Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[Cheese Rice]

Sure thing!!Its simply too warm further south. To be honest its pretty marginal further north anyway, which is why no one has got particularly excited. The system is developing in warm air and running into not particularly cold air. End result = Rainfest.See 850s below. Well above zero in the south. #http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=48&code=0&mode=1&runpara=1

It was exciting when it showing deep snow for Northern England sigh....

Hopefully the models push it north, such short changes are pretty common in this situation.

You only need to look as early as last week when the precipitation was a good 30+ miles further north.

[john mac]

Sure thing!!Its simply too warm further south. To be honest its pretty marginal further north anyway, which is why no one has got particularly excited. The system is developing in warm air and running into not particularly cold air. End result = Rainfest.See 850s below. Well above zero in the south. #http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=48&code=0&mode=1&runpara=1

Cheers for that mate

[Jason M]

It was exciting when it showing deep snow for Northern England sigh....

Hopefully the models push it north, such short changes are pretty common in this situation.

You only need to look as early as last week when the precipitation was a good 30+ miles further north.

Tbh, even if goes North, a large amount of elevation looks necessary to me. Last weeks snow was marginal and IMHO this would be even more marginal. This system is going to be packed full of warm air because of where it developed.

[mountain shadow]

Well at least we get something later on

At 14 days out, there is little hope as of yet for this to trend to something significant. The day 8 charts from the op and parallel are really bad for those who like cold with a massive black/purple blob over Greenland and a strong west to south westerly flow.

Both GFS old and GFS P offering a toppler around 14 days time, this may be our sole reward for the Strat warming in the Greenland area just now, better than nothing of course, but a damn site short of what the pre-winter expectations were.

[Carlrg]

Wow, looks like the Alps is going to get another pasting. Saturday night through to Monday Eve.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluearmy]

Both GFS old and GFS P offering a toppler around 14 days time, this may be our sole reward for the Strat warming in the Greenland area just now, better than nothing of course, but a damn site short of what the pre-winter expectations were.

The warming and split strat mirrored in the trop this week MS. That toppler has nowt to do with the warming. these are strange times in the strat/trop dynamic. I feel the trop is driving the game.

[snowblues]

I know it's the the very late end of Fl on the gfs tonight but with a nice area of high pressure in the Atlantic heading up in to the Greenland,with the majority of the polor vortex away from Canada maybe more than just a northern toppler.Somthing to get an eye on IF it's still there in the future.

[Daniel*]

Carlrg I personally do not give a 'monkeys' about the Alps and I'm sure I'm not alone, however yes I understand some do, this is a UK orientated MOD thread, there's more appropriate places for the above such as here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81729-the-alps-snow-thread-season-20142015/ Sorry to be the Gruffalo but its nothing out the blue for them, with their altitude and continentally it really has no bearing over here. It just builds up bitterness to be truthful. It feels like we've run a marathon already...

[Blue max 90]

I know it's the the very late end of Fl on the gfs tonight but with a nice area of high pressure in the Atlantic heading up in to the Greenland,with the majority of the polor vortex away from Canada maybe more than just a northern toppler.Somthing to get an eye on IF it's still there in the future.

I spotted that. OP, Para and Control all showing height rises of sorts pushing towards Greenland with cold coming in from the North. Perhaps a developing signal? See if it is there in the morning! Here's hoping... :/

[Jason M]

Carlrg I personally do not give a 'monkeys' about the Alps and I'm sure I'm not alone, however yes I understand some do, this is a UK orientated MOD thread, there's more appropriate places for the above such as here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81729-the-alps-snow-thread-season-20142015/ Sorry to be the Gruffalo but its nothing out the blue for them, with their altitude and continentally it really has no bearing over here. It just builds up bitterness to be truthful. It feels like we've run a marathon already...

Doesn't say UK in the thread title. Perhaps you could set out some examples of what we are allowed to post? Is it okay to refer to the PV over Greenland?

If it doesn't interest you why not just ignore rather than be rude? Would you like someone to respond to you like that? perhaps if your feeling bitter, you best take a break.

Anyway, back on topic GEFS are similar yet again. More emphasis though on a period of warmth around days 8-10, with some taking on a Spanish Plume feel. Re the Alps, they may need the snow as there are some very warm uppers predicted from a fair number of GEFS. See below.... not often you see 850s of 18c near SE France in January! Record breaking if that happens.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=19&ech=216&mode=1&carte=0

Edited January 2, 2015 by Jason M

[Blue max 90]

I spotted that. OP, Para and Control all showing height rises of sorts pushing towards Greenland with cold coming in from the North. Perhaps a developing signal? See if it is there in the morning! Here's hoping... :/

I spotted that. OP, Para and Control all showing height rises of sorts pushing towards Greenland with cold coming in from the North. Perhaps a developing signal? See if it is there in the morning! Here's hoping... :/

Also some backing from the GEFS Ensemble members late on, a definite dip away with mean falling towards -5. The ECM ensemble late into FI also shows a trend to colder with a definite cluster below 5c. Trends! Edited January 2, 2015 by Blue max 90

[mountain shadow]

The warming and split strat mirrored in the trop this week MS. That toppler has nowt to do with the warming. these are strange times in the strat/trop dynamic. I feel the trop is driving the game.

