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I have seen a forecast back n September pinpointing this period exactly to 8-12 as ferocious storms for Scotland and Northern Ireland 

 

 

BFTP

Interesting but this time of the year is often stormy. Stopped clock right twice a day springs to mind. 

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Righty-Ho. This can't pass without comment. Below follow just a random snapshot of detailed medium range briefings from Ops Centre made in first days of Jan, looking towards what was then the 10-15d

Je suis charlie

A bit of clarity re EC Monthly prognosis and expectations further ahead. The broad scheme of things sees a shift in balance re lows to NW becoming more aligned further away to the north from the UK, u

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Hi Mucka, sure: take your point, but as it stands we expect the fast frontal (and post-frontal shower) movement to help prevent anything too troubling at lower levels (1-3cm typically for N Wales/N England) but 5-10cm over uplands which, combined with the winds, could indeed be a pain (trans-Pennines for example). E4 offers higher totals but these are considered overdone, because that model is prone to synthesising overly-large showers (a known bias). Cheers.

hopefully we get some coming through the cheshire gap giving a few cms across the midlands!! Uppers definitely look cold enough!!
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Hi Mucka, sure: take your point, but as it stands we expect the fast frontal (and post-frontal shower) movement to help prevent anything too troubling at lower levels (1-3cm typically for N Wales/N England) but 5-10cm over uplands which, combined with the winds, could indeed be a pain (trans-Pennines for example). E4 offers higher totals but these are considered overdone, because that model is prone to synthesising overly-large showers (a known bias). Cheers.

 

Yes understood.

I was just getting across that any snow event will likely take precedence over the wind as far as troublesome weather conditions are concerned for much of northern England, especially anywhere West facing with a little elevation. Sheffield may benefit from the protection the penines will offer this time around - what do you think? It is of particular interest to me because I have Sister who lives there.

Sometimes the regional dynamic can get lost in the National picture I guess.

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I can assure you it has been discussed and remains under close scrutiny; further upgrade may yet occur. It's such a key weather event this winter (the windiest period so far), with prospect as you rightly say of 100(+)mph gusts and clear sting jet potential (more especially with the first feature Thurs night). The second storm brings a wider swathe of 50+kt gusts across a broader area of the UK. Some here have focused on snow for Sat, which self-evidently is almost by-the-by in terms of core emphasis; much of the ground will be wet from previous low passage, limiting low-level accumulation anyway but it's one broadly for northern areas in any case. For sure, bothersome snow over higher ground early Sat with blizzards possible, but irrelevant in the south versus the blustery set-up. Either way, as EC-EFI output clearly signposts, this will prove a newsworthily stormy phase in the far north and the warnings remain under detailed review.

 

Hi Fergieweather 

 

I find your comments a fascinating insight and appreciate you taking the time to post on this forum. 

 

I was however a little confused about your comments regarding the snow at low levels not settling on Saturday as a result of previous wet weather. On boxing day we had heavy rain which saturated the ground which then quickly turned to heavy wet snow which left four inches of settled snow in just a couple hours. This then stayed around for around a week. It can happen, although rare for my location, so does this depend on the type of snow that is falling i.e. the more wet variety? 

 

Thanks in advance 

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hopefully we get some coming through the cheshire gap giving a few cms across the midlands!! Uppers definitely look cold enough!!

 

Winds will be too westerly for Stafford and leicester, the showers will be Stockport in a line ESE through Derbyshire

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Hi Fergieweather 

 

I find your comments a fascinating insight and appreciate you taking the time to post on this forum. 

 

I was however a little confused about your comments regarding the snow at low levels not settling on Saturday as a result of previous wet weather. On boxing day we had heavy rain which saturated the ground which then quickly turned to heavy wet snow which left four inches of settled snow in just a couple hours. This then stayed around for around a week. It can happen, although rare for my location, so does this depend on the type of snow that is falling i.e. the more wet variety? 

 

Thanks in advance 

 

Answered by Fergie below.

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Ah - it's more because showers (as opposed to the continuous snow of that earlier event) have rather less chance of settling as readily in any one spot, because they'll whizz through quickly. However in some areas, they'll run through thick and fast, giving modulations in how much snow ultimately sticks, versus how much falls. But with WBFL falling to 200m I think a fair number will see at least some snow at lower levels. Maybe next model runs will enhance the risk enough to warrant ice/snow warnings.

Oh good Lord Mr. Fergusson…. You've just gone and fed the rampers!!! You do know they don't see the word "maybe"...

