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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

    Really searching around for some precipitation based on the lasted outputs! The 'snow' on Sunday only looks like clipping Kent at best now

    Looks to cover a little more than just Kent

    15011806_1606.gif

     

    http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/16/basis06/nlnl/prty/15011806_1606.gif

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    Just another link-   The Euro4 model is the one my above post but will add again- For beginners use these 2 - you can just change the timelines with each model run ( some 2 hours after each run it

    The front is now beginning to push in-   Watch out for the dewpoints to start dropping from the SE later in the eve,   There is a LOT of of PPN out in the channel arcing NNE ( NNN - even NNW)  

    You sound like my ex

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    Posted
  • Location: Epping by day/Bexley by night
  • Location: Epping by day/Bexley by night

    Watch the 12z's bring in the upgrades again. I swear the models have got a sense of humour, the 12z's raise expectations, the pub run sends everyone to bed deliriously happy, then the evil 0z's come along and put everyone in a bad mood for the working day.

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    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border

    It's nowherenear that widespread, it literally clips the region

    Obviously subject to change but...

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    Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

    It's nowherenear that widespread, it literally clips the region

    Obviously subject to change but...

    Are you going off the GFS?

     

    Can you post me the chart/link to have a look at please Steve as I'd like to take a look

    Edited by Kent Blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire

    It's nowherenear that widespread, it literally clips the region

    Obviously subject to change but...

     

     

    ..........you can either worry about it, or wait and see what happens.

     

    Either way, the weather will whatever the weather wants.

    fergieweather

    fergieweather
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    Posted A minute ago

    Update re snow prospects in south/Midlands next 24-48 hrs...

    Firstly, the situation tonight-tomorrow AM sees WBFL approx 400m with the showery occlusion moving in from the SW. Radiative cooling will enable snow to penetrate to fairly low levels by Sat AM, albeit patchy 2-4cm accumulations generally above 200m across W Country uplands/moors, probably then extending eastward to give light settling in other areas across to E Anglia.

    The developments for Sunday are tricky re the SE. As it stands, threat of disruptive snow here is only 25%. This is because 00z EC, plus 06z UKMO-GM & E4 all backed-off on potency of cold undercut; moreover they allow most PPN to clear south before sufficient evaporative cooling could also happen... about 30% MOGREPS support a disruptive snow potential, thus current SE warning is predominantly for rain BUT with caveat of ongoing uncertainty re scope of snow potential.

    Finally, I subscribe to Tamara's earlier post. With all forecast emphasis now switching towards colder weather and wintry hazards for at least a few days, it was bemusing to witness such a degree of online wrist-slashing. Equally, I echo her remarks re risk of over-analysing output into medium range in current situation. We have enough issues and operational forecast headaches at T+12 to scope-out, let alone T+120.

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    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border

    Are you going off the GFS?

     

    Can you post me the chart/link to have a look at please Steve as I'd like to take a look

    Fergie just confirmed it on model thread

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Surprises
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL

    Hi Everyone.. I'd like to share a link i have that enables you to see what "has been" in terms of cloud cover and also infra red - a kind of guess at where the weathers going next - Speed up the animation & it's quite hypnotic  :blink2:

     

    Maybe we'll be able to see 'that low' in the bay of biscay going north or south to affect our chances of colder air over our region.. - what ever happens have fun out there :laugh:

     

    here:

     

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Europe/Europe/Infraredcolor/premium.htm

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    Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

    Wise words from Fergie at the end of that post there


    Fergie just confirmed it on model thread

     

    That's regarding snow and not the actual lack of precipitation in Kent...we'll that's how I read it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Watch the 12z's bring in the upgrades again. I swear the models have got a sense of humour, the 12z's raise expectations, the pub run sends everyone to bed deliriously happy, then the evil 0z's come along and put everyone in a bad mood for the working day.

    Sadly it's too late now for this weekend.. The update from fergie has in my view removed our snow chances for Sunday... With it being so close to the event any trend becomes stronger and more difficult to reverse...

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    Posted
  • Location: Epping by day/Bexley by night
  • Location: Epping by day/Bexley by night

    Still after the weekend to play for though, Keep the faith :D

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    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border

    Wise words from Fergie at the end of that post there

     

    That's regarding snow and not the actual lack of precipitation in Kent...we'll that's how I read it.

    Eh?

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    Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

    Really searching around for some precipitation based on the lasted outputs! The 'snow' on Sunday only looks like clipping Kent at best now

    ^^^^^^^

     

    Steve, I originally replying to this post, I.E you seem concerned the lack of precipitation, therefore I'm saying there is precipitation around whether or not it will be snow is a different matter.

     

    Fergie states about the rain so it shows there is juice around in the Region, hence the weather warning.

    Edited by Kent Blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe East
  • Location: High Wycombe East

    Well that was weird - 10 minutes of rain with large snowflakes in it...not really sleet as I know it (i.e small flakes of wet snow) - people in town reporting it too!

     

    All gone now and the sun is out again!

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    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border

    ^^^^^^^

     

    Steve, I originally replying to this post, I.E you seem concerned the lack of precipitation, therefore I'm saying there is precipitation around whether or not it will be snow is a different matter.

     

    Fergie states about the rain so it shows there is juice around in the Region, hence the weather warning.

    It's there but it doesn't do anything other then clip Kent on the latest output.

    Sorry, I'll be quiet while the latest models roll out.

    I really hope we have some positive news re snow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

    Not sure if anyone has posted this yet....

     

    Latest Meto Forecast Summary

     

    Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

    Rain on Sunday may turn to sleet or snow before clearing, leaving Monday and Tuesday drier and brighter. Generally cold through this period with light winds and hard overnight frosts.

    Updated at: 1458 on Fri 16 Jan 2015

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07

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    Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.

    Why is it so dam difficult to get bloody snow in our corner , 2 years and counting , The easterly's keep showing then backing off , it always seems to b in F1.. never actually happening , not of late anyway. Any thing coming from N/N.W Always seems marginal down in our corner without elevation. Unless we can get some real cold down to 2m level than its going to b a wet squib im afraid and I find this just as depressing as the rest of you..

    I do however think the reason it  keeps  getting pushed back is that we could be in for a 91 style FEB....{ scandie high eventually)

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    Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire

    From no-where, there are warnings out from the met office for parts of the East getting between 2-4cm tomorrow. 

     

    According to Carol K this morning, the band of snow/rain/sleet was shown pettering out before it reached us, so this is a surprise bonus, if it happens.

    So, again, just wait and see what happens.

    Edited by Bogman
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Early indications from the main thread are that we are not trending the right way.. I suspect it might be carnage in there soon.. I'm staying here :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

    BBC <<< Not sure when this was last updated, but wanted to post it for reference later/tomorrow

     

    London and South East England

    Forecast Summary
    • Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday

      Remaining cold with further wintry showers and sunny periods. Showers most likely occurring during Sunday, perhaps with some prolonged snow for a time. Widespread overnight frosts, locally severe

    • .http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

    Edited by Kent Blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Most of the precipitation misses us on Sunday according to the 12z GFS.

     

    42-574UK.GIF?16-12

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    Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

    Quite deep LP to the NW

    gfsnh-0-90.png?12

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011612/gfsnh-0-90.png?12

    Edited by Kent Blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

    Sadly, I think my prediction of no lying snow for my area this winter is still on. :(

    Edited by chrisbell-nottheforecaster
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