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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


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With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

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I've seen enough now not to worry about this down this way. 

 

Lost count of the number of times a chart has offered up 70-80 Mph gusts 3 or 4 days before an ''event'' only for it to be watered down run after run in the days leading up, ending up with something that isn't even out of the ordinary. 

 

So IMBY and I am only talking from experience of this particular part of the world (S Coast from lets say Bognor through to Hastings) and the SE Chunk of the UK covering Sussex, Surrey, Kent and London ...

 

I very much doubt that anywhere in that area will see a gust of more than 70 Mph . 

 

I was running along the coast here on Saturday morning and I can tell you that it was gusting a good 65 Mph , there was no warning for that and I can't see this being any worse. 

 

It's laughable sometimes. 

 

Just my take on it and before anyone starts posting charts, I care not what charts say, it's what you experience on the ground that matters, I'm not going to experience a computer chart am I ?

 

It's Northern Ireland,  NW England , SW England and Scotland that are going to get the brunt of this (as per usual)... Not often you'll see a 943 Mb Fax chart Low.

 

The strongest winds in the South are only going to be for a period of a few hours as well and overnight so most people won't even know it's happened. 

 

fax48s_gif_1.gif

I agree with most of what you say here EML,my one proviso on this occasion would be that the storm is a rapidly deepening feature as it hits our shores at midnight Thursday (943mb) on the fax charts.This historicaly has given winds speeds some added bite,so for once i am half expecting somthing more dramatic gust wise.On so many occasions 70mph gusts are the the result of a filling low as it crosses the UK,but this baby certainly has some far more interesting ingrediants.
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I agree with most of what you say here EML,my one proviso on this occasion would be that the storm is a rapidly deepening feature as it hits our shores at midnight Thursday (943mb) on the fax charts.This historicaly has given winds speeds some added bite,so for once i am half expecting somthing more dramatic gust wise.On so many occasions 70mph gusts are the the result of a filling low as it crosses the UK,but this baby certainly has some far more interesting ingrediants.

I agree, very good point, should be interesting for sure

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Met office took the low down to sub 945mb on the latest updated FAX, which is roughly what the GFSP has been showing for many days now. This could be quite interesting, you don't see a 943mb depression very often over the UK, not to be underestimated by any means.

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The gust speeds the MO haven't changed for my location. 66mph is still more than a lot of wind events last year. 70mph will be breached, probably 80mph as well.

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Yep, northern ireland to see the strongest gusts, i still think there is a possibility that some people in the south will be posting "what was all the fuss about" on thursday morning. Me likely to be one of them. :rofl:

Edited by mickeyb44
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I can't believe people are writing this off already! Even the professionals arent confident yet, they're barely prepared to give anything anyway on most broadcasts I've seen. I'm expecting this

Storm to be pretty severe, especially imby but even inland.

Edited by Nick123
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Im not writing it off :) , i hope im really very wrong and get eggs thrown at my face but i just have a feeling imby and surrounding areas might only end up seeing 50 mph. And that will not be enough to float my boat, i was never expecting 1987 but hoped for gusts of 80-90 mph, in my back yard or maybe close by.

Edited by mickeyb44
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Wasn't having a go mate, just I reckon all the background signals are pointing to something quite severe here I don't think we should underestimate it until we see a significant downgrade. Sure run by run it will change, but we should wait till nearer the time before we judge it as 'just another winter storm'

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I wouldn't bet against an amber warning Mickey. Maybe more especially places on the Coast but maybe even places more inland.

Maybe more likely for an Amber is Northern Ireland based on latest outputs.

Edited by Nick123
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The storm will do what ever it wants to do, you can not totally predict mother nature and what she chooses to throw at the UK. I am sure the appropriate warnings for ALL areas will go out when needed. I live south facing on the IOW, we can get it pretty bad here, when the storm arrives and passes only then we shall see the full impact of what she has delivered to our shores.

Edited by Cyclonic
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15011406_1306.gif

 

Erm...

Funny you should say that, from a glistening start, the sky has gone that dull grey colour in the last half hour and I think it could start precipitating shortly, of what variety I am not sure yet.

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Im hoping on the cheif forecasters latest comment:

"The exact track of this system is still open to some uncertainty, as is the location of the strongest windsand it is likely that this warning will be reviewed in the coming days to fine tune the areas at risk from the impacts"
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