Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[Jason M]

GEFS rolling out and some difference now appearing from say 168 - 180. The chart below caught my eye.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=20&ech=180&mode=0&carte=0

 

Not sure we will benefit on this run, but perhaps enough in this set of gefs to just raise half an eyebrow

[Duane S.]

well....

i did pop in to ask some opinions regarding the ECM at day 9 and 10. however, reading through the last couple of pages i doubt anyone is either in a frame of mind or sensible enough to give a reasonable answer.

 

here's the charts anyway-

 

 

 

the clue is the mid atlantic movement of a "shortwave". looks odd to me.

 

argue erm  discuss at your leisure....

I noticed this when viewing the run earlier. Even though on the face of it there is little to cheer about on the EC 12z, that trough disruption at the tail end of the run does infer the possibility of ridging up ahead of it. It may be gone by tomorrow but then again, maybe not.

I stand by my comment made earlier on today that given the warming and wave2 activity due up in the strat shortly, eye candy FI trop charts are just around the corner. Now whether they verify of course is a completely different matter...

Also, agree with comments made by some posters today. The standard of posting is worst I have ever seen it on here at the moment. Seriously, if you are going to have a hissy fit every time the charts go through a spell of showing 'poor' output, either move to Siberia or find another hobby, it is ruining what is otherwise the best forum on the internet.

[Rocheydub]

So in simplistic terms… For those of us SACRA wannabeees… I'm encouraged by the modeled pacific ridge, and the draining of the deep colours over Greenland, to some lighter blues, and a ridge building "somewhat" in the atlantic…. That's about it really! A classic "H" cross polar flow in the making??

 

Is that straw clutching? Sorry, can't post charts from this laptop, the screen is cracked (thanks son) right where I don't need it!!!

 

Edited December 28, 2014 by Rocheydub
To move topic on.

[Duane S.]

Hmmm, very interesting. Running through the GEFS, at around D10 the EP ridge is there in all its glory as expected and its influence our side is pretty muted, run the bias corrected charts (and this example is typical across the members), this...

Becomes this...

Edit: ignore the above! (like we should have done in the first place when it came out?) Wrong date on the chart, didn't spot it when posting.

That aside, the 18z still a pretty good set of ens all in all though.

Edited December 28, 2014 by s4lancia

[blizzard81]

I noticed this when viewing the run earlier. Even though on the face of it there is little to cheer about on the EC 12z, that trough disruption at the tail end of the run does infer the possibility of ridging up ahead of it. It may be gone by tomorrow but then again, maybe not.

I stand by my comment made earlier on today that given the warming and wave2 activity due up in the strat shortly, eye candy FI trop charts are just around the corner. Now whether they verify of course is a completely different matter...

Also, agree with comments made by some posters today. The standard of posting is worst I have ever seen it on here at the moment. Seriously, if you are going to have a hissy fit every time the charts go through a spell of showing 'poor' output, either move to Siberia or find another hobby, it is ruining what is otherwise the best forum on the internet.

With regards to your last paragraph, you are the umpteenth member on here to say the same thing. I don't see many outlandish comments on here tonight. Believe me, I have been a member and an onlooker for over 10 years and I have seen some terrible episodes on this forum. All I have seen tonight is people being realistic and saying exactly what the models are showing. There have only been two annoying aspects about some posts tonight. First is the denial by some members of what the models are actually showing and the second is the sort of comments similar to those made in your last paragraph. It is these comments that bring the forum down. Please stop gfuqhgfpjhing, let people post their interpretation of the model output, even if you don't agree with it. Live and let live.

[Jason M]

Hmmm, very interesting. Running through the GEFS, at around D10 the EP ridge is there in all its glory as expected and its influence our side is pretty muted, run the bias corrected charts (and this example is typical across the members), this...

image.jpg

Becomes this...

image.jpg

 

 

Those charts are dated on 19th Dec. I nearly got caught out with that a few days ago. They haven't been updating.

 

Got a laugh at how wrong they turned out though :smiliz19:

[Duane S.]

Those charts are dated on 19th Dec. I nearly got caught out with that a few days ago. They haven't been updating.

 

Got a laugh at how wrong they turned out though :smiliz19:

Yep, just spotted that myself! Thought that was way too good to be true :-) They must have stopped running the BC version a few days ago then. Ah well back to drawing board.

[Polar Maritime]

 Let people post their interpretation of the model output, even if you don't agree with it. Live and let live.

 

On that note, Let's please move on.

[Mucka]

Well the 18z Op and its ensembles are the best run for a while, even if it is some way from where we need to be.

There is certainly more amplification creeping into the pattern and even tiny  hints of the cross polar ridge Tamara believes unlikely due to feedback signals and indeed any ridging is still swept away more or less.

It is just one run as well and no way to know if this is the start of a better trend.

