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Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

Paul

By Paul
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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

I would agree with this, We have seen this so often in the past before. It could be that the model is at first to progressive on 

a pattern change. It could also be the possible effects of a MJO wave and its implications on the stratosphere. Again the 

amplification could be down to the strong  heatflux that we have seen in the stratosphere will have effects as it propagates 

downward towards the troposphere. 

 

That is a very weak signal at the moment as the clusters highlight: post-14819-0-42015300-1420979875_thumb.p

 

Cooling down from Tuesday for the south with two periods of heavy rain: 

 

post-14819-0-97273900-1420980035_thumb.g

 

Looking drier Friday-Sunday.

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted

http://www.meteociel...6&carte=&mode=0

 

it seems the storm now is much further  south so  the that  could make things interesting to say  the  least!!!

 

I'm confused, why do you keep posting perturbation 16?

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Afternoon all

 

Further to Steves post I won't add much re the storm apart from hopes that it gets downgraded. I come out in hives at just the suggestion of deep low pressure getting anywhere near me. A few bad past experiences down here have firmly put me in the Hate Storms Camp.

 

Anyway in terms of this lack of agreements with the outputs much of this emanates from upstream developments over in the USA and Canada.

 

A bellwether of sorts is the development of a shortwave around T96hrs over the central northern USA/Canadian border, its track and how far it digs into the USA will effect low heights over Greenland.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Afternoon all

 

 

 

A bellwether of sorts is the development of a shortwave around T96hrs over the central northern USA/Canadian border, its track and how far it digs into the USA will effect low heights over Greenland.

and that all depends on what the upper air pattern actually is at 96h, see below; follow the GFS prediction of the flow at 300mb, near enough to where the actual jet is flowing to see this outcome?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

6z snow risk on Tuesday and early Wednesday, then again Wednesday night with leading edge snow into Thursday..lamp posts and radar at the ready :-)

post-4783-0-31890800-1420982086_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-06093300-1420982094_thumb.pn

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

6z snow risk on Tuesday and early Wednesday, then again Wednesday night with leading edge snow into Thursday..lamp posts and radar at the ready :-)

 

As IF advised yesterday the GFS snow charts are not great. Looking at the hi res models and they paint a totally different view:

 

post-14819-0-28821900-1420982610_thumb.p  

 

The initial front tomorrow is as expected (looking at the uppers) just rain for all: post-14819-0-86964900-1420982829_thumb.p

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

They may not be great but snow could fall to low levels at times next week according to the 6z and other output, again I choose to be positive about possible wintry prospects.

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

They may not be great but snow could fall to low levels at times next week according to the 6z and other output, again I choose to be positive about possible wintry prospects.

 

 

Fair enough. Its just those GFS charts suggest's some sort of snowfest when in reality it's just a narrow weakening cold front with showers following. Though UKMO has a trough (or three) possibly in the flow following:

 

post-14819-0-10288000-1420983434_thumb.g

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Stormyking Rising Star

Stormyking

Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
Posted

Lots of interest in the charts for this next week, very much looking forward to the storm potential. I also like the look of some decent convective activity too. Absolute brilliant week to come up for weather enthusiasts, as there literally is something for everyone. Rain, Snow, Winds, Hail, thunder and lightning potential too.

 

Id happily take this 2nd to a beasterly! Still a long way to go with the winter for some proper cold, be an interesting few weeks model watching! 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted

Fair enough. Its just those GFS charts suggest's some sort of snowfest when in reality it's just a narrow weakening cold front with showers following. Though UKMO has a trough (or three) possibly in the flow following:

 

attachicon.giffax72s.gif

It's not just the GFS showing a risk of snow, even the met office have mentioned something wintry for Tuesday as cold air digs SE. The bottom line is, I'm not making it up, it's what the charts show, again I prefer to look on the bright side at what could go right instead of looking for everything that could go wrong..it's about time the south had a change of luck this winter!

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted

It's not just the GFS showing a risk of snow, even the met office have mentioned something wintry for Tuesday as cold air digs SE. The bottom line is, I'm not making it up, it's what the charts show, again I prefer to look on the bright side at what could go right instead of looking for everything that could go wrong..it's about time the south had a change of luck this winter!

True I wouldn't mind if the stalling cold front falls as snow instead of rain, but I think it could cause even more problems when it melts, than it would do if it just rained flooding wise.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Fair enough. Its just those GFS charts suggest's some sort of snowfest when in reality it's just a narrow weakening cold front with showers following. Though UKMO has a trough (or three) possibly in the flow following:

 

attachicon.giffax72s.gif

 

At 72h how on earth the senior man can inject 3 troughs at that time scale is beyond my understanding of meteorology. At 12h probably at 24h following clumps/clusters of cloud on the IR Sat is fine but 72h-come on laddie!

