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Captain Shortwave

Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

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ice day tuesday on 06Z, pattern just that little bit further west, maybe the cold can hang on a bit longer,

 

tomorrows low, most of us need it much further south, too far north for my location, and many others in the south

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Looks very much like a zonal pattern setting up after the weekend. I was heavily sceptical about any cold lasting longer than a few days. Also looks like the milder weather will last a while.[/quot

Really annoying post Alert!!!!!!

True. It is only the weather.

Enjoy your day and be thankful that we were not around 100 years ago. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82101-christmas-truce-of-1914/

Merry Christmas everyone

fergieweather, on 25 Dec 2014 - 01:05, said:

Happy Christmas all. As a final sign-off before indulgence tomorrow, I cite the UKMO Dep. Chief an hour ago, reference whatever you may read and/or assess into the future: "...confidence tapers off quickly toward the end of next week, and further changes in emphasis are possible in the coming days."

Enjoy the festive period!

john lets not be too hasty..if the MO are still struggling re boxing day (26th)..then this to me suggests that the experts are struggling..mild,cold, who knows..lets get one problem re boxing day low out the way before being too hasty..merry Christmas too one and all..

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Merry Christmas to you all, thank you to the Mods who do a great job, and also the members who make the site what it is.

Doom and gloom with the charts this morning, dont worry they will have had one too many sherrys last night.  :w00t:

 

Merry Christmas  :smiliz19:

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My first post on here and would like to wish you all a merry christmas. Been watching with a keen eye trying to learn was much as possible for the last Month. Love the banter, disagreements and technical speak. You guys rock  :yahoo:  Hopefully as next year progresses and I learn more I will be able to join in! 

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ice day tuesday on 06Z, pattern just that little bit further west, maybe the cold can hang on a bit longer,

 

tomorrows low, most of us need it much further south, too far north for my location, and many others in the south

errr  you not seen the met office warnings?

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errr  you not seen the met office warnings?

 

yes... on news channel, the met o have issued a warning of upto 10cm of snow in some places.

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Well the so called zonal fi looks quite wintry on the gfs 6z op!!!850s look good.meto just issued a warning for up to 100mm of snow on boxing day

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FYI Met Office warnings - seem to be based largely upon 0z ECMWF - paints a picture of generally 1-2 inches across a wide area of England and Wales, North of the M4 (as ever!), as much as 4-6 inches up across parts of The Midlands and Lincolnshire and Southern parts of Lancashire and Yorkshire from the Weatherbell liquid equivalent output.

 

Euro4 far less keen away from higher ground:

 

14122618_2500.gif

 

Though in these situations things like evaporative cooling are rarely picked up, but Dew Points do not look supportive at this juncture on the Euro4 to lower levels:

 

14122621_2500.gif

 

Hi-Res NMM output (based upon GFS data) shows a similar picture to the ECMWF, but again marginal dew points so it is likely to come down to precipitation intensity tomorrow (as well as of course the final track of the system!).

 

Anyway enough of that for today. Merry Christmas to all and lets hope for a nice late snowy present tomorrow.

 

SK

Iv just been having a good look around and from my tipsy eyes even at 11am lol it appears we are now looking at a fairly decent snow event and given the last minute adjustments on Xmas day it's gonna take a hell of a lot people by surprise m so the met need to bring this to everyone's attention quick as Boxing Day shinanagans are gonna be disrupted by the White stuff . People with elevation need to be careful .
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Well the so called zonal fi looks quite wintry on the gfs 6z op!!!850s look good.meto just issued a warning for up to 100mm of snow on boxing day

Lol maybe even 4 inches or even 10 cm..amazing stuff, hey and it won't melt after either. This is too good to be true.

:-)

Models look wintry within the reliable timeframe, beyond that they call it Fi for a reason.

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An interesting day tomorrow..

 

 Snow is likely in some northern and central areas, more especially on hills, with some significant accumulations possible. There is also an increasing signal for snow to affect some southern areas. The areas currently at greatest risk are parts of the Midlands, and southern parts of northern England. More settled conditions are expected thereafter, although it is likely to remain cold with widespread night frosts, and with mean temperatures widely 2C or less.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

 

Merry Christmas to you and all at Net Weather and to all posters.