Let's hope it continues into tomorrow and gets some cross model support so we at least have a straw or two in the nearer term.

Edited December 28, 2014 by Mucka

[SylvainTV]

Those charts are dated on 19th Dec. I nearly got caught out with that a few days ago. They haven't been updating.

 

Got a laugh at how wrong they turned out though :smiliz19:

 

Hehe oops, no updating because of the NCEP issues of last week, I will fix that tonight Good thing that you noticed

[kumquat]

Even in Bristol, I just stepped outside and it is frickking freeezing!! Probs down to minus 4 or 5 tonight. There's no minus six 850s anywhere in the GFS output for us in the southwest, but that can change on the next run. If we're going by instinct, I'll be checking out TEITS's and SMs posts. They have a knack for what the models are and are not doing correctly. OldManMet also, love his posts. Talking of instinct there's a definite sniff of something cold in the air. I wouldn't be surprised if we see models swinging to cold very quickly over the next couple of days.

[Frosty.]

GFS 18z brings a very wintry spell to the north during early January, this would not be run of da mill janvier fayre.:-)

[Snow Queen one]

SACRA doors will open up when there is a good chance of a good cold spell. The club room has been closed for too long. I am looking forward to greeting all new members in 2015.

SQ1

[Duane S.]

Hehe oops, no updating because of the NCEP issues of last week, I will fix that tonight Good thing that you noticed

Cheers Sylvain, I assumed it was not being run at the moment. Any chance you can make them look as good as the chart I mistakenly posted?

[Duane S.]

Even in Bristol, I just stepped outside and it is frickking freeezing!! Probs down to minus 4 or 5 tonight. There's no minus six 850s anywhere in the GFS output for us in the southwest, but that can change on the next run. If we're going by instinct, I'll be checking out TEITS's and SMs posts. They have a knack for what the models are and are not doing correctly. OldManMet also, love his posts. Talking of instinct there's a definite sniff of something cold in the air. I wouldn't be surprised if we see models swinging to cold very quickly over the next couple of days.

Amen to that. I had ice on my windscreen at 2:30pm this afternoon and look at my location!

[Jason M]

GEFS are zonal out to the end. I'm a little less inclined to believe them this time though as looking at the NH view the PV is getting hammered on some of the runs, yet every single one goes zonal? I'd expect some scatter!!!!

 

 

Edit: Yep noted PM. I'm cool with that :-)

Edited December 29, 2014 by Jason M
To move topic on.

[Nick F]

So in simplistic terms… For those of us SACRA wannabeees… I'm encouraged by the modeled pacific ridge, and the draining of the deep colours over Greenland, to some lighter blues, and a ridge building "somewhat" in the atlantic…. That's about it really! A classic "H" cross polar flow in the making??

 

Is that straw clutching? Sorry, can't post charts from this laptop, the screen is cracked (thanks son) right where I don't need it!!!

The arctic high is kinda a straw to clutch for now, because of the stubborn cold vortex and its low heights over Greenland and Baffin. Also what's also not helping is that although we're seeing a pattern change a long way upstream with the -EPO ridge over Alaska, and subsequent Arctic high, the EPO ridge is being undercut by a strong Pacific jet which is keeping the flow zonal over N America, preventing deep cold over Canada escaping south and buckling the jet to allow Atlantic ridges north. Until we see this happen, the Arctic high on its own is a wild card. Ideally we need both cross polar Arctic high and amplification of the Atlantic jet to get us on the road to sustained cold,

[Jason M]

Hehe oops, no updating because of the NCEP issues of last week, I will fix that tonight Good thing that you noticed

 

I'd leave them. I'd forgotten what northern blocking looks like

[Frosty.]

GEFS 18z mean is shaping up to be pretty cold further north during first half of Jan, cold enough for snow rather than rain, unsettled everywhere but temperatures closer to average in the south.

[kumquat]

By the way, that ECM 120 - 144 isn't a done deal yet.

 

 

Slightly different timing on the vortex spoiler and things take a totally different turn.

[John Snow]

Anything beyond +96 is FI now so no point getting excited about what might occur 10 days + time, the models got the low at the weekend wrong even the day before, it was much further north than predicted so while eye candy is nice it is pointless getting excited atm

[The Eagle]

UKMO has well and truely punctured the jet at 144hrs sending height rises north in contrast to the 00z GFS. 

 

[Whether Idle]

ECM shows a surge of mild air penetrating deep into northern Europe in 3 days time:

[johnholmes]

ECM shows a surge of mild air penetrating deep into northern Europe in 3 days time:

 

or, one could say a burst of very cold air pushing way south from eastern europe into N Africa?

[Frosty.]

ECM shows a surge of mild air penetrating deep into northern Europe in 3 days time:

aww I feel sorry for them, they can share our pain.