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I remember once 2 or 3 years back possibly January 2013 GFS out did all the other models and got our snow forecast correct (all other models predicted rain)

plus more recently boxing day-

we live in hope! At least the risk is there how would you rate our NW Kent chances 40%?

The euro 4 has just updated- no snow in the raw output out to 24...

S

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Edited by Kentspur
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Just another link-   The Euro4 model is the one my above post but will add again- For beginners use these 2 - you can just change the timelines with each model run ( some 2 hours after each run it

The front is now beginning to push in-   Watch out for the dewpoints to start dropping from the SE later in the eve,   There is a LOT of of PPN out in the channel arcing NNE ( NNN - even NNW)  

You sound like my ex

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Euro 4 shows all rain pretty much.

Netweather radar is seeing the showers starting to turn wintry in the west, also in the showers over Cambridgeshire and Northamptonshire at this moment. Who knows. Rain over here and the London are at the moment.

Just rain here

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Late night ramp

I will take lucky number 13 please from the GFS ens

gens-13-1-144.png

gens-13-0-144.png

Look at all that cold flooding our way, along with areas of snow pushing off the continent. If only we could trend to this.  :air_kiss:

 

Lets hope the models trend cold and snowy tomorrow.

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I think the chances of our region (at least the South-East part) seeing snow tomorrow is pretty slim, like this morning higher ground will be best. The NMM does offer some hope though and does show that it wouldn't take a lot for it to be a snow event rather than a sleety mess.

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Late night ramp

I will take lucky number 13 please from the GFS ens

Look at all that cold flooding our way, along with areas of snow pushing off the continent. If only we could trend to this.  :air_kiss:

 

Lets hope the models trend cold and snowy tomorrow.

 

that's the best run all winter- bitterly cold from start to finish.... 2010 stylee

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To be fair E4 messed up wednesday morning... my only concern is dew points - we really need these to take a fall and fast.

The temps near me are way too high right now... Temp is currently 5.1ºc with dewpoint at 2.8ºc (a drop of 0.3ºc in the past 15 minutes).

The fact that the dewpoint is suddenly beginning to drop is a start, so let's hope it starts to plummet!

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Madly the NW 10 day forecast that has shown at best 20% chance of snow for Medway tomorrow has rocketed on the last runs to 70%..!

Isn't that from the generated from the GFS, could be wrong though??

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Fergie kindly replied back to me: "It's a rather dynamic situation for SE and risk of some snow on N edge still not ruled out, albeit knife-edge. High-res modelling has changed tune a few times last few days! Re NMM (and admittedly I never look at it so can't offer much opinion) is never cited by UKMO"

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I believe it is, the pub run was actually a bit of an upgrade for tomorrow for Kent. 

 

I'm watching to local stations like a hawk, we are looking at 2.8 with a dew of 1.0 currently, I think that speaks volumes on how marginal this one is.

 

A drop of a degree or so in DP in the coming couple of hours is not unheard of at all and would mean all that PPN moving its way east right now would fall as something more interesting than rain.

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Colder air thankfully nibbling south surface temperatures not on the right side here damn UHI - but fergie did not put a like across it, so I'm faintly hopeful. Set my alarm for 5:50.... should get some kip.

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Very skeptical of it, in one frame on the one i use it turned all from snow to all rain!

 

Plus moving NE isnt good for me so boooooooo

Should be veering more northerly in the coming hours - SSW air flow is keeping the temperature up I assume.

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Very skeptical of it, in one frame on the one i use it turned all from snow to all rain!

 

Plus moving NE isnt good for me so boooooooo

I wouldn't take too much notice of the PPN type charts - They're based on GFS overlays and if the GFS has it wrong then the charts will be incorrect too, plus they tend to be a bit buggy by changing dramatically frame to frame.

 

Sleet/Wet snow North of the region perhaps? DP a little high..

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I wouldn't take too much notice of the PPN type charts - They're based on GFS overlays and if the GFS has it wrong then the charts will be incorrect too, plus they tend to be a bit buggy by changing dramatically frame to frame.

Sleet/Wet snow North of the region perhaps? DP a little high..

Do you think the ppn is headed our way Daniel and if so an eta ? Edited by snowfish1
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Do you think the ppn is headed our way Daniel and if so an eta ?

It seems to be - To the West of London winds are more SW but to the South and East winds are more North-Westerly. I think London/North Kent could see the first batch skimming through, the second batch further South.

 

Rain/Sleet most likely, perhaps snow to higher ground during heavier bursts

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patchy rain here. 2.3c. Heavier precip to the north and south here, but just odd bits of rain here. Typical. Looks on wrong side of marginal here anyway, dew point is 2c.

Edited by Mark N
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