 

Nice to see they are going against this then

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/12/25/basis00/ukuk/prty/14122700_2500.gif

 

 

Which still worries me slightly.

Edited by winterof79
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Just watched the BBC update and they are talking of a wintry mix,  nothing unusual with up to 2cm of snow. They seemed more concerned of the rain and icy conditions that follow. Track still uncertain and hills more prone. I suspect this is based on the ECM as other models are not really that optimistic. However it looks borderline so there may be some surprises and further updates needed. Again anything south of the M4 on all models looks like rain. 25% chance for London (went as high as 45%):

 

post-14819-0-59154900-1419506388_thumb.g  D9 GEFS 06z mean: post-14819-0-74951600-1419506435_thumb.p

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Merry Christmas everyone,

 

Hopefully just one of the downs in the rollercoaster model ride.

 

No need to be down beat, plenty of chilly festive weather to come,

ukmintemp.png

 

 

 

 

and at least it's dry and sunny today, so the kids can get out and play on their new bikes and stuff like that.

 

Strat forecast still looks good , and I'm sure the charts will start looking interesting again later tomorrow.

 

Enjoy Christmas day, because it only comes once a year....

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The 2m temperatures across the UK and the bulk of Europe are shown to be below normal for the next 8 days at least

 

gfsanom_eu.png gfsnorm_eu.png gfssr_eu.png

 

Anomaly                                               Normal 2m temps                                                  Expected 2m temps

 

Snow depth by 10am Saturday according to GFS P

 

51-780PUK.GIF?25-651-580PUK.GIF?25-6

 

22:00 on Saturday the snow are increases

 

63-780PUK.GIF?25-663-580PUK.GIF?25-6

 

13:00 Sunday see's it increasing again

 

78-780PUK.GIF?25-678-580PUK.GIF?25-6

 

By 13:00 on NYE the snow remains fairly stable in England though Scotland sees a slight reduction

 

150-780PUK.GIF?25-6150-580PUK.GIF?25-6

 

By 19:00 NYD we start to loose the snow as milder air is shown to move in from the west

 

180-780PUK.GIF?25-6180-580PUK.GIF?25-6

 

The first few days of 2015 then alternate between colder days and some slightly milder ones

 

198-580PUK.GIF?25-6222-580PUK.GIF?25-6

 

So a spell of snow looks likely during tomorrow and into Saturday where exactly is still open to doubt even at this late stage it remains fairly cold as we end 2014 with frost and fog beyond this temperatures may start and recover alternating with some colder temps but given its FI it will probably change tonight

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Just want to say a merry xmas and safe/happy new year to all who make netweather a fantastic place to be.The colds a coming,sorry mods x

Edited by joggs
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A very Merry Christmas from me to all my fellow weather friends. I absolutely love this forum and im hooked. I hope you all have a fanctastic day, and get totaly spoiled with presents and food :D :smiliz19:

 

Tomorrow looks interesting, many of us could finaly see snow after a 21 month wait!!!! And it would be lovely to rescue us from what could have been a snowless year...

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Merry xmas to all. I think with the amount of sprouts about to be eaten, there is also a decent chance of some renewed WAA heading up from southern England.

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Merry Xmas all

Looking through GEFS someone really needs to tell that vortex it's supposed to be in trouble ;-)

Hopefully things will change round over the next few days.

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Merry Christmas to everyone on the Netweather forum and many thanks to all who regularly contribute with interesting & informative posts! 

I've learnt so much about the atmosphere and the weather over the past few years.

It definitely does become addictive and I can't wait for some exciting wintry charts to start appearing in January 2015?

Have a great day guys & girls.

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Merry Xmas all

Looking through GEFS someone really needs to tell that vortex it's supposed to be in trouble ;-)

Hopefully things will change round over the next few days.

I think the amount of NH polar blocking on those gefs reflects the state of the strat rather than any quick changes to the trop vortex.

could well see the vortex split becoming more noticeable into week 2.

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Happy Xmas all.  Get drunk and merry before reporting back for duty here...

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