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Captain Shortwave

Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

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A good 6+ hours of snow shown on the GFS P run for eastern parts of the country.

 

One of many options on the table.

 

150-779PUK.GIF?21-12

 

156-779PUK.GIF?21-12

 

162-779PUK.GIF?21-12

Edited by Cheese Rice

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A clean slate

 

thanks CS

 

couldn't agree more because i witheld posting in the last one for the fear of jumping in between someones fueds,seen prams flung across the street never mind toys being thrown out of it,

 

all credit to the more experienced folk on here who try to explain the posabilities and outcomes of the models only to be pulled down when something doesn't show cold/snow wise or what they want to see

 

most of the time i only browse in here,does that tell you something?

 

any hows,please do keep a more level head chaps,we are all one comunity after all :D

 

just an ilustration of the jma chart that Steve murr aluded to as an example

 

post-16960-0-08427900-1419198507_thumb.g

 

black arrow,negative tilted trough(facing se) bank

 

blue line,more ridging into greenland,bank

 

red arrow,a poss northeasterly later backing easterly,bank

 

all speculative @ that range but it is a possibility.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Come on pub run chuck us a double gin n tonic extra ice......

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Evening All. Long time no post. Always watching though.Seasons greetings to you all...I'm Orthodox so Christmas is not until the 7th Jan so a bit of wait still..but it may be white! I live in hope. Anyway, that Low on the 27th. East Coast storm surge screams out of some of those model runs...

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Time from straw clutching I think! Can the ECM be wrong at T144, yes it certainly can, remember this one!

ECM1-144.GIF

ECM1-120.GIF

 

Ok so hows the 18Z going so far? In about 12 years of watching every model run almost every day, this is one of the few times where I can't make head nor tail out of the runs, nor guess where they are going next. Especially on the GFSP, where on earth are these Atlantic lows going? I suspect the GFSP is better for cold later on because of slightly more ridging towards Greenland, but that's a wild guess.

 

gfs-0-108.png?18

gfs-0-108.png?18

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Blimey. Look at the difference at just 132..key difference is the western Greenland/eastern canada, huge difference in pressure there... Where will this path lead us?

12z then 18z (as attached)

post-11585-0-89690200-1419199925_thumb.j

post-11585-0-45306900-1419199934_thumb.j

Edited by Weathizard

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Sorry mods, just something to lighten the mood, but I think it sums things up at the moment, plus it includes a chart!!

 

And viewing the 18Z's out to 132, people are going to be more confused than ever because both runs look completely different to me.

 

This is getting beyond a joke now! 

 

:w00t:

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The difference between the GFS operational and parallel says it all really. Nothing going to get resolved very soon.

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On the GFS(P) the low pressure is digging south slightly further west than on the previous run, while the general picture is more amplified. The implications could be significant

gfs-0-132.png?18gfs-0-138.png?12

EDIT: and then this happens... 

gfs-0-144.png?18

Edited by Joe Levy

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Well at 138hrs the 18z looks better with the ridging .the low and pv look weaker to be it only a transient feature

Edited by swfc

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Blimey. Look at the difference at just 132..key difference is the western Greenland/eastern canada, huge difference in pressure there... Where will this path lead us?

12z then 18z (as attached)

Blooming eck the biggest difference there is the difference in the strength of the vortex, 18z has a much weaker Canadian vortex than the 12 . Should make a slower evolution with better hights holding for longer maybe ? Shows the volatility of the models at the minute .

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GFS(P)

 

consistant with that northerly @ 138hrs + better hights into greeenland

 

12zpost-16960-0-43079800-1419200321_thumb.p18zpost-16960-0-97125000-1419200337_thumb.p

 

all nice at the moment :D

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The difference between the 12z and 18z at 6 day range off the eastern seaboard is just staggering. Nothing set in stone yet I feel, pointless looking further at this run when there's such a massive difference.

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But tws... Winter 75-6 wasnt cold outside the odd day or two..

He's referring to flood risk/ storm surge not cold and indeed the comparisons are quite stark.

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What's going on here?

 

 

Bit of an undercut? and the roller-coaster continues.

 

Rtavn1681.gif

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Better overall the 18z. Negatively tilted lows pointing towards Spain. 

gfs-0-168.png?18

 

Compared to high pressure from the 12z. 

gfs-0-174.png?12

 

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