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Captain Shortwave

Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

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Nailed-on for who?  AFAIK, it's snow or sleet for the far south-east, rain for London and parts of Essex, and sweet FA here.

North and South downs look like they are going to get pasted, maybe the chilterns too

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North and South downs look like they are going to get pasted, maybe the chilterns too

 

That's as maybe, but the region does include areas other than the North and South Downs (lovely though they are).  I might as well state that there's no reason for snow warnings based on the fact that Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire won't get any.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheforecaster

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NOTHING is nailed on, whether it be for tonight or indeed in to next week...and that works both ways (i.e. no guarantee of rain or snow)

 

Steve is pointing out the possibility via the modelling - as others have done through the day - but it's one of those situations (as ever!) where conditions are so marginal it will be a case of keeping an eye on all lamp posts through the early hours. Now just need to get on the phone to the council to persuade them to keep the lights on tonight...

 

SK

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NOTHING is nailed on, whether it be for tonight or indeed in to next week...and that works both ways (i.e. no guarantee of rain or snow)

 

Steve is pointing out the possibility via the modelling - as others have done through the day - but it's one of those situations (as ever!) where conditions are so marginal it will be a case of keeping an eye on all lamp posts through the early hours. Now just need to get on the phone to the council to persuade them to keep the lights on tonight...

 

SK

 

If you think it's bad in here, the MOD thread is worse.  Having barely checked it so far today (as promised), I just popped in on the off-chance that it had improved somewhat, and found that someone is arguing the toss with Steve Murr regarding whether there is a cold pool over the UK.

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I wonder when the met office will start putting out warnings again for tomorrow, given Steve's update snow seems nailed on

Nothing is nailed on. First of all there is no guarantee that snow will fall anywhere (it could still be all rain, or snow might be widespread). The second issue is the amount of precipitation which at the moment appears to not be on the heavy side so at the moment I see no need for warnings. Possibly for ice but not much else at this current time.

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North and South downs look like they are going to get pasted, maybe the chilterns too

 

 

LOL  what?

 

Not going to happen

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We had snow here this morning, I didn't get to see it as I was locked away in a warehouse with artificial lighting... but there are still pockets of snow laying around where the sun didn't evaporate it.

For tonight I feel like I am in a relatively ok position being so close to the Chilterns, not going to get my hopes up though.

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Update based on 0z run perhaps. 2.50pm would be early for 12z data wouldnt it.

Disappointing update from the met office. Below is the eastern region one but the national one is similar. Only rather cold and rain or sleet. Somehow I was hoping for better.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Rather cold on Monday and Tuesday with sunny intervals, and the odd wintry shower over East Anglia, and with locally severe overnight frost. Rain or sleet clearing east on Wednesday.

Updated at: 1450 on Sat 17 Jan 2015

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Latest NMM once again shows a mixture of rain/sleet/snow, and shows that there is unlikely to be much precipitation on the system by the time it reaches here:

 

nmm_uk1-1-13-0.png?17-17nmm_uk1-1-14-0.png?17-17nmm_uk1-1-15-0.png?17-17nmm_uk1-1-16-0.png?17-17nmm_uk1-1-17-0.png?17-17nmm_uk1-1-18-0.png?17-17

 

The good news is the bringing forward of the precipitation - with nocturnal cooling just helping to edge a few locations on to the correct side of marginal potentially. Dew points though looking really not very supportive - anything that falls is likely to be rather wet in nature and without some intensity accumulation seems unlikely:

 

nmm_uk1-18-15-0.png?17-17

 

We await the Euro4, but hope for some surprises!

 

SK

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NOTHING is nailed on, whether it be for tonight or indeed in to next week...and that works both ways (i.e. no guarantee of rain or snow)

 

Steve is pointing out the possibility via the modelling - as others have done through the day - but it's one of those situations (as ever!) where conditions are so marginal it will be a case of keeping an eye on all lamp posts through the early hours. Now just need to get on the phone to the council to persuade them to keep the lights on tonight...

 

SK

 

It will not do Captain Shortwave or I much good looking at lamp posts in the early hours, along with most of the Essex contingent as the County Council in their wisdom turn off street lighting at midnight.

 

At the moment I am 20% confident we might have snow, but what I find very fascinating the twists and turns from the models every six hours. If we can receive a good easterly feed of which there are somewhat tentative signs in later charts we could be in for a more exciting spell of weather.

 

Kind regards

 

Dave

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Update based on 0z run perhaps. 2.50pm would be early for 12z data wouldnt it.

Correct using old data... which would be the 6z and the MOGREPS which we have no access to.

If GFS 12z is anything to go by it'll remain cold to very cold with breakdown pushed further out. Not marginal the only scuffer would potentially be dew points, or in the case there was no PPN. Which would be unlikely IMHO.

post-19153-0-99899000-1421514834_thumb.jpost-19153-0-84966200-1421514966_thumb.j

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All the snow warnings that were previously showing for Sunday/Monday and Tuesday in my area have gone this afternoon though the temperatures seem lower -cold but dry ?

Edited by Isabellesnanny

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Slightly off topic, but do the warnings team work at night?

Or would any warnings for SE for tomorrow come in the morning?

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Unfortunately, no warnings = no current risk of disruptive snowfall (see Snowking's) post above.  Just looking too marginal for our corner, but of course previous experience tells us things can change at short notice!

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Last night was the coldest night since joining Net weather! -2.0c :cold: :cold: Tonight could be even colder as it is already only 3.6c.

Edited by lassie23

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Unfortunately the Euro4 is pretty poor for the whole region - barely any precipitation to show and dew points...well:

 

15011806_1712.gif

 

We will need to hope for some nice surprises if we want to see anything wintry. I would say modelling has been wrong in these situations many times before, however the Euro4 did handle the situation this morning rather well at this timeframe.

 

With regards the some of the previous posts re: warnings. At this stage there is nothing hazardous to warn about.

 

SK

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Am i right in saying we 'might' be looking at a week of marginal snow wind ups ?

Yes read the following,

Snow for the SE at the moment from the two fronts crossing Tuesday and Wednesday based on the GEFS remains about 30%. Today's runs around 30-35%, no better for snow chances (0z, 6z & 12z). There are a handful that are not far off giving snow and there are of course three outliers there, that do not even model the slider. Two of the parameters highlighted here:

 

Heights (DAM) attachicon.gifMeteociel_fr_-_Tableaux_GEFS 2.png 850s: attachicon.gifMeteociel_fr_-_Tableaux_GEFS.png

 

Fine margins.

 

So the SE is still in the game for snow but very borderline though still nearly three days to go. The further west or North you live the better the chances, eg 55% Birmingham and Leeds 75%.

This post is more aptly placed here.

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Am i right in saying we 'might' be looking at a week of marginal snow wind ups ?

Far too early to say. It comes back to the same old thing. Get the cold in place then the snow has a chance. The really cold sir hand arrived yet.

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Thanks Mal, Just read Nicks synoptic outlook and theres some maybe's in it.

At least the frosts are likely to happen.

 

Thanks everyone else :)

 

Lovely picture Angelici

Edited by mickeyb44

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Another day, another dollar (down the drain)

Worst cold spell ever

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Another day, another dollar (down the drain)

Worst cold spell ever

Give it a chance eh? ECMWF 96hr & 120hr are good for this region.

post-19153-0-76100200-1421520386_thumb.jpost-19153-0-02443300-1421519947_thumb.j

Edited by Daniel*

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