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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


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Thanks for that, i did use that during the recent storm in scotland but it didnt seem very accurate, are those graphics based on ukmo with human input ?

 

This is the predicted wind gusts so it will only be as accurate as the forecast. I do not know for certain but I assume these figures are based on human input and will be from a range of models, I do not believe the Met Office always stick to there own ukmo model. If anyone here knows more maybe they can clarify. For actual wind speeds that are occurring I use this site:

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

Not sure on its accuracy though.

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With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

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In a word no at least I very much doubt it but 70mph isn't out of the question judging by some of the charts. Its squalling up out there now, must be pushing 50, Hi everyone I'm new here. Well kind of not but I forgot my old accounts signing in details its been so long since I last come on here, I was Knightrider lol

Welcome back! I'm just up the road from you in South Ockendon.

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Regarding the UKMET I don't think they use the GFS model suite much (if at all) so don't expect them to issue warnings based on GFS monster lows 4/5 days away. They use ECM, their own UKMO model and they have a whole host of in-house models & ensembles forecasting systems that we don't get to see. 

 

The ECM & UKMO both do show a significant depression affecting the UK next week but it is not as severe as the GFS(P). 

 

Few days to go yet so nothing can be discounted at this stage. The Met will be watching developments closely and will issue warnings accordingly, they are very good in these situations when forecasting cyclogenesis/wind storms. 

Edited by Liam J
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Welcome back! I'm just up the road from you in South Ockendon.

It'll be interesting to see how things develop for us then Meggy. Interestingly I typed in Upminster for Netweather's local forecast and the graph showed winds peaking on Wednesday evening here with the pressure gradient dropping to 990mb (so I suspect we are a fair way from the LP centre and the strongest of the winds) but it still suggested gusts in the region of 60mph.

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Looking at the wind gusts GFS P is showing I wouldn't be surprised if the met issue early warnings tomorrow given that large parts of England and Wales could be in the firing line

 

ukgust.pngukgust.pngukgust.pngukgust.pngukgust.png

 

 

Some exceptionally strong wind gusts for some highly populated areas, could even warrant a red warning for some parts

 

If this was to come to fruition I think I'll immigrate lol :bomb: 70mph+ inland gusts for inland areas across the SE including London on this and 90+ out in the North-Sea and in The Channel. :help:

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12z's will be coming out soon, wonder how they'll handle the storm next week?! Also Monday morning is of concern for the north. Exciting/worrying times ahead depending on personal viewpoint! 

 

 

 

Edited by Liam J
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That's because the winds will be dying down by Thursday daytime, most of the strongest winds will be overnight Wednesday into Thursday!

Flicked through the charts and I picked the strongest wind gust chart shown for Wed/Thurs. 

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Flicked through the charts and I picked the strongest wind gust chart shown for Wed/Thurs. 

Hmmm... depends on what Chart/Graph you read I suppose, the Netweather graph and GFS charts are going for 60 to 90mph winds from around 9pm Wednesday through until the early hours of Thursday before easing off.

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Hmmm... depends on what Chart/Graph you read I suppose, the Netweather graph and GFS charts are going for 60 to 90mph winds from around 9pm Wednesday through until the early hours of Thursday before easing off.

Yes, the GFS has the most extreme evolution.

Edited by Liam J
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Flicked through the charts and I picked the strongest wind gust chart shown for Wed/Thurs. 

 

Guess it depends on location, on the South Coast it's showing higher gusts midnight and 0300, but still a few days out and many changes to come no doubt.

Edited by Sussex Jules
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Yes, the GFS has the most extreme evolution. 

I don't think it'll be as severe as the GFS is making out, because supposedly the upper level Jetstream is loosing some of it's potency therefore there'll be less energy stirring up any LP systems heading our way although if a big storm was to develop because the upper level winds wouldn't be as strong the ground level winds could last for longer!

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Guess it depends on location, on the South Coast it's showing higher gusts midnight and 0300, but still a few days out and many changes to come no doubt.

Many more twists and turns to come likely! Lets see what the 12z runs bring...

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Centre of the storm tracking towards Scotland with strongest winds but much of the UK would experience gales or severe gales sweeping across the country, extremely windy for the north. 

 

post-9615-0-13193400-1420905750_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-66351400-1420905835_thumb.pn

 

Much the same track on the GFS(P)

 

post-9615-0-91135100-1420906011_thumb.pn

 

 

Edited by Liam J
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Yes the UKMO is 30mb less deep than both GFS models at 96hrs! big difference... GFS over doing it most likely, we await the ECM!

 

Could be but the UKMO had a 950mb low on it's 0Z run, so not the greatest consistency there. ECM is definitely the one to watch!

 

Edit :

 

Just noticed the UKMO has a 954mb low at 120, so it would have bombed crossing IR+UK between 96 and 120 on a more southerly track. Interesting.

 

U120-21UK_srj7.GIF

Edited by radiohead
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Could be but the UKMO had a 950mb low on it's 0Z run, so not the greatest consistency there. ECM is definitely the one to watch!

Indeed, the GFS models have been the most consistent over the last few days. ECM 00z also had a 955mb low. 

Edited by Liam J
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First set of 12z runs are out,

 

GME - Takes a more Southerly route than most of the other models kind of similar to the 12z UKMO. It ends up over the South East of Scotland giving off gales to severe gales across Wales and England.

 

post-6686-0-61071500-1420906118_thumb.pn

 

Old GFS Model - Different from the 06z run from earlier today but very similar to the 00z run from last night just this time its a bit deeper. It has the storm over NW of Ireland.

 

post-6686-0-67123800-1420906263_thumb.pn

 

It shows gusts between 70 to 80mph over Ireland and parts of Scotland and these strong gusty winds move across England and Wales later on from 60 to 80mph.

 

post-6686-0-29677200-1420906381_thumb.pn post-6686-0-37520400-1420906382_thumb.pn post-6686-0-98363800-1420906382_thumb.pn

 

New GFS Model - It positions the storm in the exact same area to the older GFS model but has it a bit deeper.

 

post-6686-0-73772300-1420906530_thumb.pn

 

It also shows the same type of strong winds as well.

 

post-6686-0-55226300-1420906642_thumb.pn

 

UKMO - Its like the GME a bit more Southerly and places the storm over Northern England which would give very strong wind speeds for Wales and England.

 

post-6686-0-06711500-1420906750_thumb.gi

 

Overall so far the GFS models seem keen on placing it to the NW of Ireland giving strong winds for a lot of the UK. The GME and UKMO place it a bit more South and slightly weaker but still capable of giving high gusts for England and Wales.

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