Well, I'm confused BlueArmy, are you saying there is no down welling at all from the Strat? and that any possible toppler scenarios are purely Trop driven?

[Mucka]

http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z

The WMO dataset we follow.

 

What a great link, thank you.

So it seems ECM (00z especially) is king whether it is Pole, N america or N hemisphere and that includes out to day 10. (assuming I am reading it right)

Edited January 2, 2015 by Mucka

[Daniel*]

Doesn't say UK in the thread title. Perhaps you could set out some examples of what we are allowed to post? Is it okay to refer to the PV over Greenland?If it doesn't interest you why not just ignore rather than be rude? Would you like someone to respond to you like that? perhaps if your feeling bitter, you best take a break.Anyway, back on topic GEFS are similar yet again. More emphasis though on a period of warmth around days 8-10, with some taking on a Spanish Plume feel. Re the Alps, they may need the snow as there are some very warm uppers predicted from a fair number of GEFS. See below.... not often you see 850s of 18c near SE France in January! Record breaking if that happens.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=19&ech=216&mode=1&carte=0

I think you are digging far too deep when it is blatantly obvious - I'm not talking about the dynamics or whatever you call it if you was to say WAA was surging towards Greenland, it will have ramifications for the UK, I do not expect a weather report. The state that snow is falling in the Alps why should it have any weight-bearing in here, if they receive 50cm to 200cm it will ultimately have no affect on our weather will it? some snow PPN charts what good do they do for us, nought - it has no consequence for the UK -you are very quick to judge.

Rather perplexed by your response Jason to me you are coming across as abrasive, when I had no intention to cause disrepute - I gave him guidance and the relevant links, yes in theory they can be posted in here but really of little relevance to us all, when we have a whole thread dedicated to what he contributed. Sorry carl in hindsight I should have been more subtle and to all if I was blunt. I'd like to move on from this I never meant to start WW3. I thought I was helping out :-) note to self stay clear when in doubt. Keep up the good work.

Edited January 2, 2015 by Daniel*

[weather_it_will]

Also some backing from the GEFS Ensemble members late on, a definite dip away with mean falling towards -5. The ECM ensemble late into FI also shows a trend to colder with a definite cluster below 5c. Trends!

Anything showing late in FI is a waste of time if it's trends you are looking for, as the error at that range is off the scale.

[Bonjangle]

Get 2 Grips , it is only the 2nd day of Jan ... Another 2 months of winter ..Do not follow computer models , They are not the best ever to look at , Fax are the best , i swear down on them UKMO is the one to Follow .... Frack the others , i know the score but will not tell anyone in here as when i have said what will happen my post gets booted .... COLD IS COMING !!! Listen to me and the Met man !! :yahoo:k

[Roger J Smith]

I have some research-related reasons for thinking this may be the case, but just the subjective look of these model runs is in the general theme of 2-3 weeks away from pattern change. Looks like a jet that could drop further south and undercut a developing block. But short term it's a raging zonal pattern. Main question is whether any short wave digs enough to produce a windstorm. The days around 7th and 11th appear best placed for that. North America currently about to open floodgates for arctic outflow but if that began to interact with retrograde signals it could lead to a fast flip to a colder pattern for western Europe.

[Diegus Vessella]

Hi pleasure Diego 28 years I am passionate about weather. I am writing to seek information and exchanges of ideas. In Italy the weather and 'very poor as now everything ... That's why I try foreign forum .. I apologize for my poor English .. According to the Southern Europe what will you meet? In Italy already talking about winter ended

[TEITS]

Hi pleasure Diego 28 years I am passionate about weather. I am writing to seek information and exchanges of ideas. In Italy the weather and 'very poor as now everything ... That's why I try foreign forum .. I apologize for my poor English .. According to the Southern Europe what will you meet? In Italy already talking about winter ended

Welcome to the forum. Nice to see a fellow Italian as my father was born in Palermo, Sicily.

 

Very few positives to take from the output this morning except a few tiny hints towards the end of the GEFS members.

 

A few colder members developing.

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150102/00/t850Aberdeenshire.png

 

Hints of pressure rising across Iceland after the mean drops to 980mb.

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150102/00/prmslReyjavic.png

Edited January 2, 2015 by TEITS

[fergieweather]

Well, I'm confused BlueArmy, are you saying there is no down welling at all from the Strat? and that any possible toppler scenarios are purely Trop driven?

