Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

[SMU]

Last 1 from me-

 

saw this on one of the GFS ensembles.

 

Certainly the coldest uppers I have ever seen.. -40c.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015011318/gensnh-11-0-384.png

 

S

[Barry12]

So now we have the ECM, UKMO and GFS P all agreeing, with the GFS out on it's own..theirs are reason it's getting replaced!

[Eugene]

Last 1 from me-

 

saw this on one of the GFS ensembles.

 

Certainly the coldest uppers I have ever seen.. -40c.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015011318/gensnh-11-0-384.png

 

S

 

WTF, never seen that that depth of cold before, whats the cause of such deep cold?

[Mucka]

Think GFS has given up trying to figure out what happens and thought, "I know, col!"

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

Think GFS has given up trying to figure out what happens and thought, "I know, col!"

 

 

 

 

I was just about to post that it looks as though it has lost the plot. Some very low minima possible in that scenario though. -15C would be plausible somewhere in that scenario.

[snowangel32]

I was just about to post that it looks as though it has lost the plot. Some very low minima possible in that scenario though. -15C would be plausible somewhere in that scenario.

That looks like a thing of beauty also looks like the pv wants to pack its bags just needs a little push. Surely that would bring some very cold minima across the whole of the uk.

Just wait until frosty sees that chart he will faint lol netweather is about to go into pandemonium.

Edited January 14, 2015 by snowangel32

[Mucka]

I was just about to post that it looks as though it has lost the plot. Some very low minima possible in that scenario though. -15C would be plausible somewhere in that scenario.

 

Yeah but I don't trust it either and probably not that much snow around.

UKMO doesn't disrupt the low that well and hard to know how much cold air would be wrapped in the low without the 850's. 

 

 

Ah finally something happens in GFS toward end of hi res as the low sinks South, that could bring snow but I doubt we will see the same output twice out to 120 at the moment let alone 192.

 

Edited January 14, 2015 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

That looks like a thing of beauty also looks like the pv wants to pack its bags just needs a little push. Surely that would bring some very cold minima across the whole of the uk.

 

Completely at odds with the UKMO 144 chart though, which I can't quite decipher whether would be snowy or wet...

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yeah but I don't trust it either and probably not that much snow around.

UKMO doesn't disrupt the low that well and hard to know how much cold air would be wrapped in the low without the 850's. 

 

 

I suspect it would sink SSE across the UK with the high toppling around the top. Agree though, we can't see the 850s so I'm stumped as to where the snow line would be. Possibly N&E of Manchester as a rough guide?

[Mucka]

I suspect it would sink SSE across the UK with the high toppling around the top. Agree though, we can't see the 850s so I'm stumped as to where the snow line would be. Possibly N&E of Manchester as a rough guide?

 

Wouldn't care to guess mate. There is a warm sector pushes in ahead of it which could displace any cold air previously so I guess any snow would be marginal but without at least the 850s for the T72 chart extremely difficult to extrapolate. Maybe Steve or a few others could take a reasonable stab at it but I pass. 

 

Really all academic anyway for now as we are seeing a different solution every run from each model. Probably GFSp has been the most consistent so far.

Edited January 14, 2015 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

Wouldn't care to guess mate. There is a warm sector pushes in ahead of it which could displace any cold air previously so I guess any snow would be marginal but without at least the 850s for the T72 chart extremely difficult to extrapolate. Maybe Steve or a few others could take a reasonable stab at it but I pass. 

 

I have no idea why these issues with the UKMO output are still persisting. The whole thing is doing my nut in TBH, how hard can it be to sort out at either end??

[Mucka]

I have no idea why these issues with the UKMO output are still persisting. The whole thing is doing my nut in TBH, how hard can it be to sort out at either end??

 

 

It is frustrating, no question.

 

Maybe NAVGEM has it nailed, another 120 chart another solution.

 

 

GFS parallel trickling out, not bad at 144. Small cut off high East of Iceland and slider low just West of UK

 

 

GFS control offers decent support for the Op. Ensembles still a mixed bag.

 

GFS short ensembles Central England

 

 

Another wintry run from GFSp 

 

 

The low to the South is a second slider which would bring a spell of sleet snow to many on its way South. Still quite consistent with previous output so hats off if it gets close to final outcome.

Edited January 14, 2015 by Mucka

[terrier]

Not a bad gfsp this morning. Not great but better. But one thing I keep seeing is people saying snowmaggedon for uk next week. Sorry but maybe it's me but I'm struggling to see heavy widespread snowfall for uk next week on the output. Plus that warm sector on the ukmo could bring rainfall for most parts in the north.

[SMU]

Awsome ECM 144

The very best homegrown surface cold with a column of -9c across the UK

Bitter.

PS

Ukmo 144 is shallow with a southerly ahead of the low = not much cold air displacement...

Edited January 14, 2015 by Steve Murr

[doctor32]

Surely we are in for some widespread snow beginning of next week, as long as there is precipitation to go with these cold uppers looking at ecm @ +144h

 

[West is Best]

Not a bad gfsp this morning. Not great but better. But one thing I keep seeing is people saying snowmaggedon for uk next week. Sorry but maybe it's me but I'm struggling to see heavy widespread snowfall for uk next week on the output. Plus that warm sector on the ukmo could bring rainfall for most parts in the north.

