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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


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I would expect to see some stations possibly recording gusts around 80mph as the front moves through, then again as the low centre tracks towards the NW. We shall see... 24hrs and the weather will be going rapidly downhill.

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With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

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My area/Exeter tends to do quite well from gales when the wind is coming up from the south so here's hoping for a great gale tomorrow evening as the cold front moves through.

 

Obviously didn't want anyone to get hurt but was hoping for an epic storm like a couple of the ones we had last year.  But going by the GFS and GFSP it has down graded slightly on each run, should still see maybe 65mph gusts or maybe even over in Exeter....I've read on here it is a complex system and tomorrow mornings run will be clearer, I've a feeling they are underplaying the potential strengh of the wind.

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Have to say I'm proper confused now.

 

The latest local & national BBC forecast looked like a significant downgrade for the south (including South Wales). The main thrust being felt over Norhern Ireland & South West Scotland with isobars looking not too bothersome away from these areas.

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Here's my latest synoptic outlook - focusing on risk of snow this evening, overnight and Wednesday morning. Then a rapidly deepening low, storm Rachel, bringing severe gales and heavy rain across the UK Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6400;sess=

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My area/Exeter tends to do quite well from gales when the wind is coming up from the south so here's hoping for a great gale tomorrow evening as the cold front moves through.

 

Obviously didn't want anyone to get hurt but was hoping for an epic storm like a couple of the ones we had last year.  But going by the GFS and GFSP it has down graded slightly on each run, should still see maybe 65mph gusts or maybe even over in Exeter....I've read on here it is a complex system and tomorrow mornings run will be clearer, I've a feeling they are underplaying the potential strengh of the wind.

 

I've flicked through the 12z GFS ensembles and approx. 60% of them are more severe than the op itself. A lot of them are further S with the core of the strongest winds too, with more of the Midlands in the firing line along with N England.

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Hello old friend! A very interesting system this,on face value inland gusts of 60mph and coastal 70mph is the sort of winter storm we see a couple of times most winters,the difference here is it is rapidly deepening still as it rushes in to the NW of Ireland.As we know many lows spawning these sorts of winds are filling as they cross our shores,therefore a 943mb system throwing a cold front East on Wednesday night has the POTENTIAL to inflict something stronger locally than 60 or 70mph.

Hi mate! Hope you are well..... noticed you werent around much on Met Monkey.......

 

I know i should be getting excited about these storms but when you have kids who are sleeping in your room because they are scared of the scaffolding noise....its not so much fun! Any scaffolding experts out there?? will bmy roof get blown off in 70mph gusts?? :cc_confused: :cc_confused: :cc_confused:

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Hi mate! Hope you are well..... noticed you werent around much on Met Monkey.......

 

I know i should be getting excited about these storms but when you have kids who are sleeping in your room because they are scared of the scaffolding noise....its not so much fun! Any scaffolding experts out there?? will bmy roof get blown off in 70mph gusts?? :cc_confused: :cc_confused: :cc_confused:

got scaffolding up too ,should be ok !!..
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Hi mate! Hope you are well..... noticed you werent around much on Met Monkey.......

 

I know i should be getting excited about these storms but when you have kids who are sleeping in your room because they are scared of the scaffolding noise....its not so much fun! Any scaffolding experts out there?? will bmy roof get blown off in 70mph gusts?? :cc_confused: :cc_confused: :cc_confused:

I would think scaffolding should stand up to 70mph gusting if they did a good job putting it up! I suppose a gust of that speed has the potential to lift scaffold boards....
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WOW a tornado in London?...what will mother nature throw at us next?  With warnings for; wind, rain, snow and ice all in force at once the only thing missing I guess is flying meatballs lol :rofl:  Regarding the approaching storm apparently they've given it a name Emily, you kind of know it's going to be a noteworthy storm when they start giving it a title!

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Updated Met wind gust map is now showing gusts around 75mph here late Thursday morning through to early afternoon, and they are usually a bit conservative with gust speeds. Interesting. Seems the GFSP was nearly spot on with this event even days away! Shame it hasn't updated since the 6z, it's meant to go live tomorrow. 

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Updated Met wind gust map is now showing gusts around 75mph here late Thursday morning through to early afternoon, and they are usually a bit conservative with gust speeds. Interesting. Seems the GFSP was nearly spot on with this event even days away! Shame it hasn't updated since the 6z, it's meant to go live tomorrow. 

Usually gusts end up being about 5 to 10mph stronger then the Met predictions so if it's indicating 75mph where you are expect something nearer 80+ it's saying 58mph for where I am so I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the mid 60's.

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Some thunderstorms off the west coast of Wales and a few strikes elsewhere across the UK. A lucky few could get to see some thundersnow tonight I feel. Oh if only my area was in with a chance  :whistling: 

 

Looks like widespread 60mph+ gusts across a wide swathe of the country tomorrow night, especially just around a cold front sweeping SE and then some even stronger winds to the south of the low pressure system - wherever that positions itself. 

 

After that more snow and ice possibilities. An interesting period of weather coming up.

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WOW a tornado in London?...what will mother nature throw at us next?  With warnings for; wind, rain, snow and ice all in force at once the only thing missing I guess is flying meatballs lol :rofl:  Regarding the approaching storm apparently they've given it a name Emily, you kind of know it's going to be a noteworthy storm when they start giving it a title!

I thought they had christened the impending storm 'Rachel'?|

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