Latest UKMO diagnostics continue to show *tentative* and still low confidence signs of zonality waning towards end of 10-15d period. They attribute this signal, albeit still weak, to a consequence of stratospheric warming. Meanwhile, EC (like MOGREPS and NCEP, as Nick posted last eve) runs current MJO Phase 4 through to 5-6 in next 5-10 days. Some ENS members run through to 7 later (15+d) but inconclusively for now. Either way, overall story remains as before: high confidence for zonal into forseeable (trend period) but continuing signs of this possibly waning later in the month.

Edited January 2, 2015 by fergieweather

[knocker]

The EC32 anomalies this morning show no major change up to FEB, After intially intensifying the HP on the eastern seaboard it reverts to Hudson low and weak trough Iceland south. So surface analysis maintains low pressure to NW/N and HP to the SW/S and the general zonality with temps hovering around average.

 

This post is probably superfluous as Fergie and Nick  have already posted,

Edited January 2, 2015 by knocker

[Dorset_Weather]

Get 2 Grips , it is only the 2nd day of Jan ... Another 2 months of winter ..Do not follow computer models , They are not the best ever to look at , Fax are the best , i swear down on them UKMO is the one to Follow .... Frack the others , i know the score but will not tell anyone in here as when i have said what will happen my post gets booted .... COLD IS COMING !!! Listen to me and the Met man !! :yahoo:k

Gets my vote for post of the week, im not surprised you get shot down for telling everyone to ignore the models in a model related chat forum.......go figure!

[IDO]

D10 charts from the big 3: 

 

You see the problem. Even when there are differences with how the PV interacts within the pattern, we cannot escape the general theme of Atlantic driven zonal weather. That is why the level of uncertainty is low when the driver is the trop PV. On the ground there will be subtle differences including intensity and timing and where the wettest flow is but overall winter is on hold for a couple of weeks.

 

As was showing up yesterday, from around D14 the PV is losing it's focus. The Control for instance:

 

 

It is now up to a 33% cluster, so although usual caveats with FI at that distance, mid-Jan remains a possibility for the Atlantic (PV) to relent enough for some amplification in our sector. Too early to say whether that could lead to any worthwhile blocking. The London 850's graph hints at the signal for something colder at the end of the run:

 

 

The GEFS have been very good at picking up changes including the upcoming zonal spell so I am hopeful of changes mid month.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Today should be quite a bright, breezy, and chilly day for places as the models program a cool North-Westerly flow over the country. There will be some showers, some of which could be wintry over high-ground, towards North-Western areas. Maybe some sleetiness to lower levels during the meatier showers. Some of these showers likely to continue over Northern areas during the night with some sleet and snow over the Scottish mountains. Quite a chilly night for numerous places.

The models then show a shallow Low tracking Eastwards over Southern Britain from the West during tomorrow. This bringing a spell of wet weather over Southern areas (perhaps extending towards Northern Britain). The exact track of this wave feature is still a little uncertain and consequently could affect exactly which areas could see some sleet and snow....

But I think anywhere from around North Midlands Northwards could see something wintry (and also the areas most likely to be on the Northern flank of the Low). The far South likely to experience milder temperatures from this system with the likelihood of the Southern counties being on the Southern flank of the Low. The far North looking to experience mostly dry conditions.

A ridge of High Pressure from the West will keep things dry and bright for places on Sunday, though maybe a little cloudier towards the North-West. Should be quite a chilly day and night for places too. Some frost and fog possible during Sunday night too.

Afterwards, it still seems likely a mobile, Atlantic, Westerly dominated outlook will take over for places with a mixture of warmer and cooler Westerly flows. Most disturbed weather conditions likely towards the North-West. More changeable and generally less cold over Southern areas.

As for the Early Bird Cold Chart of the day, this award goes to the GFS Paralell run in FI...

Edited January 2, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine

[bluearmy]

Well, I'm confused BlueArmy, are you saying there is no down welling at all from the Strat? and that any possible toppler scenarios are purely Trop driven?

A brief toppler - yes MS, I would say that's trop driven. My view of the trop strat relationship is that there is a current close connect with the split strat and trop vortex's in tandem. thereafter, the strat takes a single vortex to Greenland/ne Canada as per the trop.

the upper/mid strat then continues to mimic the trop with a strong westerly flow into a e scandi/w Russian trough. The upper strat more pronounced with the Atlantic high. If we are to see a downwelling later in the month of the upper strat pattern then it will be to see the Azores ridge displaced further north into the Atlantic. Perhaps this is what Exeter are seeing on their extended modelling as zonality would fade with this feature pushing north.

I wouldn't, though, discount anything developing through week 2 which, depending on what emerged, could be seen to be strat influenced.