Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 904
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

Posted Images

GFSP - Looks like there'll be two zones of severe winds with this system. The first swathe accompanying the cold front with severe gale to storm force southerly winds sweeping across the UK with gusts in excess of 80mph perhaps more around exposed coasts, an isolated 90mph somewhere perhaps? Up to 70mph inland in some locations. Then the second swathe will come in around the southern flank of the storm with gusts of 70-80mph+ over parts of Ireland and NW UK. 


That's one hell of a storm on the GFS(P). But it's so different to the ECMWF that I just can't take it seriously.

Yes, but the consistency is something of note, very bullish. Even something in between the two would be severe. 

Edited by Liam J
Link to post
Share on other sites

That's one hell of a storm on the GFS(P). But it's so different to the ECMWF that I just can't take it seriously.

Yes ECM is almost 20mb 'fuller' at midnight Wed.

 

post-4523-0-53469200-1421015080_thumb.pn

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Tomorrow morning looks quite gusty to begin with; widespread 50mph gusts in England, 60mph in Scotland and 70mph in the far North of Scotland.

post-17472-0-45556500-1421014714_thumb.jpost-17472-0-06199900-1421014723_thumb.j

The windstorm on Thursday may be the last of the season (until the end of January) before hopefully some decent lasting snow falls.

Link to post
Share on other sites

GFSP - Looks like there'll be two zones of severe winds with this system. The first swathe accompanying the cold front with severe gale to storm force southerly winds sweeping across the UK with gusts in excess of 80mph perhaps more around exposed coasts, an isolated 90mph somewhere perhaps? Up to 70mph inland in some locations. Then the second swathe will come in around the southern flank of the storm with gusts of 70-80mph+ over parts of Ireland and NW UK. 

Yes, but the consistency is something of note, very bullish. Even something in between the two would be severe. 

 

The GFSP was the most bullish with the last storm, keeping intensity while other models reduced strength on the day before. I think events in the far north validated the parallel on that occasion - will it be similar this coming storm?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFSP was the most bullish with the last storm, keeping intensity while other models reduced strength on the day before. I think events in the far north validated the parallel on that occasion - will it be similar this coming storm?

We'll find out in the next couple of days, we are only 3 days away from this system making landfall, praise for the new GFSP model if it's got this one right, picked it up days ago. And kept it more or less the same ever since with only slight variations run to run unlike some of the other models. 

Edited by Liam J
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFSP was the most bullish with the last storm, keeping intensity while other models reduced strength on the day before. I think events in the far north validated the parallel on that occasion - will it be similar this coming storm?

 

Yep, in that case though the ECM was also showing a very strong low, whereas here the GFS(P) and ECM are quite different.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Well. Weds night looks very interesting now!!!

 

I wonder what the papers will go with this time round?

 

Looks like easy gusts of 70/80mph inland in exposed areas.. the south coast... wow... Gonna need to weld the hatches shut.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Well. Weds night looks very interesting now!!!

 

I wonder what the papers will go with this time round?

 

Looks like easy gusts of 70/80mph inland in exposed areas.. the south coast... wow... Gonna need to weld the hatches shut.

as long as you haven't got 90 thousand tons of iron ore in there you should be ok !!!..
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite a windy night out there currently, just had a gust very loud! 32mph.- Almost double that figure for Weds night episode. Could be rather dangerous that one.

Edited by Mark N
Link to post
Share on other sites

Tonight's storm is strange, though that Scotland was getting the worst of it, however wales has been having much higher gust consistently. In the last hour mean winds have been 54 and gusting at 81, according to XC weather. http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

It's been in the 70's for gusts before this.

It's very stop start here, Wednesday/Thursday's storm still looks bad/good depending on whether you like storms or not. Nice link, will come in handy midweek. :smile: Hope you miss the worst of it.

Edited by lassie23
Link to post
Share on other sites

i certainly have Liam, i can't see anywhere that wouldn't see 70mph gusts at some point. the coasts especially are going to get battered!

A worrying thought that, are you suggesting that even London and the surrounding Counties could see 70mph gusts?

Link to post
Share on other sites

A major downgrade to Wednesday, Thursday Thursday is the major downgrade with the strongest winds clearing by six and unlike previous days the wind not maintaining 60 to 70 mph gusts. The direction of the wind and the subsequent downgrade at the moment means we will probably not even notice it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Downgrade yes but I wouldn't call it a major downgrade? That's quite misleading IMO. Wind gusts still look concerning, 75mph shown sweeping in from the west with exposure, 60mph+ inland. 90mph coming into Ireland. Not much of a downgrade, fluctuations are bound to occur as we are still a few days away. 

 

GFSP

post-9615-0-76369400-1421045046_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-43613200-1421045053_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-22510600-1421045061_thumb.pn

 

ECM would also produce some stormy conditions. 

post-9615-0-80136500-1421045206_thumb.gi

 

JMA also stormy. 

 

post-9615-0-92109000-1421045518_thumb.gipost-9615-0-48230500-1421045526_thumb.gi

Edited by Liam J
  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...