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Paul

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

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Why are we looking out into infinity? when what we have at our 'doorstop'. May deliver for many, in reliable timeframe.

Not in the south east it won't - GFSp giving a bit more amplication which would suit us better but unfortunately I trust the ECM which looks like a bit more of a toppler but better further north.

Never expect too much further south from such transitory weather...31 years of winter weather has shown me that. :)

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Model thread where we look for cold spells...and I see nothing on the horizon except some wintry weather Pennines North...it won't deliver for many but enjoy those that get white stuff

Correct in some aspects, what is dawning is that this once cool/cold zonal has been enhanced -7c uppers from north to south is pretty good going, the charts speak for themselves & this is as good as any a cold spell, not sure how you define it but below average is good foundation, the ens dictate this. With time the S will come more into play, increasing the risk of snow. The point is we do not need to look far out to have something to grab on. As ever much can change, but I as do many, are encouraged by latest model output.

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Was thinking exactly the same- does anyone have any stats on highest January night time temp say midnight-4 am?

Its incredibly mild tonight, just driving home from work and the car was reading at 14c! Not sure what the record is for Jan but this is surely well above the average

post-10303-0-64796700-1420846128_thumb.p

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GFS P is the coldest most wintry run in the reliable time frame this winter. 

 

Very wintry indeed for Northern England/Scotland/N.Ireland.

 

SST are working against us so you'll need a touch of elevation in the above zones to make the most out of the wintry potential.

 

From an IMBY perspective I'm excited! 

Edited by Cheese Rice

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Ok, I wasnt having a unnecessary pop or anything as I enjoy your posts, but I just wasn't seeing widespread snow next week - at this stage at least - as by the nature of PM airflows in winter, modification and flow often mean only certain areas see any wintry showers

(I.e the Cheshire gap) . Having saidthat it certainly looks like being interesting, stormy, wintry showers, and not mild zonal mush

It's ok, I overreacted to your comment. Yes I agree it's an interesting spell coming up for those of us seeking something seasonal. :-)

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How about this for a day 8 mean?

 

gens-21-0-192.png

 

Anyone disappointed with that should either reevaluate their UK Winter ambitions... or move to the North pole!

Exactly it's exciting stuff and there's more or less cross model agreement plenty of snowfall further north.

Even don't south some snowfall and getting colder from the northwest polar air and better possibilities towards Arctic air with possibly a ne flow going to be nice down here in the south just to get a taster for what will come perhaps for the end of jan.

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It looks like GFS P has joined in the cocktail party which GEM invited others to tonight. So now the ECMWF, JMA are also showing colder solutions for next weekend.

Question is will there be a hangover tomorrow morning ?

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a more arctic sourced airflow later next week with snow showers around and frosts early and late, looking further ahead, troughs continuing to swing SE would bolster the generally cold unsettled outlook. As I have said a few times recently, compared to how the models looked at the end of last week, coldies should have more to smile about now, with hopefully better things to come.

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It's ok, I overreacted to your comment. Yes I agree it's an interesting spell coming up for those of us seeking something seasonal. :-)

Nice one chaps. great to see some respect in here.

Having watched the charts for week  after week of mush i do feel that something a little special may happen before month out. from memory, once toppler after toppler sets up it only takes a short while for one of them to topple into scandi and away we go. Anyways.....  I would just urge members to watch the dark colors lift out of Greenland and Eastern US and not focus too much on MJO, AO, NAO etc, etc. Just enjoy it and listen to the experts input for guidance. Paul, please remove my badge of honor, after eight years or so, it seems excessive,  as it was my little boy who opened a second account,. Thanks 

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I've been watching the radar as well as the output this morning and the cold front is so well defined by a by a pencil thin line of heavy rain, it really is quite beautiful to a weather geek.

 

Anyway to the output. UKMO, GFS and GFSp still going with the more powerful storm I'm afraid.

 

UN120-21.GIF?10-05gfsnh-0-120.png?0gfsnh-0-120.png

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GFS still running with the storm next week

Chart courtesy weatherbell

 

post-12275-0-85022200-1420869659_thumb.p

Edited by knocker

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GFS still running with the storm next week

Chart courtesy weatherbell

Yeah it's looking bad as it stands and, from an IMY point of view, it would be hoping for the final outcome to be watered down from that (no pun intended) as I'm on a west facing Pennine up slope and right in that central zone of maximum winds.

