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Lol, finding the right woman, my ex would certainly have a comment or three on that !

Yeah i know, rollercoaster madness, ive done it before and will undoubtedly do it all again.

 

Great news though, early heads up on ukww about 'possible' convective activity thursday in the south. I shall be checking into that thread

later on with great interest !

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Just another link-   The Euro4 model is the one my above post but will add again- For beginners use these 2 - you can just change the timelines with each model run ( some 2 hours after each run it

The front is now beginning to push in-   Watch out for the dewpoints to start dropping from the SE later in the eve,   There is a LOT of of PPN out in the channel arcing NNE ( NNN - even NNW)  

You sound like my ex

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Interesting time for cold-weather fans approaching.

 

Here's the mean and median of last nights 850hPa, London Heathrow, GEFS 00z run,

 

post-5986-0-15558900-1421228633_thumb.pn

 

By comparing the median and the mean we can get some sort of idea of how 'skewed' the suite of runs is. So, here, where the median is below the mean, we can make the assumption that the suite of runs for that particular time skews towards colder solutions rather than warmer ones. Conversely, if the median is above the mean, the suite of runs skews towards warmer solutions. Essentially, the median gives us, respectively against the mean, a clue to the likelyhood of temperatures falling either side of the mean.

 

It certainly looks promising between the 17th and 21st Jan.

 

:)

Edited by Sparkicle
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nah nothing here, was awake at 6am and had a peak and there was rain drops on the window, so guessing it had been light rain or sleet as the shower had all but passed over. Oh well back to my cave i go until the next snow watch.

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Still MSL gusts in excess of 55kts early tomorrow for far SE, possibly much higher in exposed places, with 950hPa wind very strong indeed

 

post-5986-0-94140000-1421230031_thumb.gipost-5986-0-47189900-1421230139_thumb.gi

 

Height and jet position may really have a significant impact overnight.

Edited by Sparkicle
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Well things seem to be hotting up in terms of snow potential next week (nothing guaranteed of course).

When the respected Fergie from the MO refers to a potential cold outlook as "ominous", in a perverse way I like the sound of that!What is wrong with us snow seekers?

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Did anyone actually get any noteworthy snow yesterday? I was watching the radars last night and cannot work out why there was a warning for snow still in effect up until this morning. Last night at 10pm it was clear that there was going to be a sprinkling at best in our area and most which would not be a danger to property or life. What is concerning is how the met office use their warning system. They increased the area last night for snow risk much further east which is still in effect. I have a friend who has was really excited about snow last night and stayed in as a result of the "incoming snow potential" they now tell me that they will ignore all warnings as they never happen. I am not blaming the meto for the fact it didn't snow as I'm not that bothered but is there a risk that the warning system is posibly at risk of being ignored? I agree that a warning should be in place for ice but the snow warning should have been removed at 10pm. Sorry for my rant I have the upmost respect for the met office but are there any thoughts .... 

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Hi , could someone tell me when these strong winds are coming, is it around 3pm, as my son puts sings and lamp posts up, i would like to give him a warning, are they going to be around 65mph, any info, i would be grateful

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Did anyone actually get any noteworthy snow yesterday? I was watching the radars last night and cannot work out why there was a warning for snow still in effect up until this morning. Last night at 10pm it was clear that there was going to be a sprinkling at best in our area and most which would not be a danger to property or life. What is concerning is how the met office use their warning system. They increased the area last night for snow risk much further east which is still in effect. I have a friend who has was really excited about snow last night and stayed in as a result of the "incoming snow potential" they now tell me that they will ignore all warnings as they never happen. I am not blaming the meto for the fact it didn't snow as I'm not that bothered but is there a risk that the warning system is posibly at risk of being ignored? I agree that a warning should be in place for ice but the snow warning should have been removed at 10pm. Sorry for my rant I have the upmost respect for the met office but are there any thoughts .... 

 

Pretty much, it's a definition's problem. A yellow warning means:

 

Yellow: Be aware. Severe weather is possible over the next few days and could affect you. Yellow means that you should plan ahead thinking about possible travel delays, or the disruption of your day to day activities. The Met Office is monitoring the developing weather situation and Yellow means keep an eye on the latest forecast and be aware that the weather may change or worsen, leading to disruption of your plans in the next few days.

