Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

Recommended Posts

The ECM EPS ext is not singing from a different page to the GEFs. It too has trough to the east slipping south  Doesn't make as much of the Greenland trough  but has ridging to the SW. Ergo LP to NW and HP to SW with westerly to SW cool flow with below temps in north west Europe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Righty-Ho. This can't pass without comment.

Below follow just a random snapshot of detailed medium range briefings from Ops Centre made in first days of Jan, looking towards what was then the 10-15d trend (and now current-short term) period. I will leave it to others to judge if my UKMO colleagues have got things "so massively wrong"....

Written 1 Jan: "The unsettled conditions continue into the trend period but with some evidence of increased meridionality in the upper pattern and so allowing for some greater space between systems and perhaps increased signal for some clearer/colder/showery conditions between."

Written 3 Jan: "Latest f/c output continues to indicate a continuation of the predominantly mobile, and often unsettled, theme, with periods of wet and windy weather interspersed with clearer/colder weather. Some EPS members continue to indicate the risk of very deep areas of low pressure crossing over or close to the UK at times, bringing the risk of locally storm-force winds mainly, but not exclusively to N’ern areas. A few of the more S’ly tracks (currently about 10% of members take lows across Wales and England) would allow the entrainment of colder air into these systems, with a lower risk of heavy snow developing. All output does allow for transient ridges, but the wavelength of the upper pattern is such that any drier/colder interludes would be short-lived, and there is no strong signal for any prolonged settled spells, or easing of zonality..."

Written 6 Jan: "The zonal, cyclonically biased spell looks set to continue for the majority of this period. Further very deep areas of low pressure are signalled to cross the UK at times, bringing the risk of disruptive weather with them, these in turn being driven by a powerful cross-Atlantic jet. Colder Pm airmasses (originally Pc airmasses with origins from N’ern Canada, though heavily modified) are likely to cross many parts between systems, bringing below normal temperatures, and a risk of snow/frost."

Need I go on?

That's all very well Ian, but how about that coming out earlier?  it is good stuff, but disappointing it isn't out there

 

BFTP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sat night looks v interesting Sat night with channel low showing snow Midlands South.

 

Yep, FI is anything beyond this particular development, a true fly in the ointment for forecasters right now and it is something many GFS P 12z runs have picked up on a great number of runs of late, albeit at timescales through 15th to 19th January. Interesting outputs in the offing which should produce much eye-candy all through this week with plenty of decent snow-producing 850s in the mix for even parts of the South too the further we go deeper into January. Transitional stuff in the main but certainly could see some temporarily impressive totals of both rain and snow for some, as well as strong gusts of wind brought into the mix.

Edited by gottolovethisweather

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jheeez gfs keeps upgrading these slider lows!! If they are still there tomorrow am gona start to think we're on to something here! !

 

yeah trend the key, although on 0perational it tracks too far north, parallel better, need ecm on board though 00Z ECM tomorrow is key

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

138-780PUK.GIF?12-18

........with it creeping south:

150-780PUK.GIF?12-18

 

.........one days these maps might come out right! ;)

Good to see the darn Dorset snow dome in all its glory as per usual :-/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Righty-Ho. This can't pass without comment.

Below follow just a random snapshot of detailed medium range briefings from Ops Centre made in first days of Jan, looking towards what was then the 10-15d trend (and now current-short term) period. I will leave it to others to judge if my UKMO colleagues have got things "so massively wrong"....

Written 1 Jan: "The unsettled conditions continue into the trend period but with some evidence of increased meridionality in the upper pattern and so allowing for some greater space between systems and perhaps increased signal for some clearer/colder/showery conditions between."

Written 3 Jan: "Latest f/c output continues to indicate a continuation of the predominantly mobile, and often unsettled, theme, with periods of wet and windy weather interspersed with clearer/colder weather. Some EPS members continue to indicate the risk of very deep areas of low pressure crossing over or close to the UK at times, bringing the risk of locally storm-force winds mainly, but not exclusively to N’ern areas. A few of the more S’ly tracks (currently about 10% of members take lows across Wales and England) would allow the entrainment of colder air into these systems, with a lower risk of heavy snow developing. All output does allow for transient ridges, but the wavelength of the upper pattern is such that any drier/colder interludes would be short-lived, and there is no strong signal for any prolonged settled spells, or easing of zonality..."

Written 6 Jan: "The zonal, cyclonically biased spell looks set to continue for the majority of this period. Further very deep areas of low pressure are signalled to cross the UK at times, bringing the risk of disruptive weather with them, these in turn being driven by a powerful cross-Atlantic jet. Colder Pm airmasses (originally Pc airmasses with origins from N’ern Canada, though heavily modified) are likely to cross many parts between systems, bringing below normal temperatures, and a risk of snow/frost."