Personally though I fully expect a shift, whether north or south and feel that the intensity will probably moderate slightly anyway but it certainly looks like a nasty storm at present.

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Morning all, I've been saving the GFS ensembles over the last few days (for London) and whilst the ensembles have been all over the place in FI, it's clear to see the cooling trend - and today's 00z GFS ensembles have a good cluster trending very cold at the end...

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There is no question nobody want this to verify Looking at the 900mb wind speeds it has 100kt gusts running straight up the Irish Sea 18z Weds.

 

ECMWF 00z forecast shows powerful, hurricane-force low-pressure moving thru Ireland & UK Wed & Thur #bomb WMO data: pic.twitter.com/Jug63eiGlK

Edited by knocker

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There is no question nobody want this to verify

 

ECMWF 00z forecast shows powerful, hurricane-force low-pressure moving thru Ireland & UK Wed & Thur #bomb WMO data: pic.twitter.com/Jug63eiGlK

Strongest gusts through the Irish Sea/w Ireland at T120. Thereafter, it looks like the central belt Scotland with gusts in excess of 80 knots Thursday morning through rush hour. that looks dangerous, if the timing and track verifies.

Further south, very windy around midnight/4am but nothing notable once this passes through. Clearly, the track will move n/s and the 'danger zone' with it.

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Yeah it's looking bad as it stands and, from an IMY point of view, it would be hoping for the final outcome to be watered down from that (no pun intended) as I'm on a west facing Pennine up slope and right in that central zone of maximum winds.

Personally though I fully expect a shift, whether north or south and feel that the intensity will probably moderate slightly anyway but it certainly looks like a nasty storm at present.

not liking the storm next week  looking like it could cause a lot of problems  in the uk  now

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Westerly driven pattern for next 10-15 days , cold at times according to an Ian F tweet,. Nothing saying anything unusual for Jan there....still much better than last year for cold potential though....strong winds main concern though, not looking great on that front!!!

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Looking at next wed/thurs storm and the evidence suggests it will drop to around 955mb. The track suggests N Scotland so if I was living in Glasgow/Edinburgh I would be getting rather nervous!

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150110/00/prmslAberdeenshire.png

 

Beyond the storm and the GEM yet again has lost the plot and gone mad by showing an E,ly!

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015011000/gem-0-222.png?00

 

Now I have known the GEM to be correct in these situations and this occurred I believe in Jan 2013. However even I believe the above chart is unlikely to be correct.

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14 - -15  jan looking interesting to say the lest

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And finally

 

4: Listen to the likes of John Holmes, Tamara, Steve Murr (even though he is quiet of late :-) and Chionomaniac, Recretos and Matt Hugo on the strat thread and here on MOD, to name but a few,

 

 

erm, but who do you listen to when these people dont agree? :unsure2:  when one says 'pattern change ahead' and another says 'no pattern change ahead' ? :unknw:

a very mobile picture this morning looks set to continue for the forseeable and through the heart of winter. very unsettled, so no three days are looking similar with a blowy, breezy, rather wet/showery short periods of mild, short periods of cold. some wintriness at times, especially for northern hills.

although this morning there appears to be less time spent under pm air then yesterday, so snow chances are reduced .

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Models have moved away from last nights colder solutions shown especially by GEM. Looks like there's too much energy in the jet to allow any significant pm incursions.

Fairly typical westerly pattern for the foreseeable unless we get help from a SSW or wave 2.

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Models have moved away from last nights colder solutions shown especially by GEM. Looks like there's too much energy in the jet to allow any significant pm incursions.

Fairly typical westerly pattern for the foreseeable unless we get help from a SSW or wave 2.

Certainly it is not your typical Westerly pattern or everyone on this forum would be happy when it was forecasted.An unstable flow of cold followed by ever decreasing mild sectors

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011000/gfs-2-78.png?0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011000/ECU0-96.GIF?10-12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011000/gfs-1-96.png?0

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Looking at next wed/thurs storm and the evidence suggests it will drop to around 955mb. The track suggests N Scotland so if I was living in Glasgow/Edinburgh I would be getting rather nervous!

 

.

Interesting how the ECM has fallen in line with GFS given the view expressed by some that it didn't model storms well

If that verifies I will be amazed if we don't get a red warning from the metO given track and wind speed through thr Central belt

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