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Captain Shortwave

Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

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Not sure if relevant to this thread but a Farmer friend of mine who runs 2 snow ploughs has had a heads up email from local counsil east sussex to be available between the 27th-29th incase of snow, I presume local authority have some sort of meteorological info at their disposal ?

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Two members now support the GFS P 06z: post-14819-0-03227100-1419269191_thumb.ppost-14819-0-55868600-1419269191_thumb.p

 

So remains background noise. About 4 support the 12z GFS P. The rest are pretty run of the mill charts.

 

UKMO at D6: post-14819-0-00657300-1419269459_thumb.g

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With the current chopping and changing amongst various models, It must be difficult to decide when to issue warnings for the approaching storm.

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The GEFS at D12 doesn't need a commentary: post-14819-0-90072200-1419270122_thumb.p

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I love how unpredictable weather is. I know people are frustrated and would like more clarification, but it would be sooo boring if metriologists could foresee the weather in detail a week ahead. It's such a fascinating week ahead, and in my view we are lucky that it coincides with the Christmas week. We have a period full of exciting possibilities, so let's all sit back with a glass of mulled wine and enjoy. Merry Chrostmas everyone!

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It`s been a while since I have seen a 0m / ground level wet bulb! It`s ok saying snow this snow that but if you want it on the floor, 100m or less is  really required. Almost the whole of the UK are down to those levels. I can certainly see why the GFS is showing that precipitation chart.

14122806_2212.gifgfs-2-138.png?12

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Very nice chart indeed.. I'd imagine there would be snow in the SE with that chart.. Where's Nick Sussex? 

 

UN144-21.GIF?22-18

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Different organisations/companies provide forecast advice to different councils. The heads-up to them for next weekend is solely in precautionary (not prescriptive) response to some of the forecast solutions being chewed-over currently. 00z EC, for example, shifted goalposts with it's snow threat/distribution charts into that period, yielding a more bothersome signal down across Midlands into parts of the south, but it's all a moveable feast of course.

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Thank you Ian Ferguson for clarifying that its most appreciated , merry almost Christmas

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Some decent agreement at 96 hrs from ecm,gfs and ukmo.

 

What now?

 

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ECMWF 12z at 96 hours is showing the dilemma ongoing, WAA up into Greenland or WAA up into Scandinavia with the PV/lobes blocking each path on different model runs as the ridge looks for an opening to move towards higher latitudes. Air hockey at its best

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Exeter has a snowy London at T144hrs as the weekend low sinks SE into the near continent. It will be interesting watching the likely track of this system if nothing else.

As the cliche goes: more runs needed.

As the cliche goes: all eyes on the ECM (which has played Scrooge of late)

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UKMO at t144 now update could be quite chilly in the SE next weekend

 

UW144-21.GIF?22-18UW144-7.GIF?22-18

That,s a promising UK T144 chart and continues the possibility of further ridging north or north east.

I think there is enough in the models so far to remain upbeat.

We have a chilly Christmas and Boxing day with frosts and then a reasonable prospect of snow for some areas around the 28th,even at lower levels.

Beyond that a cold High maybe?

It,s certainly too far out to worry about the Atlantic returning.Let,s see where we go with the track of the post Christmas low.

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ECM looks like dropping that low straight through the UK,  it should follow its morning run through days 6 and 7.

ECM1-120.GIF?22-0

 

Day 6

ECM1-144.GIF?22-0

This run doesn't really deliver anything but given it's difference to the GFS, it is worth waiting to see how things develop.

Edited by Captain shortwave

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Here are the ecm,gfs and ukmo at 120 hrs. :unknw:

 

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ECM certainly not a million miles away from the UKMO at T144......cold following in behind the low.

 

ECM1-144.GIF?22-0

 

 

Actually the uppers aren't that great though.

 

ECM0-144.GIF?22-0

Edited by Long haul to mild

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Hardly run-of-the-mill UKMO output...!!

 

A theme on the GEFS. eg ENS-1 :  post-14819-0-47349900-1419272636_thumb.p 

 

By T240: post-14819-0-07002300-1419272661_thumb.p

 

Would give some brief interest for the weekend but the GEFS that show this have a sinking high by D10 on all members (five go with this route). The UKMO is very clean compared to the GEFS showing this.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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Ecm gives a brief cold shot then the high sinks.Think that for me shows the way forward threw xmas and well into the new year.Just to note the uppers on ecm at 144 hours are o,-4

Edited by swfc

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