Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

However they also advise on 'fine balance' UK sits in re any blocking to E versus mobility from W... no high confidence yet on which will prevail. 

 

 

 

 

UK to a T and epitomises the problems to get the holy grail many seek

 

BFTP

Edited January 13, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[nick sussex]

Two outputs that deal with the upstream pattern in the USA, for the shortwave that develops moves into the USA plains the SREF 0900hrs and NAM 12hrs are fine.

 

Both amplify the pattern over western Canada, this shortwave is a pointer to what happens to the PV and low heights over Greenland later on.

 

I'm only referring to these because we're in a lull waiting for the main outputs to come out.

 

The SREF only goes to T87 and NAM to T84hrs so these are just the initial stages but at least they look in tune with the earlier major models.

Edited January 13, 2015 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

MO outlook has updated now and it's a BIG UPGRADE.. a big swing towards a wintry or very wintry outlook which is what the Gfs p has been showing since yesterday and the ecm latched on to this morning, increasing risk of snow and severe frosts, doesn't that sound great :- )

[Man With Beard]

A gentle plea before the 12Zs - please resist the temptation to say "job's done" on an easterly if that's what the charts show. We really need the T120-T144 charts of the morning to be replicated in the T72-T96 timeframe. That's just how it is.

[Downpour]

UKMO indicate it is thought to be MJO-related in their latest assessment. They note the risk exciting prospect of a more blocked scenario establishing (as per some DET runs and also EC-EPS members), at least for a while, with enhanced likelihood frost/snow, especially in E re latter. However they also advise on 'fine balance' UK sits in re any blocking to E versus mobility from W... no high confidence yet on which will prevail.

Thanks for the update Ian. Corrected that for you. 

[nick sussex]

No sign of the GFS P, it looks like it might be late coming out. GFS upto T78hrs looks very similar to the earlier 06hrs run.

[IDO]

  RyanMaue

GFS parallel for 12z hasn't arrived. Perhaps it won't w/upgrade tomorrow.

13/01/2015 15:44

[gottolovethisweather]

One final plea from me too in order to help the flow of the thread, try not to jump to futuristic predictions before the run has even completed and as I stated the other day, another word to the wise. In future, can posters please clarify their own post as to whether they are focussing on the near-term or deep FI and whether their own thoughts are biased towards an IMBY perspective.

 

Thanks and let us enjoy this Winter roller-coaster ride to its fullest!

Edited January 13, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[winterof79]

Snow incoming from north on this run.Little feature that was threatening the south being ushered off to Biscay and Portugal

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif

Edited January 13, 2015 by winterof79

[Neilsouth]

Looking good so far, this happened in some pretty decent previous winters, correct?

 

[bluearmy]

Para not coming out - ooh er!

[nick sussex]

Para not coming out - ooh er!

Typical of all the days for it go missing! is it cancelled or just late? It hardly looks good if tomorrow is the official launch and its having problems the night before.

[Cheshire Freeze]

All very messy with heights not scooped up as efficiently to our N at 132. Will there be enough to keep deflecting that jet S? I'm not sure....finely balanced

 

[terrier]

All very messy with heights not scooped up as efficiently to our N at 132. Will there be enough to keep deflecting that jet S? I'm not sure....finely balanced

 

can't we just wait till the full run is out first. Looks fine to me so far.

[Summer Sun]

Typical of all the days for it go missing! is it cancelled or just late? It hardly looks good if tomorrow is the official launch and its having problems the night before.

 

Ryan Maue is suggesting it may not be updating due to the upgrade tomorrow

[warrenb]

Maybe they have already dropped the old GFS and the GFS that is coming out now is the Parallel in its new garb.

[nick sussex]

All very messy with heights not scooped up as efficiently to our N at 132. Will there be enough to keep deflecting that jet S? I'm not sure....finely balanced

 

It looks a bit of a dogs dinner but still cold with that slack flow over the UK, upstream is very similar. Just messy over Europe but a positive sort of mess!

[Paul]

Maybe they have already dropped the old GFS and the GFS that is coming out now is the Parallel in its new garb.

 

No, it's definitely not upgrading until tomorrow. 

[Mucka]

Just in case people thought this was a done deal.

 

[winterof79]

can't we just wait till the full run is out first. Looks fine to me so far.

Crewe is commenting on the run and heights to the north are much shallower than the 6z.That is not to say it is correct.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011306/gfsnh-0-150.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011312/gfsnh-0-144.png?12

[johnholmes]

It looks a bit of a dogs dinner but still cold with that slack flow over the UK, upstream is very similar. Just messy over Europe but a positive sort of mess!

 

not messy at all if you look at the upper flow?

[Bullseye]

GFSP was keen on +AO for sometime but now latest update shows -AO according to Ryan Maue.

[shaky]

Nothing wrong with the current 12z output just as good as the 06z but just lower heights across the north east!!the trend is still there importantly!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Unfortunately this is what happens when you don't get a big enough window to scoop heights N ahead of the advancing LP

 

 

No heights sheered into Scandi and net result is an Atlantic sourced west/northwesterly as opposed to the easterly of the 6z run.

[Mucka]

Don't think it is well rated but a bit a better chart to lift any flagging spirits.

 

 

The parallel picked a bad time to go offline.

Edited January 13, 2015 by Mucka