 

It doesn't mean iminent danger of ten foot snow drifts. The MetO have done their job and pointed out that the potential for snow is there, and if it happens, your normal daily routine may well be disrupted.

Hi , could someone tell me when these strong winds are coming, is it around 3pm, as my son puts sings and lamp posts up, i would like to give him a warning, are they going to be around 65mph, any info, i would be grateful

 

For far SE, strongest winds look likely at 3am. Should pass through quickly (maybe 3-4 hrs) as is associated with a front

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Thank you Sparkicle, well i know he wont be up lamp posts that time of night, well unless hes doing something he shouldn't be  :crazy: , i wont warn him then.

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The BBC weather graphics on the website have snow symbol for my location on Sunday morning  :rofl:  :yahoo:

Same for us here on BBC and MO! Been best part of two years since I've seen the symbol never mind the actual stuff fall from the sky!

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Same for us here on BBC and MO! Been best part of two years since I've seen the symbol never mind the actual stuff fall from the sky!

Don't want to dampen your spirits but last night I had snow symbols on my BBC & Meto Phone Apps between 5am and 7am.... I got nothing LOL  :sorry:  :friends:..However they were updated 12hrs ahead of expected so the fact this is 4 days away still might be a good sign lol

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Not for one minute saying this is going to be another 1987 but i just wonder how similar one of these maps would of looked like back then???

 

15011421_1406.gif

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/14/basis06/ukuk/uv85/15011421_1406.gif

 

850hPa is probably a little high for large scale synoptic impact; but you never can tell. The 950hPa, for obvious reasons, is much more likely to easily get to ground.

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It should survive albeit slightly smaller, this is the best chance if you want to see some flakes, very disappointed tbh. The threat of snow was overdone big time, but by looking at latest euro4 you can see why. We've had no ppn at all. Edit it's not looking good for that blob.

The blob died Daniel, next week is looking good for proper snow from the N/NE/E none of this marginally crud....Better cover myself with an allegedly as we know how disobedient the British weather can be.

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While the current models don't show our region getting much while the rest of the country has all the fun remember a couple of years back what happened in Jan/Feb.

The models showed a similar thing, north and west all getting pummelled while we got nothing, problem is once the snow is lying over a vast swathe of the country everything changes and because the snow keeps the air colder it spreads.

We ended up with a nice coating then despite the models prior showing nothing.

Best shot of the winter so far.

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Did anyone actually get any noteworthy snow yesterday? I was watching the radars last night and cannot work out why there was a warning for snow still in effect up until this morning. Last night at 10pm it was clear that there was going to be a sprinkling at best in our area and most which would not be a danger to property or life. What is concerning is how the met office use their warning system. They increased the area last night for snow risk much further east which is still in effect. I have a friend who has was really excited about snow last night and stayed in as a result of the "incoming snow potential" they now tell me that they will ignore all warnings as they never happen. I am not blaming the meto for the fact it didn't snow as I'm not that bothered but is there a risk that the warning system is posibly at risk of being ignored? I agree that a warning should be in place for ice but the snow warning should have been removed at 10pm. Sorry for my rant I have the upmost respect for the met office but are there any thoughts .... 

I think they thought the channel storms were going to be further north, hopefully this doesn't mean tonight's storm will be further south too.

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theres nothing worse than seeing the rest of the country with snow and us in south-east watching with jealousy,even worse when the south-west have loads,been let down many times before,so until its falling out of the sky,im not getting excited,yer right!!.why is it so difficult to get snow in our part of the world

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Not for one minute saying this is going to be another 1987 but i just wonder how similar one of these maps would of looked like back then???

 

15011421_1406.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/14/basis06/ukuk/uv85/15011421_1406.gif

Unless a short wave develops that they think is headed for France but end's up really spinning up and heads into the midlands instead, no where near.

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Looks like we will see a band of very heavy and squally rain pushing through our region, likely during the early hours. An inch or so of rain are possible in a fairly short space of time. Couple that with 50-60mph gusts in land and possibly up to 75mph on the south coast and parts of the Kent/East Anglia. Going to be a rough night.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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