Boxing Day Snow Event Thoughts And Reports.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Wunderground showing a wintry mix over the chilterns/cotswolds, how accurate this is, I dont know. It does feel sharply cold outside in North Cambridgeshire though! Hoping for the best and will nowcast the situation as the day goes on.

[Mark Neal.]

Sleety rain in heavier bursts here looks like back to rain now. Temp up to 4c.

[Static Prevails]

Things are looking promising here.

[Will Padz]

Temp 1c dew 0c sky looks snowy.... Hoping in next 3-4 hours might have some flakes falling....

[ChezWeather]

Matlock forecast 70% chance of snow tonight, Chesterfield only 35%. Amazing what a few miles and a bit of height can do. 

 

Still feeling confident of a drunken walk home in the snow however!

[Nick F]

Birmingham Intl Airport TAF going for snow between 17z today and 05z Sat:

 

EGBB 261102Z 2612/2712 20005KT 9999 SCT030 BECMG 2614/2617 14010KT 6000 RA BKN007 PROB40 TEMPO 2615/2617 3000 RASN BKN004 TEMPO 2617/2705 0800 SN VV/// BECMG 2620/2623 02010KT BECMG 2705/2708 32007KT 9999 NSW FEW020 PROB30 TEMPO 2711/2712 5000 -SHRASN BKN009

 

Manchester Airport snow between 18z today and 2am Saturday

 

EGCC 261102Z 2612/2718 18005KT 9999 SCT025 BECMG 2616/2618 8000 -RA BKN012 BECMG 2618/2621 09010KT TEMPO 2618/2702 4000 RASN BKN007 PROB30 TEMPO 2618/2702 1200 SN BKN002 BECMG 2700/2703 35005KT 9999 NSW FEW012 TEMPO 2708/2718 4000 SHRASN BKN009

 

London Luton and Stansted Airports also snow between midnight and 3am:

 

EGGW 261057Z 2612/2712 21006KT 9999 SCT030 BECMG 2615/2618 12012KT 7000 RA BKN006 PROB40 TEMPO 2621/2624 14015G25KT 1200 +RA RASN BKN002 BECMG 2623/2702 01012KT -RA TEMPO 2700/2708 03015G25KT 1800 RASN BKN003 PROB30 TEMPO 2700/2703 0800 SN BKN001 BECMG 2709/2712 9999 NSW FEW010 SCT035

 

EGSS 261211Z 2612/2718 21005KT 9000 SCT030 BECMG 2612/2615 9999 BECMG 2616/2619 13012KT 7000 RA BKN008 PROB30 TEMPO 2621/2624 14015G25KT 1200 +RA RASN BKN003 BECMG 2623/2702 01012KT -RA TEMPO 2700/2709 03015G25KT 2000 RASN BKN004 PROB30 TEMPO 2700/2703 0800 SN BKN001 BECMG 2709/2712 9999 NSW FEW010 SCT035 TEMPO 2712/2718 3000 SHRASN BKN008

Edited December 26, 2014 by Nick F

[Dibdabbers]

Just started raining in west mids

[farmeryellow]

Wunderground showing a wintry mix over the chilterns/cotswolds, how accurate this is, I dont know. It does feel sharply cold outside in North Cambridgeshire though! Hoping for the best and will nowcast the situation as the day goes on.

Hi,

Just light rain and and a temp and dew point 3deg

[snowking]

Birmingham Intl Airport TAF going for snow between 17z today and 05z Sat:

 

EGBB 261102Z 2612/2712 20005KT 9999 SCT030 BECMG 2614/2617 14010KT 6000 RA BKN007 PROB40 TEMPO 2615/2617 3000 RASN BKN004 TEMPO 2617/2705 0800 SN VV/// BECMG 2620/2623 02010KT BECMG 2705/2708 32007KT 9999 NSW FEW020 PROB30 TEMPO 2711/2712 5000 -SHRASN BKN009

 

Manchester Airport snow between 18z today and 2am Saturday

 

EGCC 261102Z 2612/2718 18005KT 9999 SCT025 BECMG 2616/2618 8000 -RA BKN012 BECMG 2618/2621 09010KT TEMPO 2618/2702 4000 RASN BKN007 PROB30 TEMPO 2618/2702 1200 SN BKN002 BECMG 2700/2703 35005KT 9999 NSW FEW012 TEMPO 2708/2718 4000 SHRASN BKN009

 

London Luton and Stansted Airports also snow between midnight and 3am:

 

EGGW 261057Z 2612/2712 21006KT 9999 SCT030 BECMG 2615/2618 12012KT 7000 RA BKN006 PROB40 TEMPO 2621/2624 14015G25KT 1200 +RA RASN BKN002 BECMG 2623/2702 01012KT -RA TEMPO 2700/2708 03015G25KT 1800 RASN BKN003 PROB30 TEMPO 2700/2703 0800 SN BKN001 BECMG 2709/2712 9999 NSW FEW010 SCT035

 

EGSS 261211Z 2612/2718 21005KT 9000 SCT030 BECMG 2612/2615 9999 BECMG 2616/2619 13012KT 7000 RA BKN008 PROB30 TEMPO 2621/2624 14015G25KT 1200 +RA RASN BKN003 BECMG 2623/2702 01012KT -RA TEMPO 2700/2709 03015G25KT 2000 RASN BKN004 PROB30 TEMPO 2700/2703 0800 SN BKN001 BECMG 2709/2712 9999 NSW FEW010 SCT035 TEMPO 2712/2718 3000 SHRASN BKN008

 

That stansted airport TAF is about the least certain I have seen

 

Light rain, becoming heavy rain/rain-snow, probability of snow between midnight and 3am, but also rain-snow between midnight and 9am. Just goes to show to anybody expecting a definitive forecast, it's going to be hard to come by.

