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Roger J Smith

January 2015 CET forecasts

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Great stats there Timmytour. They highlight to me that Dec 2010 and March 2013 are a throwback to how cold it was regularly during Dickens' childhood in the early 1800s.

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Defining a Cold Month Year as in the top 25 coldest months for Man CET since 1700.....to qualify for this a January would need to have a mean CET of 0.4C

Looks very much like it's not going to happen this year.....but the last time we got a Cold Month Year for January was in 1979 which is a wait of 35 years, only the 49 year wait for a cold July has been longer! In contrast there were five in the 11 years 1820 to 1830!

That said it's not the longest wait we've experienced.... in the 100 years btween 1839 and 1939 there were only three such Januarys with 1879 bringing a 41 year wait to an end and 1940 bringing a 45 year wait to an end,

Here's a list of the how many years we've waited for the last Cold Month with the number of corresponding Warm months we've had in that period....only December of all the months has had no Warm months since the last Cold one! 

 

JAN..... 1979..... 7

FEB..... 1986..... 6

MAR... 2013..... 1

APR.... .1986..... 5

MAY.... 1996.... 3

JUN..... 1991.... 2

JUL...... 1965.... 7

AUG.... 1986..... 5

SEP..... 1986..... 7

OCT.... 1992..... 8

NOV... 1985..... 8

DEC... .2010..... 0

 

 

 

Good stuff. To add to that, using the 1700-2000 average, the last time we had a 10 year period where we had more below than above average months was back in 1922-1931.

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Good stuff. To add to that, using the 1700-2000 average, the last time we had a 10 year period where we had more below than above average months was back in 1922-1931.

I am very surprised that even the cool rocking 1960s had less cool months than that modest period.  I think that 1922-1931 (more so 1920-1929) period is very unusual.  Although this was a cool/cold period for April, June, August, September, November and December, this was an early period for warm Januaries, warm Februaries and warm Marches.

 

 

Defining a Cold Month Year as in the top 25 coldest months for Man CET since 1700.....to qualify for this a January would need to have a mean CET of 0.4C

Looks very much like it's not going to happen this year.....but the last time we got a Cold Month Year for January was in 1979 which is a wait of 35 years, only the 49 year wait for a cold July has been longer! In contrast there were five in the 11 years 1820 to 1830!

That said it's not the longest wait we've experienced.... in the 100 years between 1839 and 1939 there were only three such January's with 1879 bringing a 41 year wait to an end and 1940 bringing a 45 year wait to an end,

Here's a list of the how many years we've waited for the last Cold Month with the number of corresponding Warm months we've had in that period....only December of all the months has had no Warm months since the last Cold one!

I think the lack of "proper cold" months in the UK, especially in the April through November period is down to a number of reasons:-

1)  There is generally less range between the hottest and coldest months as well as less range between the coldest months and any average in the non-winter period which in turn is mainly due to

 

2)  The reduced availability or horizontal volume of very cold air (on average) to be tapped in the non-winter months which has been exacerbated in the last 30 years by

 

3)  The warming of the Arctic and the North Atlantic with the associated loss of Sea Ice needed to generate very cold air over the North Pole and/or Greenland for the UK.  This is less important in the actual winter months and March since very cold air can still be generated over Eurasia in lieu of the warmer Arctic hence the very cold December 2010 and March 2013.  However with the absence of a sustained and widespread volume of proper wintry cold air over Eurasia even in a "very cold" Eurasian summer, a cold northern North Atlantic and a cold North Pole and/or cold Greenland is then required for very cold non-winter months in the UK.  This means that with a warm North Atlantic and a warm North Pole and/or warm Greenland, very cold months in the April through November period in the UK will be virtually impossible or at least very hard to achieve.

 

4)  In concert with the above there has also been increased dominance and increased intensity of Maritime Tropical and Continental Tropical airmasses and reduced potency and reduced dominance of Maritime Polar and Continental Polar/Arctic airmasses in the April through November period as well as the December through March period.

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Looks like today could be a bit colder than forecast a few days ago, with minima widely below freezing and where the fog lingers maxima not getting much above 0C (if at all) today could give the CET a bit of a hit, with it only being a few days old.

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2.43 perhaps he meant?

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At the moment that link is showing +2.95 as the anomaly, would have to think that was relative to the 1-3 Jan average for 1961-90. I have posted the 1981-2010 CET daily and cumulative means above (a few posts back now). Note that the cumulative CET remains in a rather narrow range of 4.3 to 4.5 most of January and reaches the lowest values of 4.3 from 9 to 14 January.

 

Looking at the two-decimal values in my data file, I see that 8 January is the coldest day at 4.27 C. In this recent 30-year data, the temperatures then warm up slightly from mid-January to mid-February and a second cold period sets in with means of 3.4 to 4.0 from 14 to 20 Feb, and the 4.3 cumulative means return in February for the dates 18-26 Feb. In between they get as high as 4.9 for 6-7 Feb. The coldest day is a tie between 7 January and 14 February at 3.4 C. In December the coldest was 3.7 on 20th.

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Minimum today is -0.9C, while maxima look like reaching a little over 9C, so a drop to 5.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS parallel has the CET at:

5.5C to the 6th (7.2)

5.7C to the 7th (6.8]

5.6C to the 8th (5.3)

6.1C to the 9th (9.8] [Daily record: 10.7C]

6.6C to the 10th (11.7) [Daily record: 11.1C]

6.5C to the 11th (4.9)

6.6C to the 12th (7.3)

6.7C to the 13th (7.8]

6.6C to the 14th (5.8]

 

Another very mild first half looking certain, with the chances of a below average month looking pretty slim already. With 11.7C forecasted for the 10th, there is even a chance of beating the highest daily mean ever record in January, which is 11.6C on both the 3rd in 1932, and the 23rd in 1834. Interesting times!

