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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>


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Must have been incredibly marginal last night. Went down to 0.4C yet there's hardly anything to show for it - rather disappointing in all. I'm wondering if it may be worth heading to the Mendips to actually see some snow. Is there a good covering there?

My temp in Yatton did not get below 1.9. Bang on as forecast. Therefore no snow was expected. I have noticed your temp always seems to much lower....something wrong with your thermo?

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What a beauty!   By far the best chart of the Winter, very much deserving of an OMG for this regional.      You couldn't make it up, just remember as a NWP model chart at t+84 hours, it is jus

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Might go for a drive and see if the Mendips look white, can see them from the end of the village.

Blimey, that's a bit high isn't it MPG? Which part of Yatton are you in? It's still 01.4C here at the moment.

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Just taken these....not a lot but it is snow and it does look pretty. It's easing off now but was beginning to give a covering on the road.

post-6280-0-62286700-1421227202_thumb.jp

post-6280-0-76934200-1421227251_thumb.jp

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Yes, looking good at Princetown and hopefully more excitement in the next week. I know we're all busy with the here and now, but what are peoples thoughts on the forecasted winds for tomorrow?

Thats just it we all got excited over some wet snow, the wind situation tomorrow is quite worrying

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Pretty much as forecast here, I reckon.

Rain/Sleet/Snow mix as the bands of showers passed through. The wind was really howling as the showers went through and I could see the Dorset lightning in the distance at 10ish, last night.

 

Got to walk through some falling wet snow between 7:30 and 8am this morning.
If you squint, you can see the slightest of dustings at the top of Clearbury, which is >100m.

 

post-7340-0-03350500-1421227779_thumb.jp


Rain here now @ 3C.

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Onwards and upwards! Severe gales to look forward to, here. Tempted to venture down to a headland for some wind readings tonight but it gets troublesome when it's dark.

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Thats just it we all got excited over some wet snow, the wind situation tomorrow is quite worrying

Actually, I'm not sure the winds will be that bad, I don't think tonight's storm would even get in the top 5 for last year, might squeeze out a 70mph on the south-west coast or around IOW, but that's nothing desperate for winter. All overnight too. The thunder and lightning from last night probably more dramatic here. See chart below; second brown shade is 110km (70mph ish) (... bye bye old GFS!)

15-289UK.GIF?14-6

 

The action looks like kicking off properly over the weekend and into next week - more snow opportunities, but I think they have a better chance of being successful simple because there are no forecasted "mild sectors" except in perhaps the far SW - this means the cold air has less work to do to boot out the mild air before snow can fall!

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Sunday onwards (and possibly for a week) looks promising (just popped into the Mad Discussion thread).

Possible chances of sliding lows that could produce decent snow, as long as they align to our West slightly.

Certainly looks like cold is pretty much nailed on for later in the w/e and into next week.

Latest 06z GFS seems to be throwing up some interesting scenarios for next week, plus

Read Ian F's post in the Mad disc thread - seems to hint at a forecasting 'challenge' for Meto into next week.

Despite today's/tomorrow's less cold blip it seems that Winter 2015 has just begun.

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Hi, what was your minimum temperature last night?Thanks.

 

-0.2 it hovered around the freezing mark which allowed a ground frost to aid what fell I guess.

 

currently 1.6c now with a slow thaw.

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-0.2 it hovered around the freezing mark which allowed a ground frost to aid what fell I guess.

 

currently 1.6c now with a slow thaw.

Thanks. Sorry another question, whats your height above sea level?

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Well having been to the Mendips and back, I was not disappointed. Picture postcard scenes up above Burrington. 03.7C here in Yatton now but was hovering just above zero up there. Pictures to follow.

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Thanks. Sorry another question, whats your height above sea level?

 

 over 250m rising to close the 290m behind. Main village is all around 220 - 250m

 

I always climb up top of Mendip golf coarse if its really marginal :)  Or beacon batch wood is another nice place

 

We actually have snow freezing in the shaded parts still with a ground frost but I expect it to start melting properly soon as warmer air arrives.

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So will the south West get in on the action regarding these slider lp's forecast for early next week or will we be on the wrong side, time to place your bets lol

Edited by Smartie
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So will the south West get in on the action regarding these slider lp's forecast for early next week or will we be on the wrong side, time to place your bets lol

 

Thing that concerns me with those is they often end up with m4 north scenarios..

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So will the south West get in on the action regarding these slider lp's forecast for early next week or will we be on the wrong side, time to place your bets lol

I can't answer for everybody but it'll most probably be rain here. It takes a special set of synoptics for snow- even Dec 2010 turned in to a disaster! :laugh:

On a side note, it seems that the NMM performed better than the Euro4 for showing shower distribution. I'd go as far to say, the Euro4 went way over the top!

I would have loved to have seen MOGREPS :good:

Edited by Mapantz
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 over 250m rising to close the 290m behind. Main village is all around 230 - 260m

 

I always climb up top of Mendip golf coarse if its really marginal :)  Or beacon batch wood is another nice place

 

We actually have snow freezing in the shaded parts still with a ground frost but I expect it to start melting properly soon as warmer air arrives.

Thanks for the information. So even at your location the temperature didn't drop that significantly.

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Thanks for the information. So even at your location the temperature didn't drop that significantly.

 

No still very marginal, problem is the air just isn't that cold and it was coming off a warm sea. Also we would have done much better if it wasn't just showers.

 

My met office app is now showing snow Thursday and heavy snow Friday Saturday and Sunday but I'll hold my breath as it looked like snowmagedon on my app for last night and this morning..

 

If you want a decent idea of the Mendip forecast on met office app add in location 'green ore' which is fairly central and has modest elevation of 200m.

Edited by Nights King
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It looks like a Summer's day outside - sun shining, pretty much clear blue skies - although I think the neighbours would think I'm a bit tapped if I went out in shorts. :/

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So will the south West get in on the action regarding these slider lp's forecast for early next week or will we be on the wrong side, time to place your bets lol

My bet goes for, cold wet rain, with 2 mcflurries as the front chase off into Europe.

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Thing that concerns me with those is they often end up with m4 north scenarios..

I'm no expert but for tthese sliders to work do we need some proper cold air already in situ. It's cold out but not proper cold.

Sliders / channel lows are tough to get the right track. Always too far north or south in recent.......well as long as I can remember.

Anyway plenty of snow potential after tonight for the moors (above 300 metres) so plenty of walking this weekend!

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