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Paul

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

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run up to mid month could provide a snow event and the parallel has  modelled one this evening.

 

gfs-2-168.png?18gfs-0-168.png?18

 

Both the Op and the parallel still have a deep low forming end of hi res. Parallel would be a newsworthy event but thankfully unlikely.

 

gfs-0-192.png?18

Edited by Mucka

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18z shows a lot of snow showers piling into exposed north western parts of the UK and stormy winds in the far north only slowly easing, it looks pretty cold next weekend.

post-4783-0-61095200-1420583504_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-61241700-1420583512_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-85042100-1420583517_thumb.pn

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Great post Tamara. The only problem is the predicted cold spells keep being pushed back, first it was meant to be the middle of December, then the end, then the middle of January and now end of January. I do hope your right though, Ian's post was more positive, and I do see short cold spells bringing snow to lower levels in the North, but I can't see anything prolonged yet.

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Pub run Drunk once more....?

 

gfsnh-0-288.png?18

 

gfs-1-300.png?18

Edited by SE Blizzards

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This more like it in FI from the op.

 

gfsnh-0-312.png?18gfs-2-300.png?18

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Pub run Drunk once more....?

 

gfsnh-0-288.png?18

Would be nice though LOL!!.If this becomes a trend could be Happy Days!!

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Also on latest GFS run PV seems to have fragmented and more seems due North as opposed to North West. May be reading that wrong so apologies if that is not the case. However,the more it moves Eastwards the more potential for the UK and NW Europe to finally get in the act for colder weather to become more established.Just need all the other models to get on board now.

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This more like it in FI from the op.

 

gfsnh-0-312.png?18gfs-2-300.png?18

All it needs to do now is verify, instead of being put back day after day. The GFS was a couple of days ago showing this for the 15th/16th, now it's the 18th/19th whilst the other models show no interest at day 10. We really need to land this within the 10 day time frame to have any decent consideration. 

The parallel has ploughed another deep low through the UK on the 15th.

gfs-0-204.png?18

Again widespread severe gales and storm force winds in exposed areas. Not interested in anything particularly cold developing.

Edited by Captain shortwave

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This more like it in FI from the op.

 

gfsnh-0-312.png?18gfs-2-300.png?18

 

 

If Calsberg done model runs....

 

Not really surprising in all honesty that the GFS op has shown this, it's been threatening a run like this for quite some time now. Whether it will be close to verifying is another matter. Great to see nonetheless  :)

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Has anyone got any charts for the 14th please regarding this storm? Thanks

 

There you go amanda. Oops I notice someone has already posted but you can run the whole sequence here. Doesn't make good viewing as potentially a couple of nasty storms.

http://weather.graphics/gsm/ygfs_t1534_global.php

post-12275-0-93925000-1420584485_thumb.p

Edited by knocker

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If Calsberg done model runs....

Not really surprising in all honesty that the GFS op has shown this, it's been threatening a run like this for quite some time now. Whether it will be close to verifying is another matter. Great to see nonetheless :)

Not surprising, given GFS/GEFS are still running with MJO moving into phase 7/8, but with ECM/EPS moving it into COD before phase 7, justification to remain sceptical of GFS output for now, as Ian F alluded to earlier.

CPC MJO:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Edited by Nick F

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Not surprising, given GFS/GEFS are still running with MJO moving into phase 7/8, but with ECM/EPS moving it into COD before phase 7, justification to remain sceptical of GFS output for now, as Ian F alluded to earlier.

CPC MJO:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

Oh, of course Nick, we are miles away from cracking open the Champagne on this one.

 

But the GEFS have been playing around with this idea for a few days now, so like i say, it was only a matter of time before we seen an Op run like the one we just saw. We really do need to see a shift (without COD) to phase 7/8 in the ECM/EPS pretty smartish though, then we can start to have more confidence. But feet firmly on the ground for now...

Edited by SE Blizzards

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This more like it in FI from the op.

 

gfsnh-0-312.png?18gfs-2-300.png?18

looks like a horses head! Must be a sign? Hopefully it won't gallop off somewhere else with winter!

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ECM London ensembles

 

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

Nice to see 1 or 2 members going for ice days towards the end there mucka  :good: A definite cooler trend past mid-month!

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Whether the ec or gfs family are right or wrong there's still cold to be had even by the ecm but the gefs and both gfs have more colder spells/snaps.

But there's certainly changes in the charts on all the models that lead me to believe the vortex will weaken or relocate allowing a pattern change of sorts.

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ECM London ensembles

 

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

 

Nice to see 1 or 2 members going for ice days towards the end there mucka  :good: A definite cooler trend past mid-month!

This looks really promising doesnt it! Considering those are London ensembles then most of the UK is obviously to the north and west of there so ud hope even colder? A lot of the country looking 1 or 2C??

 

Can see why some are talking about snow chances soon :D lovely!

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This looks really promising doesnt it! Considering those are London ensembles then most of the UK is obviously to the north and west of there so ud hope even colder? A lot of the country looking 1 or 2C??

 

Can see why some are talking about snow chances soon :D lovely!

 

Yes, i would suspect the ECM ENS 2M Temps for northern parts would roughly resemble those of the ones i posted from the GEFS...

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looks like a horses head! Must be a sign? Hopefully it won't gallop off somewhere else with winter!

Haha quality post made me laugh

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Well interesting that that both GFS and ECM show volatility in the ensembles post 11th or 12th of Jan.  For the GFS this has been a present for quite some time.  Interesting that the ECM shows dispersion at the same range.  Lets see what happens win we get there. 

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Maybe, just maybe the first signs of change ahead.

ECM

ECH1-240.GIF?07-12

GEM

gemnh-0-240.png?00

GFS

gfsnh-0-240.png?0

Parallel

gfsnh-0-240.png?0

 

All show some sort of Atlantic ridge at day 10, perhaps with cold setting in a day or so later. But at east other models aside from the GFS are sniffing this now (even if it is just a brief toppler).

Edited by Captain shortwave

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