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BFTV

 

It's amazing that the all-time January daily CET is under threat.  Just to put that into perspective, how many years have daily CET records been recorded for?  Am I correct in saying 1772, so that would be over 7500 January days to beat?

 

How rare is it to break the daily CET record for the whole month?  How many times has this happened in recent times? (You don't need to answer these questions if it involves a lot of research!)

 

My prediction of 5.2C for January is now looking too low and once again, I am left looking for a cooler 2nd half of Jan to bring it down..

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Hadley's CET page has now updated

 

5.3c to the 4th

 

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

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BFTV

 

It's amazing that the all-time January daily CET is under threat.  Just to put that into perspective, how many years have daily CET records been recorded for?  Am I correct in saying 1772, so that would be over 7500 January days to beat?

 

 

I may be wrong but that daily record is only for the day in question so only 240 or so.

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I may be wrong but that daily record is only for the day in question so only 240 or so.

As I read it though, the 11.6C is the highest recorded daily mean for any January day. So that means any January day ever recorded from 1-31 Jan since 1772.

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As I read it though, the 11.6C is the highest recorded daily mean for any January day. So that means any January day ever recorded from 1-31 Jan since 1772.

Aye you're right, I didn't read the bottom bit of BFTV's post.

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As I read it though, the 11.6C is the highest recorded daily mean for any January day. So that means any January day ever recorded from 1-31 Jan since 1772.

Minima recorded the night of 2nd/3rd January 1932

Tynemouth: 55F

Liverpool, Greenwich, Birr Castle, Chester: 54F

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It is indeed outstanding how these mild records keep toppling with barely a murmer from the Netweather audience.

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It is indeed outstanding how these mild records keep toppling with barely a murmer from the Netweather audience.

 

It's signs of a fast changing climate.  As BFTV said, it is fascinating for weather stat fans!

 

http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/Winter-start-weird-weather-seen-spring-flowers/story-25768793-detail/story.html

 

Like a lot of others on here, the mild January we are experiencing once again is a source of frustration.  (There are some good points though- such as no black ice to slip on when I go running!)

 

We seem to have to put up with long stretches of the same type of weather pattern, so fingers crossed that we experience a prolonged blocked pattern setup before winter's end.  Once March arrives though, it's all eyes to warmer spring-like weather for me.

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It is indeed outstanding how these mild records keep toppling with barely a murmur from the Netweather audience.

I think the lack of "murmurs" here is merely due to the fact that these mild/heat records have become so common over the last 25 years or so that it is just not surprising or exciting anymore.  I'd imagine there would be more surprise and excitement if the cold of December 2010/March 2013/July 1965/October 1974 calibre made a sudden unexpected comeback.

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BFTV

 

It's amazing that the all-time January daily CET is under threat.  Just to put that into perspective, how many years have daily CET records been recorded for?  Am I correct in saying 1772, so that would be over 7500 January days to beat?

 

How rare is it to break the daily CET record for the whole month?  How many times has this happened in recent times? (You don't need to answer these questions if it involves a lot of research!)

 

My prediction of 5.2C for January is now looking too low and once again, I am left looking for a cooler 2nd half of Jan to bring it down..

 

Might take me a few days to get back to you on that one!

 

The 10th is still looking good for an average in the mid to high 11s, so still threatening a daily average record high for January.

How different would the atmosphere in this thread be if we were threatening the cold record, -11.9C in 1838!?

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We've become used to daily maxima temp records tumbling in recent years that it has almost become the norm, just like the run of consistently above average CET mean months.

 

Would be interesting to note the last time we broke a minimum CET daily mean value.. not been many of them.

 

Our weather does appear to be transforming into long locked in periods of similar fayre - currently in a very mild phase.. after some colder phases in the period Apr 08 - Jun 13 cancelled out by shorter lived milder periods. Prior to this we had experienced an exceptionally long very mild phase roughly Feb 97 - Apr 08 broken by very shortlived colder periods for example Nov 05 - Mar 06, first half of 2001.

 

Current times feel very much like the May 06 - Apr 08 period.

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We've become used to daily maxima temp records tumbling in recent years that it has almost become the norm, just like the run of consistently above average CET mean months.

 

Would be interesting to note the last time we broke a minimum CET daily mean value.. not been many of them.

 

Our weather does appear to be transforming into long locked in periods of similar fayre - currently in a very mild phase.. after some colder phases in the period Apr 08 - Jun 13 cancelled out by shorter lived milder periods. Prior to this we had experienced an exceptionally long very mild phase roughly Feb 97 - Apr 08 broken by very shortlived colder periods for example Nov 05 - Mar 06, first half of 2001.

 

Current times feel very much like the May 06 - Apr 08 period.

 

I think the last time we set a new record for the lowest daily mean was the 21st of December 2010. We actually set new record lows for the 19th, 20th and 21st, with -6.8C, -7.0C and -5.9C respectively.

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I think the last time we set a new record for the lowest daily mean was the 21st of December 2010. We actually set new record lows for the 19th, 20th and 21st, with -6.8C, -7.0C and -5.9C respectively.

Didn't December 2010 have the lowest average CET minima in the series for that month?

To answer my own question - yes. Dec 2010 CET minima averaged -3.8C, comfortably beating the old record of -2.7C set in 1890 and matched in 1981.

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