Need I go on?

Is this not just a normal Climate forecast for the UK??? :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now that is a chart stacked with potential!!!!  Very interesting where this goes!

 

gfsnh-0-174.png?18gfsnh-1-174.png?18

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dont know why people are getting excited by the gfs channel low...im sure fergie said the other day that met office expect it head to head south towards portugal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's hope to see a little more support for the op within the ensembles. These evening runs have certainly peeked my interest and a lot of other peoples I expect.

Will it be there with cross model support tomorrow?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dont know why people are getting excited by the gfs channel low...im sure fergie said the other day that met office expect it head to head south towards portugal.

 

that will yes, its the 2nd one thats of interest on monday 19th, still well in FI but GFS trending good

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dont know why people are getting excited by the gfs channel low...im sure fergie said the other day that met office expect it head to head south towards portugal.

 

They are capable of getting it wrong you know ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not Quite a boom chart but pretty good.

 

gfsnh-0-198.png?18

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dont know why people are getting excited by the gfs channel low...im sure fergie said the other day that met office expect it head to head south towards portugal.

 

Don't things change simply due to climatic and synoptic variations (think chaos theory here) and fergie of course, doesn't make the weather, right? Please no more METO stuff, there will soon have to be a "is the Met Office better than us thread" or "forget the UKMO models, ask a clairvoyant" thread.  :sorry::closedeyes:  :db:

 

The GFS P 18z which I don't usually stay up to view is a fascinating run from a cold perspective and also from an IMBY perspective too.

 

Back to lurking I go.

 

A quick note to everyone: quality over quantity in this thread from here on in please, if you'd be so kind. :hi:

Edited by gottolovethisweather

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dont know why people are getting excited by the gfs channel low...im sure fergie said the other day that met office expect it head to head south towards portugal.

Indeed...but it was the higher probability outcome at that time, not a dead cert. As always it is a constantly evolving and fluid situation and likely to change with each passing day.

Edited by Chris K

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So hands up if you thought GFS op and GFSp would show an Easterly within the 10 day time-frame tonight.  :cold:

 

Anyone?  :unknw:

 

Even NAVGEM showing an interest.

 

navgemnh-0-144.png?12-23

 

It must be right! :D

Edited by Mucka

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Phew, well the 18zs arent letting us down are they!! Watching them its almost as if they listened to BA state the high near Iceland etc. seems to have read that script to me!

 

Wow are we really onto something here? Surely the consistency of the extended ECM ens and now 2 runs from GFS cant be ignored.

I know were all scared after basicaly no snow for 22 months, but this is the UK, we will not be snow free forever! This could really be the start of a good spell.

 

Well i dont mind saying my heart is in my mouth waiting for the mornings runs... :cold::bomb::help:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not Quite a boom chart but pretty good.

 

gfsnh-0-198.png?18

 

I for one would take that chart but too far away to get too carried away. The way the models are differing atm I think what happens from Friday onwards is still up in the air. However, this year is so more exciting than last years winter when I don't think I remember charts appearing like this came out once for the whole winter period..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I know were all scared after basicaly no snow for 22 months, but this is the UK, we will not be snow free forever! This could really be the start of a good spell.

 

We don't have to wait that long for that, snow for Northern Ireland/SW/Midlands/Northern England at day 1!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

post-9095-0-23504700-1421102538_thumb.jppost-9095-0-92738200-1421102553_thumb.jp

Whilst the finer detail certainly needs refinement , the general theme of hights rising North of the uk is gaining momentum, the idea of sliders infact very very similar to the January 17th 2013 event is certainly there, whether we then get the Atlantic pushing through or the development of cut off low pressure remains to be seen but certainly developments over the last 4 days or so with maybe the results of the strat warming staring to show its hand .

Also forgot to add we have the gfs and the gfs(p) singing from similar song sheets this eve

Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So hands up if you thought GFS op and GFSp would show an Easterly within the 10 day time-frame tonight.  :cold:

 

Anyone?  :unknw:

I said it  when i saw both 96hr charts, the pattern was further west, with slightly better heights over greenie and low was more negatively tilted. looking at both 144 charts tonight i wouldn't bet against tomorrows outputs being even better than tonights, if that high is slightly more west and stronger we will get even more energy underneath and will stop the azores poking its nose in, so we will get subsequent undercuts instead of energy sinking the block.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...