Explain to the current course of new forecasters at Exeter Met how you justify it please?

 

see I do not blindly follow Met UK, if I think there is something wrong I say so.

Edited by johnholmes
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chicken soup Aficionado

chicken soup

Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn
Posted

It's not just the GFS showing a risk of snow, even the met office have mentioned something wintry for Tuesday as cold air digs SE. The bottom line is, I'm not making it up, it's what the charts show, again I prefer to look on the bright side at what could go right instead of looking for everything that could go wrong..it's about time the south had a change of luck this winter!

....hope your right frosty...but the updated met office warnings make no mention of snow anywhere
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

....hope your right frosty...but the updated met office warnings make no mention of snow anywhere

Perhaps they will mention something tomorrow regarding Tuesday, as things stand, Tuesday looks like being cold and bright with wintry showers but also longer spells of rain, sleet or wet snow, I think some areas will see a covering on tuesday.

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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

Fair enough. Its just those GFS charts suggest's some sort of snowfest when in reality it's just a narrow weakening cold front with showers following. Though UKMO has a trough (or three) possibly in the flow following:

 

attachicon.giffax72s.gif

do how ever wish the heights to our south would pee of.

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PHLIPPY67 Newbie

PHLIPPY67

Posted
  • Location: Withernsea, E.Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Withernsea, E.Yorks
Posted

Just been looking at the f/cast for next week and once again the snow threat has diminished due to the SW-NE track of the Tue Low and the cold spell that was meant to come from Thu onwards has turned into the usual W/NWly airstream with wind and rain for most...! and i thought winter was meant to start next week...even the Middle East has had a few inches of snow...!! wish that Jet-stream would just bugger off Sth where it should be...

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Have to say that the next couple of extended ens suites are eagerly awaited to see if the gefs trend towards the ECM or vica versa.

Are we finally going to see the heights to the south/southwest/southeast relent for more than a couple of days.

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chicken soup Aficionado

chicken soup

Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn
Posted

Just been looking at the f/cast for next week and once again the snow threat has diminished due to the SW-NE track of the Tue Low and the cold spell that was meant to come from Thu onwards has turned into the usual W/NWly airstream with wind and rain for most...mozt! and i thought winter was meant to start next week...even the Middle East has had a few inches of snow...!! wish that Jet-stream would just bugger off Sth where it should be...

so frustrating isnt it....and no doubt the upcoming 12zs will continue the downgrades.
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

Have to say that the next couple of extended ens suites are eagerly awaited to see if the gefs trend towards the ECM or vica versa.

Are we finally going to see the heights to the south/southwest/southeast relent for more than a couple of days.

 

I was looking at the end of the run of the dynamic trop chart ba and it would support this view.

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)

so frustrating isnt it....and no doubt the upcoming 12zs will continue the downgrades.

To be honest, widespread snow has not been shown within 120 hours this month.

Edited by mulzy
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Gael_Force Accomplished

Gael_Force

Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
Posted (edited)

At 72h how on earth the senior man can inject 3 troughs at that time scale is beyond my understanding of meteorology. At 12h probably at 24h following clumps/clusters of cloud on the IR Sat is fine but 72h-come on laddie!

Explain to the current course of new forecasters at Exeter Met how you justify it please?

 

see I do not blindly follow Met UK, if I think there is something wrong I say so.

 

Perhaps with the use of simulated IR charts like on the DWD ICON?

 

icon-7-73_wxz8.png

Edited by Gael_Force
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

and that all depends on what the upper air pattern actually is at 96h, see below; follow the GFS prediction of the flow at 300mb, near enough to where the actual jet is flowing to see this outcome?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Obviously but its easier to highlight a single feature that is reflective of that, a pointer that's easy to pick up by looking at the charts.

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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Popular Post
Posted

....hope your right frosty...but the updated met office warnings make no mention of snow anywhere

That's because they have purposely decided not to issue the ice/snow warnings until tomorrow morning, to judge continuity on troughing in HRES modelling and resultant risk of snow. For the south, continuity thus far remains good for SW/W Country at greatest likelihood of settling snow (EC 00Z painting very similar areal signal to E4).

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Author
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Posted

With the 12z's about to roll, just wanted to take a moment to remind everyone that the banter thread is available for all your model related moans, ramps, wishes and hopes.

 

So if your post is more about what you're hoping the models will show, or an emotional response to what the models are showing, rather than discussion around the output itself, please head into that thread:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-201415/

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