 

I'm just containing my excitement over the ECM until the run completes, however I also like the UKMO so could you be a bit more specific with your comment? Which timeframe are you seeing a warmer sector, and what upper temps? Any chance of a chart? I can't see the same thing, but then the UKMO data is hard to grab at the moment.

 

All of this reminds me a lot of 1978/9. The ECM … well more in a mo' hopefully.

Edited January 14, 2015 by West is Best

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts

ECM

Slack, cyclonic flow with 850s generally -6C to -8C. There would be snow in places here.

 

UKMO

This chart would have a front through the country, unsure too about this but I would expect at least leading edge snow on it. I would suspect that this chart isn't particularly warm so to speak.

 

GFS

Showers in places of rain/sleet/snow. The front hasn't made it to the UK on this one yet. A much slower evolution of the Atlantic attack.

 

Parallel

Classic battleground slider scenario, at this time there is snow falling away from the far south/south west, but at this front gets batted away then even those places see snow as the front clears/ Another batteground scenario takes place later.

 

GEM

Another similar scenario to the GFS (P) I would expect.

 

Day 7 ECM, the Atlantic is back in and we are back to the chilly west/north westerly set up as the heights to our north get sucked into the developing Russian ridge. Fronts move across the UK without disruption. Surface temperatures would still be struggling, especially in areas with lying snow as a thaw would be very slow.

Edited January 14, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[shaky]

Another brilliant output this morning! ! Gfs has backed down from its output last night and the gfs paralell is another snowy run!! Ukmo could be better at 144 hours but that will probably change in the evening! !

[MR EXTREMES]

Awsome ECM 144

The very best homegrown surface cold with a column of -9c across the UK

Bitter.

PS

Ukmo 144 is shallow with a southerly ahead of the low = not much cold air displacement...

very nice 168 ecm 

[West is Best]

Day 6 charts

ECM

Slack, cyclonic flow with 850s generally -6C to -8C. There would be snow in places here.

 

UKMO

This chart would have a front through the country, unsure too about this but I would expect at least leading edge snow on it. I would suspect that this chart isn't particularly warm so to speak.

 

GFS

Showers in places of rain/sleet/snow. The front hasn't made it to the UK on this one yet. A much slower evolution of the Atlantic attack.

 

Parallel

Classic battleground slider scenario, at this time there is snow falling away from the far south/south west, but at this front gets batted away then even those places see snow as the front clears/ Another batteground scenario takes place later.

 

GEM

Another similar scenario to the GFS (P) I would expect.

 

Great charts Captain Shortwave.

 

It's probably worth mentioning that the very best snow scenarios are always the battleground ones. The bitter straight easterlies, like Jan-March 1986, can be dry and actually exceedingly boring. Ask anyone if they remember Feb 1986 and few will yet the CET was -1.1C, but it was soooo dry. These outputs are reminding me of 1978/9. Pinching myself, and hoping.

 

The ECM at T192 reverts to a backdoor breakdown of sorts through an Icelandic low, but the potential for re-load from that is high. 

 

All-in-all some great runs.

[MR EXTREMES]

azores at 192 bit of a spoiler but if this low pressure to our northeast drops south into europe could be round 2

its possible this could reload.

but i expect this to be different tonight anyway.

but nice ecm up until 192

 

both gfs and gfs p are blinding superb lush sexy and worth a ramp a bloody big ramp.

 

reload alert slendid

Edited January 14, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[knocker]

Just a quick glance as I'm sure everyone has it covered from all angles. The swan song of the GFS has a slightly different take on next week with the Azores HP having more influence forcing the low to travel down the North Sea at a later date. Of course this just idle speculation as it won't verify at this range.

Chart weatherbell

Edited January 14, 2015 by Paul

[Captain Shortwave]

Anyway talking to earlier snow potential. Using the ECM as an example but is representative of the output.

The models again this morning suggest an occluded front with push south/south east through the UK as the trough slip southwards. This could bring a wintry mix to many parts of the UK and depending on 850s and other factors could bring a snow event for many.

ECM 850s

That might be good enough for a widespread snow event with 850s of -6C widespread. GFS/Parallel are a little less cold with the 850s in general.

 

Beyond this  point (this seems to be where the models diverge somewhat. We need to see how strong a high we form to our north and then it is a case of how that high behaves. Does it stay in place to our north/north east and we stay cold/very cold, or does it get pulled away allowing the Atlantic back in (albeit still with a below average set up). Still more runs until we find that out.

Edited January 14, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[winterof79]

I'm just containing my excitement over the ECM until the run completes, however I also like the UKMO so could you be a bit more specific with your comment? Which timeframe are you seeing a warmer sector, and what upper temps? Any chance of a chart? I can't see the same thing, but then the UKMO data is hard to grab at the moment.

 

All of this reminds me a lot of 1978/9. The ECM … well more in a mo' hopefully.

Not a bad winter.

[MR EXTREMES]

Just a quick glance as I'm sure everyone has it covered from all angles. The swan song of the GFS has a slightly different take on next week with the Azores HP having more influence forcing the low to travel down the North Sea at a later date.  Of course this just idle speculation as it won't verify at this range.

Chart weatherbell

and heights building over greenland with a reload coming in as the low sinks south south east into europe best runs of the winter from all the top models

Edited January 14, 2015 by Paul