Anyway, back on topic… The models have toyed with the idea of heights in the MLB or approaching HLB for the months end, and this will wax and wane, so to be honest, the real cold is beyond 240 hrs on the NWP, but because it's showing up, and because fergieweather says it's not ruled out, I'm living in hope. In 2010, the GFS picked up the heights over Greenie, moved them to Scandi and brought them back to Greeny before it came into reliable timeframe, so if it is to happen, expect waxing and waning, but the key here is to look out for consistent modeling of HLB's in our locality.

 

I'm peeling my eyeballs now for the 18z GFS and his P brother.

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I disagree, what is being modelled is an exceptional event even by Scotlands standards, potential gusts in excess of 100mph is not your average winter storm IMO. I am expecting a red warning will be issued at some point tomorrow for this windstorm. 

 

Anyway this thread has been de-railed enough, we have a thread running to discuss the stormy weather over the next few days - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82152-atlantic-storms-january-2015/page-15#entry3108396  :good:

remember the Scots are a hardy race: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bawbag

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The ECM EPS extended has ridge mid Atlantic to Greenland with weak vortex Hudson and the main trough north of the UK orientated south spreading east and connecting to a trough Russia. This ties in roughly with dynamic trop chart which has some WAA east Pacific and mid Atlantic and cold air south east from Greenland into Europe. So surface analysis HP in west Atlantic (weak) and to the south with LP to NW bringing a Pm flow into the UK.  No reason to consider a lengthy cold period is on the cards but just the usual winter fare. That's just my take of course.

Chart courtesy weatherbell

 

 

post-12275-0-64764600-1420669769_thumb.p

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Interesting but this time of the year is often stormy. Stopped clock right twice a day springs to mind. 

Indeed but precisely 8-12?  Not sometime during Jan...anyway we digress. 

 

 

SK...I won't even glance at Madden

 

 BFTP

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GFS P looks quite interesting into FI with the flow consistently due west/northwest/northerly from +192 onwards and cold troughs sinking SE, with northern parts staying in colder air almost throughout:

gfsnh-0-210.png?18 gfsnh-0-240.png?18 gfsnh-0-288.png?18

Broadly consistent with MJO in phase 6/weak phase 7 and also, as far as I can make out, the ECM extended ensembles.

GFS op looks similar synoptically but a bit less cold as far as upper air temperatures go and with the Azores high ridging eastwards towards the end of it:

gfsnh-0-276.png?18 gfsnh-0-360.png?18

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Complete novice here at model reading, only came across this forum a few weeks back. Been hooked ever since!

I am based in Co Tyrone, N Ireland. Well above sea level bbut not sure exact figure. Roughly 200 metres.

Looking at some of the posts saying that Northern and Western areas could get snow later on Saturday. Fergie, do you think this risk extends to N Ireland. Would make sense as I have read of Scotland, N England and N Wales (possibly) being in the firing line.

Again, big thanks for all your v interesting observations here. You've rekindled my first love from school. I had a choice to follow either Geography or Psychology in Uni and chose the later (safer career wise) option. Often wondered where I'd have ended up if I had stuck to earth sciences.

Edited by Sperrin
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Complete novice here at model reading, only came across this forum a few weeks back. Been hooked ever since!

I am based in Co Tyrone, N Ireland. Well above sea level bbut not sure exact figure. Roughly 200 metres.

Looking at some of the posts saying that Northern and Western areas could get snow later on Saturday. Fergie, do you think this risk extends to N Ireland. Would make sense as I have read of Scotland, N England and N Wales (possibly) being in the firing line.

Again, big thanks for all your v interesting observations here. You've rekindled my first love from school. I had a choice to follow either Geography or Psychology in Uni and chose the later (safer career wise) option. Often wondered where I'd have ended up if I had stuck to earth sciences.

 

 

Hello, and welcome to the forum. Good here Innit!  :D

 

I very much doubt Fergie can answer your question at this time of night, he's probably tucked up in bed now, (where we all should be at this time of night to be honest), but our love for all things weather keeps some of us up until ridiculous o'clock constantly checking/looking at resent output etc etc in the search for 'our' beloved favourite snowy weather! ...I really should get a life!!

 

I would very much expect some parts of N.Ireland will see at least 'some' snow during this coming weekend.

It maybe best to check out your local thread for stuff like that.

 

Ireland thread can be found here.... https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80175-ireland-regional-weather-chat/

 

Happy cold/snow hunting.

Edited by SE Blizzards
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