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Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas


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Mean while in the real world away from the MOD... A tragic accident has cost 6 lives in Glasgow. yes this is off topic but a timely reminder of just how unimportant the weather really is in our lives.

There is an enormous lack of respect for other people in this thread at the moment. I suggest that if one doesn't have something to add to the model discussion with a salient chart or pertinent inf

Model uncertainty throwing both operational and ensemble data into discontinuity has proved as rife as was expected a week ago - when AAM flipped to negative tendency along with GWO phasing that was i

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: London Waterloo 0m/ Leeds Bradford Airport 200m
  • Location: London Waterloo 0m/ Leeds Bradford Airport 200m

    A good 6+ hours of snow shown on the GFS P run for eastern parts of the country.

     

    One of many options on the table.

     

    150-779PUK.GIF?21-12

     

    156-779PUK.GIF?21-12

     

    162-779PUK.GIF?21-12

    Edited by Cheese Rice
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    A clean slate

     

    thanks CS

     

    couldn't agree more because i witheld posting in the last one for the fear of jumping in between someones fueds,seen prams flung across the street never mind toys being thrown out of it,

     

    all credit to the more experienced folk on here who try to explain the posabilities and outcomes of the models only to be pulled down when something doesn't show cold/snow wise or what they want to see

     

    most of the time i only browse in here,does that tell you something?

     

    any hows,please do keep a more level head chaps,we are all one comunity after all :D

     

    just an ilustration of the jma chart that Steve murr aluded to as an example

     

    post-16960-0-08427900-1419198507_thumb.g

     

    black arrow,negative tilted trough(facing se) bank

     

    blue line,more ridging into greenland,bank

     

    red arrow,a poss northeasterly later backing easterly,bank

     

    all speculative @ that range but it is a possibility.

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: East Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: East Exeter, Devon
    Posted
  • Location: Farnham, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Sunny and Dry with a Hard Frost.
  • Location: Farnham, Surrey

    Evening All. Long time no post. Always watching though.Seasons greetings to you all...I'm Orthodox so Christmas is not until the 7th Jan so a bit of wait still..but it may be white! I live in hope. Anyway, that Low on the 27th. East Coast storm surge screams out of some of those model runs...

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Time from straw clutching I think! Can the ECM be wrong at T144, yes it certainly can, remember this one!

    ECM1-144.GIF

    ECM1-120.GIF

     

    Ok so hows the 18Z going so far? In about 12 years of watching every model run almost every day, this is one of the few times where I can't make head nor tail out of the runs, nor guess where they are going next. Especially on the GFSP, where on earth are these Atlantic lows going? I suspect the GFSP is better for cold later on because of slightly more ridging towards Greenland, but that's a wild guess.

     

    gfs-0-108.png?18

    gfs-0-108.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Blimey. Look at the difference at just 132..key difference is the western Greenland/eastern canada, huge difference in pressure there... Where will this path lead us?

    12z then 18z (as attached)

    post-11585-0-89690200-1419199925_thumb.j

    post-11585-0-45306900-1419199934_thumb.j

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    But tws... Winter 75-6 wasnt cold outside the odd day or two..

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    Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

    Sorry mods, just something to lighten the mood, but I think it sums things up at the moment, plus it includes a chart!!

     

    And viewing the 18Z's out to 132, people are going to be more confused than ever because both runs look completely different to me.

     

    This is getting beyond a joke now! 

     

    :w00t:

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

    On the GFS(P) the low pressure is digging south slightly further west than on the previous run, while the general picture is more amplified. The implications could be significant

    gfs-0-132.png?18gfs-0-138.png?12

    EDIT: and then this happens... 

    gfs-0-144.png?18

    Edited by Joe Levy
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Well at 138hrs the 18z looks better with the ridging .the low and pv look weaker to be it only a transient feature

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

    Blimey. Look at the difference at just 132..key difference is the western Greenland/eastern canada, huge difference in pressure there... Where will this path lead us?

    12z then 18z (as attached)

    Blooming eck the biggest difference there is the difference in the strength of the vortex, 18z has a much weaker Canadian vortex than the 12 . Should make a slower evolution with better hights holding for longer maybe ? Shows the volatility of the models at the minute .
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    GFS(P)

     

    consistant with that northerly @ 138hrs + better hights into greeenland

     

    12zpost-16960-0-43079800-1419200321_thumb.p18zpost-16960-0-97125000-1419200337_thumb.p

     

    all nice at the moment :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    The difference between the 12z and 18z at 6 day range off the eastern seaboard is just staggering. Nothing set in stone yet I feel, pointless looking further at this run when there's such a massive difference.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashford, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Ashford, Kent

    But tws... Winter 75-6 wasnt cold outside the odd day or two..

    He's referring to flood risk/ storm surge not cold and indeed the comparisons are quite stark.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Better overall the 18z. Negatively tilted lows pointing towards Spain. 

    gfs-0-168.png?18

     

    Compared to high pressure from the 12z. 

    gfs-0-174.png?12

     

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