Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

[Methuselah]

I forgot to say: today we had our first snow for 21 months!

[Essexgooner]

Showers burst into life at 9.45pm, Chelmsford and Colchester in the firing line....probably be rain mind you, haha......... saying that its all to far north to where I am  

Edited January 17, 2015 by Essexgooner

[legrandefromage]

Raining! Har de har!

[throwoff]

Dewpoint in Gillingham moving between 1 and 0 all the time..

[Biggin]

BBC Weather  poor if its snow youre after.

[stewfox]

Light drizzle here

[Captain Shortwave]

So slidergate according to the Metoffice

Wednesday

Light and variable winds

The chart shows a cut-off low developing and the trough disrupts through the UK. We also see an occluded front clearing the east coast. So a band of rain, sleet and snow will clear to leave a drier afternoon. Given the slack flow, then I expect a lot of low cloud and murk.

Temperatures - 3-5C

 

Thursday

Moderate north westerly wind

Early rain, sleet and snow will clear to leave a brighter day with sunshine and a few showers. At this point these may still be a little wintry.

Temperatures - 4-6C

 

Treat both days with great uncertainty. Especially as the models still differ greatly, the FAX/UKMO output does not suggest an easterly developing, but this differs to the latest GFS output

 

More runs needed on this marginal, wintry mess.

[snowking]

Last one from me tonight.

 

18z NMM shifts things a little further S and E across the region:

 

 

As has been said many times this evening, surprises are not out of the question!

 

SK

[Met4Cast]

Last one from me tonight.

 

18z NMM shifts things a little further S and E across the region:

 

 

As has been said many times this evening, surprises are not out of the question!

 

SK

 

The second chart is making me want to jump around the room screaming with joy.. 

 

Interestingly NetWx-SR model has the PPN more patchy and as sleet. Such a difference at just a few hours out

 

Edited January 17, 2015 by Daniel Smith

[Whether Idle]

Snow chances tomorrow (yes slim, yes, probably nothing, but chances nonetheless) - a broad swathe of Chilterns, North Downs of Surrey and Kent tomorrow morning before 7am maybe a couple of centimetres, maybe a bit more...

 

Second possibility is very localised- a channel runner could clip into coastal Kent and east Sussex so Tamara-ville (Fairlight) then Hawkinge nr Folkestoneand Whitfield nr Dover hills above 120m and close to the coast, poss up to 5cms if the streamer comes that little bit more onshore.

 

As I say, all just small chances but chances nonetheless.

Edited January 17, 2015 by Whether Idle

[SMU]

Hi Daniel / SK

 

wait to see what the lastest Euro 4 plots for 06z tomorrow @ T12.

 

Just skirting around the region the showers are now turning to snow in the NW midlands so getting cold enough dewpoints etc is just about ok for 06z tomorrow...

D

[Met4Cast]

Hi Daniel / SK

 

wait to see what the lastest Euro 4 plots for 06z tomorrow @ T12.

 

Just skirting around the region the showers are now turning to snow in the NW midlands so getting cold enough dewpoints etc is just about ok for 06z tomorrow...

D

 

Isn't tomorrows main snow risk due before the Euro4 06z comes out though? The NMM SK posted is for 7am

[lemonslap]

Temp dropped to 0.6C here about 1 hour ago and holding, dew point however hasn't lowered beyond this. Forecasted temp for now is 3C, colder the better!

[Daniel*]

Wintery mix looking at the lamp post with snow flake thrown in. Hard to tell.

[alexisj9]

Temp here 3.7 dp 2.4

[steveinsussex]

for those of your north of london, i really hope you get some settling snow

 

The rest of us will cry into our rivers of rain

[Whether Idle]

Temp here 3.7 dp 2.4

If you're after some snow then best chance is somewhere like Hawkinge or Capel where with some evaporative cooling and a bit of luck with heavy precip from a channel runner you never know..

[Daniel*]

Last one from me tonight.

 

18z NMM shifts things a little further S and E across the region:

 

 

As has been said many times this evening, surprises are not out of the question!

 

SK

London might get a good temporary covering going by NMM, definitely not out the question, will be watching developments closely, it has took my focus. It might go all out & steal the show - or it may be a sinking ship!

[John Snow]

How reliable is NMM? It seems out on a limb compared with Euro4 and NW's model

[SMU]

The euro 4 has just updated- no snow in the raw output out to 24...

 

S

[Jax]

Raining here now

[Met4Cast]

How reliable is NMM? It seems out on a limb compared with Euro4 and NW's model

 

So we have three high resolution models all showing something completely different within the 12hr timeframe.. Brilliant. Basically, look out your window and hope for the best 

[Daniel*]

The euro 4 has just updated- no snow in the raw output out to 24...

 

S

To be fair E4 messed up wednesday morning... my only concern is dew points - we really need these to take a fall and fast.

[Captain Shortwave]

Euro 4 shows all rain pretty much.

Netweather radar is seeing the showers starting to turn wintry in the west, also in the showers over Cambridgeshire and Northamptonshire at this moment. Who knows. Rain over here and the London are at the moment.

Edited January 17, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Met4Cast]

What time do we think the PPN will be arriving in our area tomorrow? I want to set an alarm just incase the NMM does have it right..