coldish days but nothing that cold. 4-5 degrees seems a normal temp for middle of Jan, slightly below average. Other areas of the UK will see some more snowfall, but for our area, Bristol surrounding, pretty much run of the mill cold winter pattern ahead. Much more wintry over elevation, but wet to low levels with the odd bit of wintryness mixed in. At the end of the day it's just not forecast to be cold enough for our area, simple as that.

 

A reasonable account of how things are looking I agree, more especially as a forecast from your locale. Others can expect broadly similar synoptics, but... due to day to day variables, any specific details over snow probabilities and distribution, I would not make things as simplistic as you currently show. We've all been through these situations before and transient events can soon turn in our favour, as equally they can go the other way. In fairness, it might be a lack of precipitation outside and inside the dates I mention which could be the real issue. As ever time will tell and we'll all be watching the updates I'm sure.

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A reasonable account of how things are looking I agree, more especially as a forecast from your locale. Others can expect broadly similar synoptics, but... due to day to day variables, any specific details over snow probabilities and distribution, I would not make things as simplistic as you currently show. We've all been through these situations before and transient events can soon turn in our favour, as equally they can go the other way. In fairness, it might be a lack of precipitation outside and inside the dates I mention which could be the real issue. As ever time will tell and we'll all be watching the updates I'm sure.

Agreed. I will post my high and low temps next Saturday from the next 7 days to gauge (imby) the period purely on temperature. Disregarding what falls from the sky, temperature is the key for me whether it's a cold spell or a cooler period.

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Agreed. I will post my high and low temps next Saturday from the next 7 days to gauge (imby) the period purely on temperature. Disregarding what falls from the sky, temperature is the key for me whether it's a cold spell or a cooler period.

 

Dew point is also important you can get temps of 2-3C and still have snow falling if the humidity is low enough.

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2.5c AT, 1.6c DP.

 

Impressive to think that Karlos is colder than me, even though situated by the coast. Forecast 850s at this time predicted to be -4. Darn close call but elevation should certainly help. A streamer of sorts setting up West of Bristol through Bristol Channel as I type.

Full quote this tweet I me.

Currently 1.5C with DP -0.1C.

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2.5c AT, 1.6c DP.

 

Impressive to think that Karlos is colder than me, even though situated by the coast. Forecast 850s at this time predicted to be -4. Darn close call but elevation should certainly help. A streamer of sorts setting up West of Bristol through Bristol Channel as I type.

Yes it is but I think cloud cover is less here. Now at 1.4C dp 1.1C.

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Dew point is also important you can get temps of 2-3C and still have snow falling if the humidity is low enough.

Humidity is the problem for me, sitting at 97%, 1 even 2c is no good.

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Dew point is also important you can get temps of 2-3C and still have snow falling if the humidity is low enough.

I remember hearing on a bbc forecast many years ago that snow can fall upto an air temp of 4c, depending on other factors etc.

Light rain here at the moment.

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Dew point is also important you can get temps of 2-3C and still have snow falling if the humidity is low enough.

Yes..but the snow won't settle with temps above freezing. U just get horrid wet snow and lots of puddles.

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