 

The joys of the UK climate

 

SK

[Harsh Climate]

***UPDATE***

 

It's looking good for us guys further north, Been keeping an eye on the precipitation over ireland and the heavy stuff is a good 30/40 miles further north than progged on the NAE model. Just compare the NAE chart for 12noon and the radar at 2pm today!

Edited December 26, 2014 by Harsh Climate

[Mapantz]

I hope we get some posts with snowy pics tonight/tomorrow?!

The hi-res NetWx 4km model isn't far off, perhaps it is a touch ahead of forecast timings?

[Harsh Climate]

You can also see what I'm saying from the bbc precipitation map at 3pm. 

 

 

If someone could post images of 2pm radar and bbc predicted precipitation at 3pm ; ) you will be able to see what I mean.

Edited December 26, 2014 by Harsh Climate

[feb1991blizzard]

 

***UPDATE***

 

It's looking good for us guys further north, Been keeping an eye on the precipitation over ireland and the heavy stuff is a good 30/40 miles further north than progged on the NAE model. Just compare the NAE chart for 12noon and the radar at 1pm today!

 

 

 

Surely you need to compare the 12 noon NAE prediction with the 12 noon radar, else your not comparing like for like.

[Polar Maritime]

Maybe of interest to some..https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82079-model-output-discussion-the-final-stretch-to-christmas/page-75#entry3097941

[Harsh Climate]

Surely you need to compare the 12 noon NAE prediction with the 12 noon radar, else your not comparing like for like.

 

 

Doesn't matter as the radar will be not too different from 2pm to 3pm, but will be vastly different to the bbc graphics/NAE at 3pm. The point I have made is clear to see!

Edited December 26, 2014 by Harsh Climate

[Nick F]

That stansted airport TAF is about the least certain I have seen

 

Light rain, becoming heavy rain/rain-snow, probability of snow between midnight and 3am, but also rain-snow between midnight and 9am. Just goes to show to anybody expecting a definitive forecast, it's going to be hard to come by.

 

The joys of the UK climate

 

SK

 

Yes, as Ian Fergusson hints at in the MOD, evaporative cooling palying a major role in the rain to snow risk, which is a tricky thing to forecast (as it appears with the Stansted TAF) - as it's often dependent on precip. intensity which we all know can vary locally. The time of day will help too, with nocturnal cooling after dark helping speed the rate of cooling  along with evap cooling.

Edited December 26, 2014 by Nick F

[Matty M]

Didn't think the precip would track that far into NI, possibly a little further north than currently EURO4 shows.

 

But that could also mean more cold air advection when the wrap around clears from the southEast early tomorrow.

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

Hey guys! I live on South coast,  haven't seen a flake of snow in years (literally),  is it worth driving over 100 miles to the midlands (an back) to see the elusive snow?

[steveinsussex]

Hey guys! I live on South coast,  haven't seen a flake of snow in years (literally),  is it worth driving over 100 miles to the midlands (an back) to see the elusive snow?

 

no

[andy989]

NW Wales here, roughly 110m ASL, a spot that usually does well for snow when we get the cold, it is raining at the moment. I suspect the summits might be white by morning though. An extremely marginal event I think, for me at least, good luck to all. 

 The beginnings of sleet here now, might turn increasingly into snow as the rain gets heavier, which by looking at the radar, is due to do so soon. Must say it's pretty cool out there. 

Edited December 26, 2014 by andy989

[terrier]

Doesn't matter as the radar will be not too different from 2pm to 3pm, but will be vastly different to the bbc graphics/NAE at 3pm. The point I have made is clear to see!

to be honest I don't think West Yorkshire will see any snowfall as such. Think Sheffield south will see some. But seeing latest bbc forecast the snow looks like missing West Yorkshire area

[Harsh Climate]

to be honest I don't think West Yorkshire will see any snowfall as such. Think Sheffield south will see some. But seeing latest bbc forecast the snow looks like missing West Yorkshire area

 

Not saying we will get the 5-10cm those in north midlands will get, but looking at the radar it looks to me like we could see 2-4cm rather than the nothing it looked like this morning.

[Bristawl Si]

Hey guys! I live on South coast,  haven't seen a flake of snow in years (literally),  is it worth driving over 100 miles to the midlands (an back) to see the elusive snow?

Dont be so silly - have a few beers instead.

[Harsh Climate]

Dont be so silly - have a few beers instead.

 

I disagree If he wants to see some snow and has the time to do so, why not?? 

 

If you are to I'd recomend the hills of derbyshire or near stoke.

[fizz511]

Hey guys! I live on South coast,  haven't seen a flake of snow in years (literally),  is it worth driving over 100 miles to the midlands (an back) to see the elusive snow?

Depends how keen you are....?

But I would say that you'd have to head to Derbyshire to be sure of success